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A crowbar and yet another plea for a ‘new’ centre/centre right party July 19, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Michael McDowell makes one excellent point about Enda Kenny in the SBP this weekend. He writes that it would ‘take a crow bard to get [him] out of office’. And why should it be different. From Kenny’s perspective he has managed to return FG to its first consecutive term in government. He has assembled a government of many talents. He has kept FF away from the prize of government. Where now M. Martin’s pretensions of being Taoiseach after the most recent election.

Of course the problem is that his administration is dependent upon Martin and FF’s good will, is remarkably contingent and lacks any direction let alone vision, other than sustaining itself in power. As noted elsewhere this week, that may not be that unusual but it’s certainly odd to see it so evident.

And McDowell further notes that ‘as long as FF and FG both receive support in the range of 25-30% neither can govern without the support of the other unless they make a coalition with parties of the hard left’. He, naturally, includes SF in that latter category, but the point remains. Unless one or other of the larger parties breaks through that 30% level on a consistent basis then we are in for same old same old for quite some time to come. And that will, I suspect, soften the enthusiasm for an election.

McDowell being McDowell reads into all this not a push back to FF or FG, but a disenchantment with minority government on the part of the electorate. So, said electorate he believes is looking ‘elsewhere’. Where would that be Senator?

…the gap opens up for a new centre/centre right party to offer the people the prospect of a majority coalition which is not handcuffed to the parties of the hard-left. This is especially so if FF persists in the left-seeking strategy currently being pursued by M. Martin.

Hmmmm… interesting, if predictable. But then how does he account for FF’s poll ratings going up? The point would seem to remain that Martin’s strategy has the virtue of being correct. And if FF does breach the 30% barrier multiple times then what need is there for this centre/centre right party? A status quo ante will have been partly regained.

Perhaps that ‘new’ party should enter the field smartish. Though the fact it hasn’t would suggest that it can’t or that there’s no great enthusiasm or energy to sustain it.

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