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Scotland’s Exit? June 27, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Observer/Guardian reporting some amazing shifts in polling patterns in Scotland on foot of Brexit. I thought when reading the piece that the Guardian might be overstating it when it mentioned a surge. Seems not:

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times indicated an almost direct reversal of the result of the 2014 referendum, with 52% in favour of independence, up seven points, and 48% against, down seven points.

The snapshot of 620 adults also found that 52% thought Scotland was likely to become independent within 10 years, rising from 30% when the same question was asked in April.

A poll for the Sunday Post that asked respondents how they would vote if a second referendum were held tomorrow, revealed 59% would vote yes to independence, 32% no and 9% undecided.

There’s online polling figures that seem to sustain the idea of a marked shift in sentiment in Scotland. Of course it is early days, much will happen before we get close to a sniff of a referendum. But in the prevailing crisis, for this is a crisis, this sort of hardening of a pro-Independence vote spells yet further trouble to whoever takes up the reins in London. And one further point, even for those who aren’t quite the way to an Independence position, this further stat should be thought-provoking:

62% backed Sturgeon’s decision to fight to keep Scotland in the EU.

So that figures includes those both for and against independence.

Unintended consequence, how are you?

Comments»

1. sonofstan - June 27, 2016

This is interesting.
Points out that there are, in fact, three juridictions, notionally ‘British’ that are not in the EU – IoM, Jersey and Guernsey, and that, while England and Wales are much, much bigger, the idea of multinational states that have portions in and portions out of the EU is not constitutionally impossible.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/27/de-toxifying-the-uks-eu-exit-process-a-multi-national-compromise-is-possible/

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rockroots - June 27, 2016

That actually looks more feasible than I would have thought.
I’d wondered could Gibraltar opt to become a Scottish dependency and thus remain within the EU in the event of independence?

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WorldbyStorm - June 27, 2016

Good to see, politically is it feasible? Could be one of those instances where everything else is less feasible.

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2. benmadigan - June 27, 2016

I don’t think the rise in support for scottish independence was an “unintended consequence”. The break-up of the UK was very much on the cards with a brexit vote.
https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/02/14/the-english-question-faq/

It remains to be seen whether Westminster will “allow” it or whether they can stop it. Same goes for Ireland –
Rather than posturing about as England’s new best friend, let’s hope Mr Kenny realises he has 26 allies in europe who will probably support Scottish independence and a Re-united ireland within the EU (as the people voted). Half a loaf is better than no bread

One final point – I’m not at all sure that Art 50 will ever be activated. Despite his promises, Mr Cameron has refused to do so and kicked it into the long grass. Will his successor do the same?https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/06/26/after-brexit-englands-difficulty-is-ireland-and-scotlands-opportunity/

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