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B&A Sunday Times poll September 17, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

From Newstalk:

Fianna Fail 28 (-2); Fine Gael 23 (-2); Sinn Fein 18 (+4); Independent 12 (+4); Labour 7 (+1); Ind Alliance 4 (nc); AAA/PBP 4 (-1); Greens 2 (nc); SocDems 1 (-1); Workers Party 1 (-2).

A lot of churn within the Margin of error, but that SF figure and the Independent one too. Interesting.

Hardly good enough for a run to the country by FF?

By the way, RTÉ doesn’t have all the figures on their report. None for the LP.


1. roddy - September 17, 2016

Is SF not on 18?


ejh - September 17, 2016

I was thinking +4 to +14 must have meant 10 previously, and that looked on the lowish side.


CMK - September 17, 2016

SF got 14% in the actual election and have done nothing controversial since then, rather they have earnestly sought to establish themselves as a ‘safe pair of hands’, so that 4% rise to 14% seems a bit strange.


WorldbyStorm - September 18, 2016

Yes, apologies, poxy news talk wrong.


2. makedoanmend - September 18, 2016

A polling pattern seems to be emerging over many years with regard to SF.

SF seems to be the weather vane of the momentarily disaffected. When the economic-social environment deteriorates for groups of people, the disaffected people polled seem to use SF as a threat to the other parties – sort of: “…if things don’t get better rather quickly we’ll threaten to vote for SF…” – but not really. It’s only a threat. On election day “saner” heads prevail.

I’ve come to assume the persistent polling that takes place in Ireland is a convenient tool for the embedded ruling establishment to manipulate policy (or at least the PR framing) during the meta (never-ending?) election cycle.


3. Paddy Healy - September 18, 2016

B&A Poll Sunday 18/09/2016
There is no statistically significant change since B&A July Poll
My adjustment simply eliminates undecided respondents. B&A makes other adjustments which are best arguable. As expected these other adjustments mainly benefit the Labour Party. When a core vote of 4 goes up to a final adjusted figure of 7, it has increased by 75%-almost as much as the core vote itself!
The breakdown of OTHERS is very unreliable. The numbers favouring them is actually the same or less than the margin of error of 3.3%

B&A %
Sept 14 July 12 Sept 14
Core Core Undecided Excluded
FG 19 20 24.7
FF 21 23 27.3
SF 15 13 19.5
Labour 4 3 5.2
Green 1 1 1.3
IND/Others 18 19 23.4
Undecided 23 21

General Election Results were FG 25.5 FF 24.3 SF 13.8
Lab 6.6 Other Independents 11.7 Independent Alliance 4.2 AAA/PBP 3.9 Soc Dem 3.0 Renua 2.2 Workers Party 0.2

If we compare the final outcome to-day with the general election outcome, the increase in Sinn Féin vote is significantly greater than the margin of error in the poll published to-day


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