for lefties too stubborn to quit
Been watching television for a couple of hours, so when I saw something had happened in Turkey my first assumption was terrorism. But no, the Armed forces, or so it seems, have instituted a coup. Not very entirely effectively so far.
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The Cedar Lounge Revolution
Kemalist coup – Free Officer style? Leftist Peru type – Deep State ? We’ll see .Erdogan’s summer holidays are over that’s for sure.
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Yeah, it’s impossible to tell is it deep state or is it a genuine uprising against Erdogan (which even if it was would be pretty dodge) or something else again. The footage of air force jets over the city is something else.
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“Not just a few colonels ” says senior EU source according to RTE. Whatever its political hue this looks like a real deal coup attempt
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And it’s turned into a shooting war too.
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Doesn’t look like there is coherence amongst the military though, depending on how split they are this could get very ugly. We’re having a fascinating summer…
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+1 re army.
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,Yep ,,and if the coup succeeds it will make the EU refugee deal look even dodgier
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Erdogan back in town which cant be good for putschists – Al Jazeeera seem to be calling the coup as beaten but not seeing this elsewhere yet
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in these situations perception can be crucial in determining the ultimate outcome. Erdogan getting back on the telly in conventional press conference format at Istanbul, after his earlier out of town FaceTime interview, and declaring the coup defeated will, I would hazard, go a long way to achieving that defeat
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I’m sure Boris will something useful to say.
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Boris will bang a few heads together.
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Show Johnny Turk what’s for eh?
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And Charlie Flanagan will add his bit. He could tell Erdogan about vote management techniques in Laois-Offaly and contribute to the consolidation of Turkish democracy.
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Boris is 1/8 Turkish, as unlikely as that sounds.
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That’s right, I’d forgotten. He’s an odd fish, which isn’t always a good thing
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Looks like its been defeated. Victory for democracy.
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yeah, just emailing another friend and we were saying that Erdogan bad and all as he and his govt is is still an improvement on a military regime.
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A victory for the constitution, at least, but how much more paranoid and authoritarian will Erdogan become now?
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Very. It’s really a case of two bad outcomes.
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isnt there some clause in the Turkish constitution about the army being the guardians of secularism? I’m not at all defending them – or Erdogon – but it could be that they have a constitutional defence.
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The government claimed the coup was by supporters of Fethullah Gülen, who are quite different from Kemalists. Of course we still have to see whether that might have been misinformation. If those captured are allowed to speak.
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Caveat emptor. I don’t know how reliable this is. https://www.opendemocracy.net/osman-softic/what-is-fethullah-g%C3%BClen%E2%80%99s-real-mission
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Apparently Erdogan has been purging Gülen supporters the past two years and was about to announce the purge of the remaining members within the week.
Which apparently prompted them to last night’s fit of desperation. So instead of being fired they can be hung and/or imprisoned. Well played!
BTW the US refuses to extradite Gülen to Turkey to face terrorism charges. Which is perhaps the right thing to do but it’s still a handy little tidbit when trapped in debates with a certain American demographic.
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No American planes waiting on the tarmac at a Turkish airbase to spirit Erdogan away? (the US-backed attempted coup against Chavez, all those years ago)
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The Republicans in the NED could not contain their glee at the Chavez coup. They thought it was a done deal and he was out, they tipped their hands claiming responsibility and then all of a sudden Chavez’s army stormed out of the presidential basement, reversed the coup.
US was pretty embarrassed. But it’s been successfully swept down the memory hole and now it’s “Conspiracy Theory”.
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Seems to me the name of the game is Split Syria and who gets what.
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Maybe some background here https://www.opendemocracy.net/osman-softic/what-is-fethullah-g%C3%BClen%E2%80%99s-real-mission and here https://louisproyect.org/2013/12/28/ahmet-tonak-on-the-akp-gulenist-confrontation/
Turkey has many minorities besides the Kurds, The Alevis, various Christian groups (quite small)
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Apparently some of the coup plotters are seeking asylum in Greece .i trust the EU deal doesn’t mean they’ll be sent back to Turkey for their protection needs to be assessed – but these days of gymnastic flexibility on the rule of law you just never know .
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There’s something fishy about all this. The coup was spectacularly inept. I wouldn’t put it past Erdogan to have orchestrated the whole thing as a way of flushing out his opponents within the army and the “deep state”, thereby further tightening his grip on power. He purged over 2500 judges this morning. Even Stalin wasn’t that quick.
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That thought struck me too. From start to finish it was freaking infantile the approach taken, tactically and strategically rubbish. I think there’s something in what you say. Though I suppose the army could simply be rubbish as well.
