They’re back? Truth is they’ve never gone away. July 7, 2016
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
That’s the thought that strikes viewing the latest poll from the IT. Looks like the fall of Ind/Others may be a real phenomenon, but here it is FF that picks up when compared to the General Election:
Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down two points); Fianna Fáil, 33 per cent (up nine); Labour, 5 per cent (down two points); Sinn Féin, 16 per cent (up two) and Independents/ Others, 22 per cent (down eight).
And:
Labour is only marginally ahead of the Green Party (4 per cent), with AAA (2 per cent) and Social Democrats (2 per cent) not far behind.
Meanwhile, for those hoping to capitalise on some newfound anti-EU sentiment… well,
Asked about the Brexit decision in the British referendum, a massive majority (81 per cent) thought the British were wrong to vote leave and there was overwhelming support for Ireland remaining in the European Union.
And this:
The “wrong” number was highest in Dublin, with 84 per cent of all respondents saying that the UK had made the wrong decision.
More broadly:
Dublin is the most pro-EU region, with 90 per cent of respondents in favour of staying in. However the other regions – rest of Leinster and Munster at 85 per cent, Connacht-Ulster at 86 per cent – are hardly far behind.
Support for remaining in the EU rises from 85 per cent among the youngest voters to 89 per cent among the oldest.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
I suppose we’ll have to start paying attention to these polls again now, what with internal FG turmoil, cabinet turmoil, government paralysis, and thus probable general election within 12 months.
Quite likely that support for Independents will be squeezed as the stable government narrative takes hold. I predicted to a friend of mine that the next govt would be an FG/SF coalition. We’re heading back to the 2 and a half party scenario with Labour’s mudguard role being taken by SF. If SF do well, it could be more a 3 party scenario. But FF will not coalesce with them because they see SF as having taken over some of their territory.
So FG/SF coalition after next election, SF in power north and south. And things to carry on much as they are.
LikeLike
Still can’t see an FG/SF mash up…. Regarding the stable government narrative I wonder will parties that rule out going in with other parties suffer?
LikeLike
We’ll just have to wait and see IEL. But if it happens, remember you heard it first from Joe – the man who predicted a 60/40 win for Remain in the UK’s EU referendum…
LikeLike
But which independents are down? Is it the IA & right INDs that went (or didn’t go) into “govt” with FG?
I can’t see any reason for people to drop the left IND for FF. But I have every confidence that the line being pushed by the punditocracy will be the public reject left wing ideas again.
LikeLike
The FF figure is fairly out of kilter with the other results from Millward Brown, Red C and B&A (6% above the B&A figure). It is though the first post-GE poll from Ipsos-MRBI so could represent a new normal for them of high FF numbers, perhaps derived from re-weighting the samples against the new GE numbers versus the old GE numbers; alternatively it could just be a rogue poll that is over the top on FF numbers. Wait for the next one I suppose is the answer, though the bandwagon might have taken hold by then…
LikeLike