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What’s this about Dublin Central? August 3, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Reading Miriam Lord at the weekend I was most struck in her list of  ‘end-of-term awards’, a practice by the way that I’m not sure I like much, for a variety of reasons – most obviously that it seems to reduce political conflict to ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in a way that doesn’t seem to me appropriate given the nature of political and ideological conflict, by the following:

The Social Democrats. The new party began the year with three TDs – all solid Dáil performers – and big ambitions, but failed to return any new members to the Dáil. Gary Gannon came closest in Dublin Central, which may gain a seat when the constituencies are redrawn. Róisín Shortall, Catherine Murphy and Stephen Donnelly promised much, but the party seems lost among the mixed bag of Independent groupings fighting for space in a crowded market.

There’s definitely something in there in regard to the SDs finding it difficult, or perhaps more accurately as difficult as others, to articulate their approach clearly, given the turbulent mix of parties, independents and formations in the current Dáil. Discussing this recently the point was made that if they’d been formed somewhat earlier they might have been in a better position. On the other hand… it may well be that if they can retain cohesiveness across the next couple of years to the end of this Dáil they will provide a very attractive home for those disenchanted by the LP, unswayed by FF and unsure about ports Independent or further left.

But, that point about Dublin Central? A fourth seat again? How likely is that, does anyone know? And any predictions based on a four seater DC as against the current situation?

 

Comments»

1. sonofstan - August 3, 2016

I’d imagine the population has increased, but not necessarily the number of eligible voters?

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2. Jonah - August 3, 2016

The CSO results have it second in terms of size of population per TD. In theory, you could see them increasing that and bumping it up to a four-seater.

The most logical way to do that would be to move the bit of Drumcondra that used to be in Dublin Central, but moved to DNW after 2011, back into Dublin Central.

Trouble is, that would make DNW, the first in terms of size of population per TD, a bit of a mess with knock-on implications for DBN.

Or they could look at the bit of Central moved into DW.

Basically, I think it’s fair to say it’s possible it could get an extra seat with some new territory but as sonofstan observes, that doesn’t mean as big a rise in voters.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censusofpopulation2016-preliminaryresults/geochan/

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3. dublinstreams - August 3, 2016
4. Liberius - August 3, 2016

The population of Dublin Central is 96,048 whilst the population of Dublin North-West is 96,898 with the population of Dublin Bay North being 152,830 and Dublin Fingal is 151,758. DF will have to shrink a little, as will DBN, and with DNW already having the largest variance the easiest solution is to expand that to 4 seats. Either way the one that isn’t increased will likely have to be after 2021 given population growth trends in north Dublin.

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