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The post-coup clampdown is looking itself like a coup – shades of Iran 1953 and Indonesia 1965
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+1
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I doubt it. Coups are all about about perception – with most people sitting on the fence until they see where the momentum is. An induced small coup could turn into a real, larger one very quickly, I think.
Which is not to say that an elected politician, in a country which has seen coups before, wouldn’t have plans in place to deal with one.
(Which reminds me, I seem to recall British military ‘sources’ mouthing off about Corbyn in the recent past.)
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Hypothetically, were there a very British coup against an elected left-wing Labour government, would the same tactics be effective? If Corbyn or McDonnell were to call on the Labour movement to flood the streets and stop the tanks, would people respond? And would the Army back down if faced with tens of thousands of protesters? Just an idle thought.
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So basically we’re 24 hours on and it’s already a CIA false flag operation?
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If the US didn’t have a corrosive history in foreign affairs that wouldn’t come to people’s minds. That’s not to say it’s true, just that negative actions colour future interpretations.
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Yes and Obama, is the new Ike. I just can’t wait for the campaign buttons that say, “All the way with LBJ” to make a comeback.
Because everyone knows that Turks have no agency, it has to be the Americans.
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Actually I don’t think it is US inspired, I would think if it was a set up – still a big if, it was Erdogans own doing in order to flush out opponents and / or consolidate his own rule.
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Broken trust on foreign affairs issues isn’t something fixed overnight, like it or not, especially not when the US still has a bloated military and intelligence apparatus. Of course since in this case the paranoia is all yours that slips into irrelevance.
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YC you’re the first to mention CIA -. I said “shades of” 53 and 65 – not “same as” or even “like” . I was alluding to the way the failed coup is being very quickly exploited. I dont think Erdogan;s post coup ruthlessness can help us reach conclusions about who was behind the coup attempt and I havent seen anything to suggest US involvement – just a bit of dithering by Kerry – but there is reasonable basis for speculation about the possibitly of it being an auto-coup.
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Yeah, I interpreted your comment as such, that it was like an auto-coup or a faux coup. Balance of probability is if it were one of those most likely Erdogan’s. But it’s an open question. If the Gulen thing has any truth then it’s possible that explains the bad organisation. But it was really badly organised.
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They didnt even seem to know where Erdogan was – in hindsight it seems the game was up once he managed to get on TV and call out the protesters
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http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article38510 a satement from teh Turkish Left. I think this is a huge chance for the government to get rid of all the opposition. I remember Indonesia, where one alleged failed coup was the opportunity for another one. “Turkey: Opposition Forces Launch Campaign Against Erdogan ’Dictatorship’
The Peoples’ Democratic Congress (HDK) and Democratic Society Congress (DTK) together with the HDP and other parties and NGOs, launched the ’No to Dictatorship – No to Coup’ Campaign in Ankara on 5 May 2016. Launched to counter the lifting of parliamentary immunity, which the HDP has called ’a coup against parliament’ that foresees HDP deputies tried on terrorism charges, and President Erdogan’s tightening grip on power, the campaign aims to form a general bloc across Turkey.
Speaking at the campaign launch HDP Co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş announced that they have launched a “No” campaign against the coup led by the AKP / Erdogan and said, “This will not be limited to parliament and will be beneficial for the future of Turkey.” Demirtaş also called for the forming of a strong bloc.” from v
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from http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article38510
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Thanks Jim. Great reading for background at this time.
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Was talking to some family members living in Turkey today – they said there is a growing view that the coup was orchestrated by Erdogan in order to use it as a pretext to eliminate the opposition.
Don’t know how prevalent this is – but clearly some people do hold this view.
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Cory Doctorow I think was on the ball on this. He notes that just because Sultan Erdogan had a plan to eliminate more potential opposition after such an event and is implementing it with gusto, doesn’t mean that he staged the coup.
Doctorow makes the parallel with US Patriot Act that was clearly lying in wait in the neo-con files waiting for an event like 9/11. This doesn’t mean that was an inside job – just that bastards never waste a crisis. (Unlike “the Left”).
It seems that at least some of the soldiers in Turkey were told that they were on a training exercise. And they didn’t go for non-state media. A not very clever coup at all.
Things are noticeably tense here in Kreuzberg, Berlin.
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Article by Robert Fisk
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/07/15/erdogan-had-it-coming-the-turkish-coup-failed-but-another-will-succeed/
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Good piece by Fisk, thanks for the link JRG
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Detailed and IMO believable analysis of the failed coup and counter-coup here in Jacobin Mag.
It highlights the various ruling elites who are at play at the cost of Kurdish and Turkish people’s lives.
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