That Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll: A three party and many others system?

 

 

Well well well… this wasn’t in the script. Unpopular government – a cobbled together coalition of FG and various Independents – was meant to be… unpopular with Fianna Fáil increasing their support slowly but steadily from the point it was established. But… what is this we see?

When people were asked who they would vote for in a general election, party support – when undecideds were excluded – compared with the result of the last poll in July was: Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up two points); Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (down seven points); Labour, 5 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin, 19 per cent (up three) and Independents/ Others, 24 per cent (up two).

Worse again is Dublin.

A significant weakness for Fianna Fáil is that the party is still struggling to recover ground in Dublin where it remains well behind Fine Gael and a little behind Sinn Féin [according to Stephen Collins it is on 14% in Dublin – he suggests SF does worst in Dublin where it is on 17%. The LP is on 9% there. ]. Mr Martin’s satisfaction rating has fallen four points to 39 per cent but he is still well ahead of all other party leaders.

What of the smaller groups and parties?

Among Independents/Others, the Green Party, Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit and Independent Alliance each attract 3 per cent support, with other parties or groupings achieving 2 per cent or less of the vote.

The figures for Dublin are:

… the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit and the Green Party, which are on 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

None too shabby. The SDs may be, by contrast, in a spot of trouble:

…are now on just 2 per cent nationally, do marginally better in Dublin but the party faces a battle to carve out an identity for itself. The Greens do a little better at 3 per cent, but at 5 per cent in Dublin are probably better positioned to make gains in future elections.

And what of this?

Asked if they believed the “new politics”, which involved the participation of Independents in a Fine Gael-led government, was good for the country, 44 per cent said yes, 36 per cent said no and 20 per cent had no opinion.

A majority of Independent voters said yes, as did a smaller majority of Fianna Fáil, Labour and Sinn Féin supporters, but a majority of Fine Gael voters said it was bad for the country.

Our cynical hearts will, no doubt, be melted by such enthusiasm.

An election, one asks? No time soon. Perhaps we’re beginning to see some sort of ceiling on the FF vote. We know it can go higher – it was in the early 30s in the last IT/Ipsos MRBI poll. But it can go lower. Not a good sign. Not a good sign at all for them.