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Forget all the talk of elections… that supermajority isn’t going anywhere yet. September 1, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Rockroots had a great point in this comment under an earlier piece that reflected on possible problems, up to and including the end of same, for the government in the wake of the Apple tax verdict.

What opposition though? If Labour and (most likely) FF both support the corporations over the national exchequer then are they likely to bring down the government on this particular issue? Could those more conscientious independents simply be squeezed out of government and the remainder continue, ‘in the national interest’?

And he’s correct. As it stands the current government has a nominal composition of 59 TDs – that is 50 FG and 9 Independents. But in reality it has an effective supermajority. 59 plus 43, that latter number being FF (one could, I suppose add in the ceann comhairle’s vote too). In other words 102. Even were all the Independent TDs to flee the government – an unlikely proposition given they’re playing for time by calling for an early recall of the Dáil, can you see Naughten or Zappone doing that any day soon, it would still have 93 seats (and likely three or four more from Independent ranks).

As long as this situation pertains it is going nowhere in relation to an election. And all the talk of same is completely irrelevant. Indeed I think Rockroots point about a ‘national interest’ government could well occur, albeit without direct participation by FF. That’s a poisoned chalice they’ll try to avoid as best they can. But there’s others who might be enticed back in the fold. Looking at the LP they don’t seem to be enjoying their time in opposition very much. And that’s largely an old parliamentary party, and there’s seven of them, and most of the younger cohort – such as it is – is safely ensconced in the Seanad. It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility to see that seven join FG plus 2 or 3 Independents.

As interesting is who will stay outside all this.

I was saying to Rockroots after that in writing the OP I ignored that core reality of our politics. Which was short-sighted of me. Because everything, all the supposed twists and turns of the government are predicated on this reality of a de facto if not acknowledged supermajority. Everything has to be framed in the context of that.

Comments»

1. Gewerkschaftler - September 2, 2016

Sure – but the supermajority will be further delegitimated by a vote in favour of Apple and against Irish citizens.

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2. EWI - September 2, 2016

Cannot understand how Labour aren’t making hay with this. Or are ‘difficult’ measures and ‘pain’ only for the PAYE plebs?

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Gewerkschaftler - September 2, 2016

What’s not to understand? Typical Labour. They still imagine themselves surviving as junior coalition partners of FG of FF.

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3. dublinstreams - September 2, 2016

Harry McGee and Pat Leahy say reading up on a decision is a sign of weak, non-functioning government, I don’t think I read 2 more patethic columns ever, an indictment on expectations of cabinet government and politicial correspondents

broken links for this broken commenting system

irishtimes.com slash news/politics/independents-wavering-on-apple-ruling-underlines-coalition-s-weakness-1.2776334

irishtimes.com slash news/politics/split-over-apple-tax-ruling-sign-of-coalition-going-awry-1.2774812

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WorldbyStorm - September 2, 2016

100% agree ds.

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