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That Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll: A three party and many others system? October 7, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.



Well well well… this wasn’t in the script. Unpopular government – a cobbled together coalition of FG and various Independents – was meant to be… unpopular with Fianna Fáil increasing their support slowly but steadily from the point it was established. But… what is this we see?

When people were asked who they would vote for in a general election, party support – when undecideds were excluded – compared with the result of the last poll in July was: Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up two points); Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (down seven points); Labour, 5 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin, 19 per cent (up three) and Independents/ Others, 24 per cent (up two).

Worse again is Dublin.

A significant weakness for Fianna Fáil is that the party is still struggling to recover ground in Dublin where it remains well behind Fine Gael and a little behind Sinn Féin [according to Stephen Collins it is on 14% in Dublin – he suggests SF does worst in Dublin where it is on 17%. The LP is on 9% there. ]. Mr Martin’s satisfaction rating has fallen four points to 39 per cent but he is still well ahead of all other party leaders.

What of the smaller groups and parties?

Among Independents/Others, the Green Party, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit and Independent Alliance each attract 3 per cent support, with other parties or groupings achieving 2 per cent or less of the vote.

The figures for Dublin are:

… the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit and the Green Party, which are on 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

None too shabby. The SDs may be, by contrast, in a spot of trouble:

…are now on just 2 per cent nationally, do marginally better in Dublin but the party faces a battle to carve out an identity for itself. The Greens do a little better at 3 per cent, but at 5 per cent in Dublin are probably better positioned to make gains in future elections.

And what of this?

Asked if they believed the “new politics”, which involved the participation of Independents in a Fine Gael-led government, was good for the country, 44 per cent said yes, 36 per cent said no and 20 per cent had no opinion.

A majority of Independent voters said yes, as did a smaller majority of Fianna Fáil, Labour and Sinn Féin supporters, but a majority of Fine Gael voters said it was bad for the country.

Our cynical hearts will, no doubt, be melted by such enthusiasm.

An election, one asks? No time soon. Perhaps we’re beginning to see some sort of ceiling on the FF vote. We know it can go higher – it was in the early 30s in the last IT/Ipsos MRBI poll. But it can go lower. Not a good sign. Not a good sign at all for them.


1. irishelectionliterature - October 7, 2016

Interesting to see if this “Supply and Demand” deal FF have with FG is starting to bite them. They are delighted with themselves making demands for the budget but being ‘responsible’ in promising not to bring the government down. I think it could backfire in that they will be associated with the budget and if they start getting involved too much will find it very hard to communicate the things that they did negotiate.


Dermot O Connor - October 7, 2016

AK’s usual


Fianna Fail 48
Fine Gael 48
Sinn Fein 31
Green Party 3
Labour Party 2
Social Democrats 2
Independents 22

It would be too delicious were FG/FF to win exactly the same number of seats. Let them wriggle out of that one.

Liked by 2 people

WorldbyStorm - October 8, 2016

Please let it happen. Please let it happen!


2. Mick 2 - October 7, 2016

I thump my own head repeatedly every time I hear the words “the new politics”. Not sure the Irish Times appreciates that no one except TDs and Senators and the Stephen Collinses of the world knows or cares to know what it means. Come to think of it, I don’t know what it’s supposed to mean either…

Liked by 1 person

gendjinn - October 7, 2016

Have navel, will gaze.


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