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Post-Brexit blues getting bluer… August 10, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I like Larry Elliott in the Guardian quite a lot. His analyses are good and unsparing, the fact that that analysis is rooted in an essentially pro-Brexit position useful, however much I would disagree with that line.  But I was slightly amused by this latest missive of his which notes:

 

So much for the idea that the post-Brexit-vote hit to UK manufacturing was a kneejerk reaction to the referendum and that the mood would improve as time wore on.

The final figures for how industry fared in July are in and they were even worse than the flash estimate released 10 days ago. Some analysts had expressed guarded confidence that Theresa May’s arrival in Downing Street might have made companies less gloomy.

Amused because prior to the referendum result he himself on the Guardian podcast seemed to downplay the negative effect of a Leave vote. In fairness, he never suggested there would be no negative effects but that these would be fairly transitory. And he has been absolutely correct about the central role of government in the UK in ameliorating as best as is possible the overall negative effects. But given a Tory government any such amelioration would be hamstrung by their ideology.  So it’s notable just how pessimistic he now sounds:

This, though, is a second-order problem, put into the shade by the need to forestall job cuts and the scrapping of investment. The chances of an eyecatching package have improved.

And how much depends upon that Tory government. He may well be further disappointed.

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