Polls and The Parties July 8, 2016Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
The the most recent poll shows a rise for FF, a rise for SF, a drop for Labour and Fine Gael as well as a drop in support for Ind/Others which includes AAAPBP.
Looking at Adrian Kavanaghs Predictions…
FF on 33% will be fielding more candidates than they did at the last election. So theoretically they should find it easier to have female candidates on the tickets. Indeed if they had any sense gender directives would be issued to most constituencies and the 30% should be reached easily. They will hover up second seats countrywide and may even start winning second seats in Dublin.
Fine Gael would have difficulty on 24%. There will be a good number of male ex TDs trying to get on tickets. They will probably have to run fewer candidates too. Will Michael Noonan and other veterans bother running again, especially if they are sidelined or demoted by a new leader? Fine Gael will have more competition from FF in Dublin and they won’t get the same bounce that they did from Labour transfers either. They could easily end up at 2002 seat levels.
As for Labour, you’d wonder if they will all run again? Willie Penrose, Joan Burton and Jan O’Sullivan could easily retire and it’s hard at the minute to see them picking up many seats, if any at all. Yet they give an appearance of being delighted with themselves. I thought it was interesting that they abstained on the FFA bill , yes it’s a Labour AG but I get the feeling that if there is any movement on Repealing the 8th they want to be the ones to claim the credit. The sooner an election is, the fresher their time in government is too.
Sinn Fein going up a few percent and the next tranche of targets come into play. Donegal, Dublin West , Mayo and so on. I still wonder where there ceiling is… is it 20%?
As for Ross and the gang , game over for a good few of them. Zappone looks a goner, Dr Harty in Clare, boxer Moran, Finian McGrath and even Lord Ross himself could be in trouble. One Healy Rae will surely lose and Michael Fitzmaurice, Mattie McGrath and Michael Collins are far from safe.
For AAAPBP looking at Kavanaghs analysis (which is sometimes way off the mark) Mick Barry, Paul Murphy and Richard Boyd-Barrett would be safe.
However Brid Smith, Ruth Coppinger and Gino Kenny would be in danger. I reckon Kenny should be safe enough unless theres a continued surge in SF support. Brid Smith just beat Catherine Ardagh in the election however theres no reason that Ardaghs vote will rise and Catherine Byrne could lose out rather than Smith (although it could be Joan Collins). Ruth Coppinger will have another fight on her hands to stave off SF in Dublin West… however if Joan Burton retires she should be OK.
On the wider leftish TDs Catherine Connolly, Tommy Broughan would appear safe whilst
Thomas Pringle and Mick Wallace (Yes I know!!)
Whats more interesting is that target AAAPBP seats such as Limerick City, Dublin North Central and Louth may not come into play. We’ll see by the end of the year I suspect!