One thought about UK polling November 2, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
The regular ICM poll for the Guardian has topline voting intentions of CON 43%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1), GRN 5%(-1).
BMG also released a new poll, though this is actually less recent than the ICM one (fieldwork was done between the 19th and 24th of October, so just over a week ago). Topline figures with changes from September are CON 42%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 4%(-1).
As UKPR also notes:
UKIP support is pretty steady in both – the drop in UKIP support that we saw in MORI’s poll does not appear to have been echoed in anyone else’s data.
That’s more than interesting. Put that together with the Tory vote and you see a good 54% on the right of centre. Consider that the UKIP vote is some way short of half of the Labour vote. That there is the mountain that Owen Jones and others are pointing to, a reactionary bloc that can command close to 3 in 5 voters with Labour pushed back to less than 1 in 3.
There’s no question that Brexit is inflicting stresses on the Tories, but they have a significant cushion in the shape of that support bloc – and given that they are (rhetorically at least) tilting more rather than less to the right they’ve the option of embracing that UKIP vote.
A report from The UK in a Changing Europe, an independent group of academics led by Prof Anand Menon of King’s College London, warns that this will only be the start of the process of extricating Britain from the EU and establishing new relationships with other member
“Brexit has the potential to test the UK’s constitutional settlement, legal framework, political process and bureaucratic capacities to their limits – and possibly beyond,” Menon said.
And here’s another spanner in the works:
…they suggest the repatriation of decision-making in key policy areas including agriculture, the environment and higher education to Britain from Brussels could affect the balance of power between Westminster and the devolved parliaments – another major constitutional headache for politicians.
The implications for part of this island are self-evident.