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An Election Footing ……. September 16, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.

One thought struck me about Fianna Fails U Turn on Water Charges . Was it as a result of some post election research done by the Party? A report on how they did in the election and what could be done to improve their standing.
Fine Gael have their get together with all sorts of feed back around the campaign. Whats interesting too that it seems Fine Gael are partly focusing on personality (by that Enda Kennys leadership) whilst Fianna Fail seem to be focusing on policy. It’s often the other way around.
Fianna Fail will hope this move will get them seats in Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Central, Dublin North West, Dublin South Central and possibly a second one in Dublin Fingal. Countrywide they will be targeting Independents and some other seats too. Carlow Kilkenny ,Clare, Cork East, Cork NC, Cork SW, Galway East, Galway West, Laois, Limerick City, Limerick County, Longford Westmeath, Offaly, Tipperary and even Wexford. So a further jump in the polls and they will be a lot bigger than Fine Gael.
There’s supposedly caution within FF about an election as for the next six months at least they don’t want to be seen as the ones bringing the current government down, the ones to blame for an unnecessary election. That said it appears John Halligan and maybe some other Independents could do FFs job for them and leave FF blameless. There’s also the tricky stuff with NAMA. Naturally FF want any inquiry to deal with just Project Eagle, if it’s on a wider scale ,the buying as well as the selling of assets, then they may be in trouble from it. They have their “Think In” next week, the mood coming from that will be interesting.
Despite Enda getting his mojo back…. Fine Gael have lost any lustre they had. They need a new leader and one soon. Michael Noonan is no longer the authoritative figure he was, he performed poorly in the election campaign and hasn’t been great since, plus there’s NAMA. The Government is ploughing on but without any great confidence. There’s a budget to pass too, one which may upset some of their Independent allies. I’d imagine FF will make a big noise around something or another, forcing a ‘bad thing’ to be taken out and  a ‘good thing’ to be put in. Expect the pension to rise with FF taking the credit!
Labour are struggling in opposition where they are just one of many voices and a voice with a particularly bad record in government hanging around it. An election very soon and they could struggle to get five seats.
Sinn Fein well they should win a seat or two more but have a number of battles on their hands to hold certain seats. I wonder was yesterdays admission by Adams that he won’t be leader forever a sign that they are thinking about an imminent  election? I wonder too would it make sense for Adams, Dessie Ellis and Martin Ferris to retire at the next election and leave a future SF Parliamentary Party , for want of a better expression, clean of the troubles.
The Left are in good shape although as ever a number of seats will be tough to hold on to.
Independent support seems down, however the distrust of the Political class hasn’t lessened one bit since the election.
The Social Democrats really need a Local Elections to boost them and The Green are the Greens!
I get the feeling that FF will be ‘forced’ to pull the plug by the years end….. and then what Government could we have? A post Adams SF and FF? FF/FG Coalition ? or a similar arrangement to the one we have now FF supported by FG?


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