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The wisdom of the CLR crowd – President Trump or not? June 10, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Over to you after the wisdom of the CLR on Brexit (the collective sense being that it would be a tight Bremain). Is he going to make it or not?

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1. Joe - June 10, 2016

I think yes, President Trump. The way when he started everyone thought it would be a one week wonder. And it just kept rolling on and on. And nothing he did or said stopped it. It will continue and it’s the GoP’s turn.

On Brexit I see Denis Skinner says Leave and I saw Eamonn McCann on the telly last night saying the same. I’m with them.

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fergal - June 10, 2016

Genuine question Joe- if that happens who will help these areas
http://inequalitybriefing.org/brief/briefing-43-the-poorest-regions-of-the-uk-are-the-poorest-in-northern-
currently in receipt of social and regional funds from the EU
David Cameron and Gideon Osborne or maybe even Bojo?

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Joe - June 10, 2016

Jeremy Corbyn perhaps. Phil?

I don’t buy this thing that England / Britain will be Tory for a generation. Like everywhere else it’s there to be won for the left. I think a genuine leftish social democrat like Corbyn, leading a reinvigorated Labour Party, has every chance. The Labour Party won elections in the UK before it was in the EEC. No reason it couldn’t do so again post-Brexit.

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2. Phil - June 10, 2016

It’s not going to happen. Trump’s completely out of control, and he doesn’t handle personal attacks well – which is to say, he obsesses over personal attacks and puts immense amounts of effort into countering them. He’s come this far by turning the primaries into one long display of bullying and boasting, but that’s not going to work from now on. I don’t believe he’ll be able to stand the heat, or the party will be able to put up with him, for very much longer. What the Republicans will do if he pulls out late, Lord only knows. But I’ll be amazed (and disappointed) if he is the candidate.

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sonofstan - June 10, 2016

He will be the candidate. It’s Clinton’s to lose, adn she’s capable of it, not least because of the misogyny she will encounter along the way.

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Gewerkschaftler - June 10, 2016

In computer security there’s the concept of the ‘attack surface’. Basically the more complicated the hardware and software is and the more interfaces it has with the outside world, the more insecure it is a priori. In a securish system you want this surface to be as small as possible.

Wall-St-Woman and the Clintons as a clan (including the charming daughter married into Goldmann-Sachs) have a massive political attack surface. Sander’s was much smaller.

Trump’s advisors are smart enough to exploit this to the max.

Despite this probably a Wall-St-Woman win, but significantly she will be even more distrusted by a majority of US citizens before she even begins. (To start more wars and transfer more wealth and power to the oligarchic classes going by her previous record.)

I’m not sure that I could bring myself to vote against Trump and for her if I was a US citizen.

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Gewerkschaftler - June 10, 2016

That went in the wrong place.

Of course she will call misogyny every time someone points out how damaging her type of politics is to everyone except the billionaire classes, and their helpers and apologists.

The damage extends disproportionately to women who are collectively poorer. Who’s the misogynist in practice?

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3. 6to5against - June 10, 2016

Trump has a republican majority among the non-college-educated white vote to work with, but he would have to increase the vote there from 62% to something close to 70% to win with that demographic alone. That might be possible, but he has to do it without further alienating the black/asian/latino votes.

Even if he delivers a 2/3 majority on a 2/3 turnout among that demographic, a small swing against him elsewhere swings things back to Hilary.

If I was running his campaign, I think I’d spend the next few months being conciliatory to all minority groups, and women. He doesnt need them to vote for him – he just doesnt want to increase the turnout in those demographics – and hope that all the things he has already said will deliver a large majority among the bigot vote.

But there are so many angry white men out there. And not all the non-college-educated can be induced to vote for somebody who is so obvioulsy working against their interests.

My guess is that we’ll see a lot of bluster over the next few months and a few close opinion polls, but that HRC will win big. I’m no fan of the Clintons, but in a Clinton/Trump match-up, I think she’d get my vote.

The big risk for the Clinton campaign is what SoS said last week – some people could vote for Trump just for its entertainment value.

And Events, of course.

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4. Tawdy - June 10, 2016

I`d like to say vote for none of the above. But, there is a very significant outcome for whoever, Trump or Clinton, gets elected, we`re all fucked anyway.

Now I`m not in favour of the tinfoil hat stuff, but, what if any real difference is there between them. The money can work with either one and that`s the controlling factor. Hillary is already bought and who`s to say that Donald is not ?

So, to me, who will cost the money the most ?

It looks to me like a yellow pack president and Trump is out there by miles.

I did say we`re fucked either way lads.

