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RedC/Paddy Power poll from last weekend… August 2, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Well now, that was interesting – and I was away at the time so didn’t get to it then, that latest poll from RedC/Paddy Power. Not so much because anything has changed but because frankly nothing, or little or nothing, has changed. 

Fianna Fáil is on 28%, down one percentage point while Fine Gael has a corresponding increase to 27%.

Sinn Féin is up two points to 15%; the Independent Alliance is unchanged at 5%; Labour is down two to 4% while Independents are up three to 10%.

A one point drop for the AAA-PPP puts the group at 4%. The Social Democrats and the Greens are both down one point to 3% each.

Those movements are more or less within the margin of error, and so perhaps we can say that opinion seems to be bedding down.

Now, there’s often heated discussion as to the importance, or significance, of polls. And yes, polls are often, perhaps nearly always, reified to an absurd degree. But in the current context of an FF that has a more than usual interest in these matters – and a particular ability to trigger, or not, an election due to its relationship with the government, one can put good money on them have a specific weight.

Not that FF can do anything it wants. It has to be careful not to be seen to pull down the house of cards.

Interestingly the Phoenix touches on these issues in the current edition, not least when it notes that as matters currently stand FF while gaining seats at any election held in the immediate future would merely find itself in much the same position as Fine Gael, or as the Phoenix puts it, ‘there is little point in FF swapping places with FG from the limbo where it currently lies,f or the purgatory of where FG is at the moment’ for ‘FG would then exert the same stranglehold over a minority, FF-led coalition, with a most uncertain future ahead’. The Phoenix argues, not incorrectly to my mind, that FF is therefore holding out for polls that see it in with 60 seats or more (currently it would be on 50 or so at these poll ratings).

In that context it would be able to pull together a government from various parts and elements and one that would have an overall majority (the Phoenix notes that that might even include the ‘currently unspeakable possibility’ of one including SF).

But all that is predicated on it actually getting those higher figures and the government collapsing, or being collapsed, in such a way as to not reflect back on FF.

As matters stand, if the polls are reasonably correct, and there’s little reason to believe otherwise, well, we’re some way out from an election. Quite some way. And perhaps that too is reflected in one poll finding that the electorate expects the government to last longer than a year. Hardly a rousing endorsement, sure. But better than the current administration might expect. Or deserves, some would say.

 

 

 

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1. Why Fianna Fáil aren’t just waiting for their poll numbers to improve.. | The Slugger Awards - August 2, 2016

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