The politics of repeal October 10, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
18% against repeal, 55% for limited abortion provision, 19% pro-choice and 8% don’t know.
As the editorial notes, a referendum is surely on its way. But what happens next? If the broad ‘centre-ground’ sentiment is in favour of limited provision – in the case of rape and fatal foetal abnormality, what happens in relation to the pro-choice cause? Does it support a referendum that shifts the position forward but only to a limited extent or does it oppose that referendum.
Support for repeal of the amendment is strongest in Dublin, with 57 per cent in favour of limited access to abortion, 23 per cent in favour of a liberal abortion regime and 13 per cent in favour of retaining the current prohibition.
But it’s not a huge difference between that and the most resistant to change:
The strongest support for retention of the amendment is in Connacht-Ulster where 23 per cent would like to see it remain in the Constitution, 54 per cent favour repeal to cater for limited abortion and 15 per cent opted for wide access to abortion.
Class aspects? Perhaps, perhaps not (keeping in mind the massive problems with ABCDE categorisation):
In class terms, the poorest DE voters and farmers are the most strongly in favour of retaining the amendment while the best-off AB voters are most in favour of repealing it to allow wide access.
And that piece in the IT suggests that:
The message from the poll is that a proposal to repeal the amendment has a good chance of succeeding if the conditions in which abortion is allowed are limited to specific circumstances. However, if the introduction of a strictly limited regime is opposed by those who support the current prohibition and those who favour a liberal abortion regime band together a referendum could be a close-run thing.
So, any thoughts on how this plays out from here?