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Chaos in British politics after a Brexit for who? June 22, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

The crocodile tears on the right for the working class in the UK in relation to Brexit is rather sickening. It’s become something of a trope. For example here’s a comment – and in fairness I don’t want to suggest the person commenting is insincere – from this Fintan O’Toole article which kind of sums it up.

Best article I have read on motivations behind Brexit. I do not fully agree with the conclusion that “Labour will likely tumble further into division and introspection”. If Brexit happened, the conservatives would be the very first to disintegrate, allowing Labour an opportunity to reconnect with its natural support base, if it wants to take the opportunity.
Still, after the killing of Jo Cox, voters will likely reluctantly opt for no change.

Except, except, two thoughts strike. The natural support base of the LP hasn’t actually gone that far away. The LP still has significant political support in the British polity despite significant transformations in the working class. It could and should be better, but that’s a slightly different argument.

And why on earth does the commenter believe that it is the Tories who will be hardest hit by Brexit? Anything but I’d have thought. The current leadership will be swapped out, as it were, for Johnson and Gove et al. After all their brand of Leave will have been the victors and most crucially far closer to power than UKIP. It gets better for them. Farage etc will suddenly have no issue as such to fight on. Sure, they can present themselves as a rightward populist alternative to the Tories, but unless Gove and Johnson renege on their stated approach in a Brexit they will hardly be more popular than they were at previous elections. Perhaps they will try to make hay with the working class. It’s possible.

In fact it is only in a Bremain that the Tories will really be up against it. For UKIP will remain in play fully, still pushing for ‘independence’. Johnson and Gove will be marginalised – despite representing a significant cohort of Tory MPs and more widely arguably the majority of Tory members and voters. And these are young enough men and women with considerable ambition that will hardly be stymied by this setback profound though it may be.

For the BLP, well, the situation is different again. They’re stuck in Brexit as an overwhelmingly pro-EU formation, MPs, members and even supporters, outside the EU. In Bremain they’re still up against it from UKIP, but that latter may – as has been largely the case, find it more to its advantage to pick off Tory MPs or try to bring them over to it (particularly if there’s a change of leadership in UKIP).

None of this is to argue for the merits or otherwise of Brexit, merely to suggest that in this specific respect a remain is going to be entertaining.


1. benmadigan - June 22, 2016

there are also UK constitutional issues to consider – if brexit wins, how will a mainly Remain Westminster parliament deal with it? Since the referendum is not legally binding but is merely an advisory exercise?
And what happens if brexit wins in England but not elsewhere in the UK? Are people in NI, Scotland and Wales to lose their EU citizenship against their will?



2. ThorsHammer&Sickle - June 23, 2016

A massive issue for Labour is that much of UKIP’s support comes from them. If it is Bremain then they won’t get that support back as they will be seen as traitors/quislings. If it is Brexit then UKIP will likely continue claiming to represent the working class and we could see a re-alignment with the Tories representing the pro-brexit conservatives and UKIP as a populist party taking votes from the ultra-right but also the ordinary working class.
No-one knows where this could lead. The pro-eu tories and right wing labour forming a party?


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