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5. irishelectionliterature - June 10, 2016

Don’t get this he can’t win, he can. I find it hard to be enthused in any way by Hilary Clinton. Whereas a lot of the talk has been of a Third Party candidate from the right , a credible Third Party one from The Left of Clinton could do big damage to her.
There seems to be a few Saunders fans going towards Jill Stein of The Greens and if that gathers any momentum it could be what gets Trump over the line.
Events too…. an awful thing to say but some kind of ISIS Terrorist attack in the US or one that hits US people abroad could drive a lot of voters towards Trump.

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irishelectionliterature - June 12, 2016

The atrocity carried out in Orlando ,sadly might push him up in the polls.

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6. Pasionario - June 10, 2016

Clinton will win comfortably. She might even carry states like Missouri, Arizona, and Montana that haven’t gone Democratic in a generation. A better candidate (I don’t mean that in an ideological sense, she’s just wooden and crap at campaigning), such as Biden or even Sanders, would be heading for an absolute landslide.

Trump is just too polarizing to be able to win a majority in a country that is less white every year. And he has so much baggage, it makes Clinton look like she’s flying Ryanair. Everyone from George Bush to Sanders is going to pull the lever for Clinton. It’ll be like LBJ and Goldwater in 1964. The centre-right will pummel the far right.

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sonofstan - June 10, 2016

I dunno. Goldwater was an ideologue. Trump is empty of everything except ego and ambition.

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7. gendjinn - June 10, 2016

Trump shouldn’t win, but he can. Clinton should win in a landslide, but she is such a poor campaigner with so many vulnerabilities that she could snatch defeat etc.

I think it’s too early. I wouldn’t be completely sure Trump will be the nominee. He is so atrociously bad for the GOP that the billionaire class has got to be figuring out how to buy him out of the race. All they need to do is parachute in some blank slate photogenic Republican spouting the current incarnation of “Compassionate Conservatism” and Clinton is in big trouble.

So I’m holding off until the conventions at the end of next month before trying to be wrong about the election.

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WorldbyStorm - June 11, 2016

I think events could be significant, and it is just possible Trump might win, though I also think your point about Trump being pulled by the Rep establishment is far from implausible. Some mutterings the last few days about this. I think in the end he will be the candidate, but… hey.

Just on Clinton. She’s not the greatest campaigner, but I wonder is ‘poor’ the word to describe her. Looking at the 2008 primaries and her Senate elections she actually did pretty well, was strongly mobilising force in certain demographics and so on. I think part of her problem is actually that in Sanders she has had an oddly charismatic (albeit one with a perhaps large but still limited appeal) rival. And running against Obama back in 2008 was always going to be a nightmare given his skill set as a politician. She also is a bit more popular in polling than sometimes she’s given credit for. I’ve huge criticisms of her approach (too cosy with the establishment, hugely mixed messages, obviously nowhere near left wing enough, or even left wing in some functional ways) but is it clear she is a net negative for the Democrats? I guess you’re right re holding off until the conventions. Thing is on the economy, the broader narrative, etc, this is actually a good election for Democrats to be contesting – say not dissimilar to the way Bush the Senior contested a handy election in 1988, even after two terms of Reagan.

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gendjinn - June 11, 2016

Trump is the overwhelming favourite for sure. Anything other is highly unlikely but not yet implausible.

HRC had a $500k dinner at her house with a tent over the driveway so no one could see who came. If she is telling the business establishment that they will get their corporate picks on the supreme court they will be less worried about Trump damaging the GOP.

Poor campaigner – her prepared public speaking style and the way she panics at bad news. The campaigns in 08 & 16 panicked at every sign of bad news and when feeling threatened indulged in underhand tactics, when staying strong, sticking to your positive message would have weathered the problem infinitely better. HRC picked an atrocious campaign team in 08 and this time picked David Brock – the mind and gorge doth f*cking vomit.

The bulk of the strength of the Clinton campaigns was the Democratic machine they had on their side. They are nothing if not masterful in maintaining connections (google “the Dublin Dinner” with Abedin for example). They cleared the field this year and lined up every single establishment Dem all the way through big city mayors. Basically everyone that ever wanted a future in the Dem party was brought on side. Plus they got to see how HRC paid back those who didn’t support her in 08.

As I look at the wreckage on the Dem primary field this sentence keeps rolling around my head “If you don’t care how you win, few will care how you’re beaten.” and I wonder how the GOP will steal this election like they did 2000 and 2004.

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8. oliverbohs - June 11, 2016

I would expect a campaign by HTC full of moralising and high dudgeon in regard to how anyone could ever think of not voting for her. The hypocrisy will almost but not quite match the smell of bullshit off the Donald. They would like to frame it in the same way as Chirac did when he ran off vs le Pen in the 90s. But at some superficial level HTC will need to throw a bone to the working poor in the shape of a so-called living wage, for instance. And that might just be enough

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