Forget all the talk of elections… that supermajority isn’t going anywhere yet. September 1, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
What opposition though? If Labour and (most likely) FF both support the corporations over the national exchequer then are they likely to bring down the government on this particular issue? Could those more conscientious independents simply be squeezed out of government and the remainder continue, ‘in the national interest’?
And he’s correct. As it stands the current government has a nominal composition of 59 TDs – that is 50 FG and 9 Independents. But in reality it has an effective supermajority. 59 plus 43, that latter number being FF (one could, I suppose add in the ceann comhairle’s vote too). In other words 102. Even were all the Independent TDs to flee the government – an unlikely proposition given they’re playing for time by calling for an early recall of the Dáil, can you see Naughten or Zappone doing that any day soon, it would still have 93 seats (and likely three or four more from Independent ranks).
As long as this situation pertains it is going nowhere in relation to an election. And all the talk of same is completely irrelevant. Indeed I think Rockroots point about a ‘national interest’ government could well occur, albeit without direct participation by FF. That’s a poisoned chalice they’ll try to avoid as best they can. But there’s others who might be enticed back in the fold. Looking at the LP they don’t seem to be enjoying their time in opposition very much. And that’s largely an old parliamentary party, and there’s seven of them, and most of the younger cohort – such as it is – is safely ensconced in the Seanad. It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility to see that seven join FG plus 2 or 3 Independents.
As interesting is who will stay outside all this.
I was saying to Rockroots after that in writing the OP I ignored that core reality of our politics. Which was short-sighted of me. Because everything, all the supposed twists and turns of the government are predicated on this reality of a de facto if not acknowledged supermajority. Everything has to be framed in the context of that.