But speaking of Brexit… August 10, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
…here is one prediction that has not yet come true: that a vote for Brexit would send shockwaves through the global economy.
So said the International Monetary Fund, so warned the Bank of England. Yet now it seems these observers fell into the trap of overestimating the UK’s role on the world stage. Global fallout from the vote has yet to transpire.
If accurate, if there has been an actual overestimation of the UK’s role on the world stage that would seem to – almost paradoxically – be as one with the, what seemed to some, massive over-exaggeration of the economic importance of the UK on the part of some Leave proponents.
Of course, this should come hedged in caveats. It’s early days yet. But then again, logic alone suggests that a smaller economic entity is going to find absorbing the impact of significant economic dislocation a greater challenge than larger economic entities. Nonetheless, apart from everything else, this is fascinating. And the piece in the Observer notes:
None of that is to say that a global economy that was febrile before the UK’s referendum is out of the woods. European banks, notably in Italy, still look vulnerable. China’s debt-fuelled economy continues its struggle to rebalance. The US faces its own uncertainties as the election nears.
Brexit contagion comes low down on this list of global risks. So far it seems the UK is taking the big hit. Britain voted to stand alone, and now it does.