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Polling in the US election and other matters… October 19, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Real Clear Politics isn’t bad for keeping a sense of the polling data in the US Presidential election. Most usefully it has projections of the Electoral College rather than national polls. But wow, some of the links – now there’s a mixed bag. RCP leans somewhat right, I think it’s fair to say, so while there’s a mix, you’ll find right wing blogs and ‘news’ outlets. Typical of that was a piece on the Federalist which managed to completely misinterpret the problem with the Trump ‘locker room’ tape – avoiding engaging with the actuality of it – his seeming comfort with grabbing a woman sexually in order to complain about identity politics and hypocritical ‘moral outrage’. Reading it I had to wonder did the writer think that people are quite so credulous as not to see the rhetorical sleight of hand. But perhaps they are.

But you think it was just the Federalist etc like that? What about RCP itself? Try this for size.

It took comments for people to note that the author was incorrect, that it wasn’t what he was saying but what he was saying he actually did. Disconnect.


1. CL - October 19, 2016

Paddy Power has begun paying out on bets on Hillary Clinton.


CL - October 19, 2016

But,-“William Hill slashes odds on Trump victory amid betting patterns eerily reminiscent of those seen in the lead up to the EU referendum”


Joe - October 19, 2016

It’s business innit? The bookies want to get stories into the press and get us commenting on them – and get us into the bookies to give them more of our money.

Anyway, whoever wins this, the press will have their story that ‘the bookies’ called it weeks before the event.


WorldbyStorm - October 19, 2016

+1 Joe


Dermot O Connor - October 19, 2016

The spread on the different polling companies is insane. One gives HRC a +9 lead, the next gives T a +1 or a tie. Don’t know what to make of them. Methodology varies so widely, they may be close to useless.

This is the best page to track, as it breaks down support over all 4 candidates (in which HRC tends to lose a couple of % over the binary choice models):


I suspect that T has a good chance of eating a chunk of Gary Johnson’s male Libertarian support on the day. Mister “what is aleppo” would be very lucky to hit 5%. Hard to see his support drifting to HRC.

Still think the Klin-ton Dragon will win, but that’s going to depend on no nasty surprises between now and polling day.


WorldbyStorm - October 19, 2016

Yes, it does depend on no further October surprises. Mind you, how many can there be in one campaign cycle?


Dermot O Connor - October 19, 2016

I think that any Clinton lead in the 2 to 4% range will be precious come the day. Dudes want to have sex with their GFs and Wives (may they never meet). This doesn’t happen when you admit to voting for Trump. Very shy, those boys.


Dermot O Connor - October 19, 2016

precious = precarious


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