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One thought about UK polling November 2, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

UKPollingReport continues its excellent work in assessing polling in the UK. And two polls – pretty much identical, have emerged in the last few days. As UKPR notes:

The regular ICM poll for the Guardian has topline voting intentions of CON 43%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1), GRN 5%(-1).


BMG also released a new poll, though this is actually less recent than the ICM one (fieldwork was done between the 19th and 24th of October, so just over a week ago). Topline figures with changes from September are CON 42%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 4%(-1).

As UKPR also notes:

UKIP support is pretty steady in both – the drop in UKIP support that we saw in MORI’s poll does not appear to have been echoed in anyone else’s data.

That’s more than interesting. Put that together with the Tory vote and you see a good 54% on the right of centre. Consider that the UKIP vote is some way short of half of the Labour vote. That there is the mountain that Owen Jones and others are pointing to, a reactionary bloc that can command close to 3 in 5 voters with Labour pushed back to less than 1 in 3.

There’s no question that Brexit is inflicting stresses on the Tories, but they have a significant cushion in the shape of that support bloc – and given that they are (rhetorically at least) tilting more rather than less to the right they’ve the option of embracing that UKIP vote.

To many of us this cautionary advice, or is it a warning, here is near enough spot on.

A report from The UK in a Changing Europe, an independent group of academics led by Prof Anand Menon of King’s College London, warns that this will only be the start of the process of extricating Britain from the EU and establishing new relationships with other member

“Brexit has the potential to test the UK’s constitutional settlement, legal framework, political process and bureaucratic capacities to their limits – and possibly beyond,” Menon said.

And here’s another spanner in the works:

…they suggest the repatriation of decision-making in key policy areas including agriculture, the environment and higher education to Britain from Brussels could affect the balance of power between Westminster and the devolved parliaments – another major constitutional headache for politicians.

The implications for part of this island are self-evident.


1. An Cathaoirleach - November 4, 2016

I think you are being over-optimistic, one in four votes looks more reasonable. There is no coherent message, let alone theme or even policies coming from the BLP.

The Conservatives have also carved out a role for themselves as the real opposition in Scotland with the Scottish Greens acting as an opposition within nationalism, leaving the Lab party no where to go there.

The Northern Irelanders are busily scrambling around looking for someone else stupid enough to subsidise them, EU money is exiting and the new UK Govt. is not committed to keeping the money tap on for much longer. Tony Blair is just a distant memory.

The position of Wales looks little better. With all three devolved administrations dependent on the generosity of English taxpayers to remit the money to the top up local expenditure, an electoral campaign based on a greater level of reversing the flow back to English regions looks a winner.

Charging lower university fees is all very fine when you don’t have to raise the difference locally, but matching the spending choices brought by devolution with income raising measures will be unpopular in UKNI & Scotland, but surely very popular in England.

A large majority for the English centre right/right looks as if it is the only likely result, and as such a decent majority of the total UK vote. In 2015, the LP received 31.6% of English votes & 38.6% of seats. As they seem unlikely to reach that level in the future, the writing is on the wall.


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