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US Elections: Politico podcast October 25, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I’ve come to this late, but got to say I’m impressed by its granular analysis. I’m also listening to the Ken Rudin political podcast, Slate’s Trumpcasts, and a range of others intermittently.

One great point made on the Politico podcast was the sense that all the wikileaks stuff on Clinton isn’t merely not making a splash due to the car crash that is Trump, but that it came at the wrong time. Had it dropped months ago it would have been a gift to Sanders. And yet drop it didn’t.

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1. Dr. X - October 25, 2016

Is there a link missing there?

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WorldbyStorm - October 25, 2016

Apologies Dr. X. Here is the link(s).

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2. gendjinn - October 25, 2016

It’s not making a bit of difference to the Dems. But it is hardening the anger in the Sanders groups and depressing them holding their noses. for HRC (Her Heinous is emerging as the most common sobriquet amongst them).

Should she win it will haunt her for the next four years and burn her in the next primary.

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Joe - October 25, 2016

If enough of the Sanders supporters can’t bring themselves to vote for HRC, could Trump win?
Gendjinn, you’re over there I think. How big is the potential no-show by Sanders supporters? Is HRC’s lead so big that a Sanders no-show won’t matter?

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gendjinn - October 25, 2016

TL;DR – No, but watch Podesta emails from Wikileaks. If Clinton loses demonising Sanders/Stein supporters will be the order of the day. Just as they did with Nader (82 and still fighting!)

Before the Billy Bush tape came out I was concerned that it was close enough in the battleground states of IN,IA,MI,NC,OH,PA that a shy Trump vote of 2% to 4% could swing enough of those states to throw the Electoral College to Trump (or even a tie to the House).

That tape, the women coming forward, Trump’s management and subsequent debate performances would appear to have put that concern to rest. I suspect shy Trumpers will now more likely stay home than turn out. The polls since have shown an increasing lead for HRC. Trump has done what Clinton couldn’t, motivate women for Hillary.

BUT I am seeing zero enthusiasm (in California). No yard sings, no posters, no bumper stickers compared to 2012/2008. In Berkeley last week I saw one single Clinton yard sign. Again a big difference from ’08 & ’12. Anecdotal reporting around the country indicate Clinton campaign signage is languishing in regional offices.

The Clinton campaign has an almost Obama level ground campaign infrastructure in place, dwarfing the Trump campaign. The GOP is running from Trump.

The election has always been the Democrats to lose, they still could but I’d say the Nate Silver model is good enough, and if he’s getting it right then it’s pretty bleedin’ obvious. Still a 15% to 20% chance of Trump winning.

Wikileaks is the black swan here – the Podesta emails which are getting ignored are dynamite. Donna Brazille is busted for handing HRC a debate question before the debate. The ToddAndClare.com sting Podesta/Summers tried to run on Assange. And we are only halfway through the Podesta leaks. The sabre rattling with Russia to stop people talking about the contents of the emails would suggest they are concerned there is a bombshell coming.

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Joe - October 25, 2016

‘the Podesta emails which are getting ignored’. They sure are – I’m slightly interested in this election and I haven’t the slightest clue what the Podesta emails are!

It’s never over till it’s over and some bombshell or other could yet hit the HRC campaign.

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3. CL - October 26, 2016

“What we see in the Podesta emails is the grist of political life….
After seeing how the Clinton sausage got ground, perhaps the voting public will now be more likely to view the contents of stolen emails through the prism of political reality. Without a truly scandalous bombshell, each subsequent cyberattack on Clinton’s team, or that of another politician, may be greeted with bigger and bigger shrugs…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/24/why_the_wikileaks_attack_fizzled_132139.html

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