Political upheaval August 26, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
An interesting point made in Mary Regan’s piece in the SBP this last weekend where she considers the political upheavals in this and other states across the last few years. She notes that despite the ‘civil-war parties’ losing 30% of their share of the vote since the 1980s, dipping from 80% to 50% (entertaining to see the LP excluded from that schema):
But their demise is not as strong or as sudden as the retreat of mainstream traditional parties in other European countries. And so far, there has been no dramatic rise of another party to replace it.
She, of course, is thinking of SYRIZA or Podemos. And that is intriguing. I was thinking something not dissimilar the other day. That while the political structures we have known for many decades have disintegrated they haven’t seen a process of reconsolidation in a new form. So, instead, we are left with many competing voices beyond the ‘civil-war’ parties, albeit perhaps a slim majority of those voice on the Independent side are left of centre while SF is the single largest formation, and by quite some distance, outside of the Independents.
Perhaps because here that process of deconsolidation predated the economic crisis of recent years, that slowly the ‘civil-war’ parties were losing ground and momentum and when that crisis broke it accentuated the process. But… that without a clear incontrovertible alternative that process has now halted and perhaps, perhaps even reversed a little.
And this is a problem because forming a coherent opposition is next to impossible. The SBP has a long piece by Michael Brennan on SF (of which more on one particular point soon) which notes that SF has shifted towards a belief that only in coalition with FF is it likely to gain power. I wonder if that underestimates the antipathy towards it from FF. We’ll see.
But still. Political upheaval hasn’t delivered to us the outcomes almost all of us on this site would hope would occur. Perhaps political upheaval isn’t enough, and hoping for same isn’t enough. But if that’s the case then how will those outcomes be achieved?