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What you want to say – 2nd November 2016 November 2, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.

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1. Phil F - November 2, 2016
2. Tomboktu - November 2, 2016

The Ba humbugi is endangered.

http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/195519/0

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3. CL - November 2, 2016

At Paddy Power Hillary Clinton is still odds on to win at 4/11, with Trump at 9/4.

‘Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot’
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

Clinton’s lead in the RCP average has dropped below 2 per cent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com

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Gewerkschaftler - November 2, 2016

In terms of the numbers it’s getting kind of interesting – in an ‘I can hardly bear to watch’ kind of way. I may even stay up for some of the count.

Did I see one poll with Trump +7?

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CL - November 2, 2016

That’s probably the L.A. Times tracking poll. But that’s an outlier, showing Trump ahead for some time
.What’s more scary is the RCP average, with Trump’s numbers increasing, as Clinton’s are falling.

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4. dublinstreams - November 2, 2016

anyone watch the Enda “documentary” it was the most superficial a to b to c documentary I’ve ever seen didn’t learn anything new, I really don’t know what the point of it was it was so banal.

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Joe - November 2, 2016

A documentary about Enda that was superficial and banal. No surprise there surely ds?

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5. dublinstreams - November 2, 2016

Identity Ireland has gotten its 300 signed up members etc in order to apply to be an official political party, notice of propsal to do so here http://www.irisoifigiuil.ie/currentissues/Ir281016.pdf

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6. oconnorlysaght - November 2, 2016

A few days ago, I gave my opinion that, if an enfranchised American citizen, I would vote Green. It is not just out of egoism, that I report here that I have discovered that an even less reported socialist candidate is in the Presidential race. I name as chosen one Jeff Mackler of Socialist Action.

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US Elections
US ELECTIONS
The Class Line in Elections Is the Principled Issue
In this series, Left Voice amplifies the voices of candidates who have undertaken the bold task of running as socialists. This time we interviewed presidential candidate for Socialist Action, Jeff Mackler.
Jeff Mackler
October 17, 2016
1

Photo: Socialist Action Website

This election season, the vast majority of voters see only two options—Clinton or Trump. The mainstream media continually bombards us with the latest news about these candidates, but rarely sheds light on alternatives to the Republican and Democratic Parties.

To most Americans, little is known about the individuals campaigning as socialists for the 2016 presidential elections. These candidates share a belief that socialism is the only viable alternative—the only solution to our social and economic problems. What they have in common is a repudiation of the political system run by and for the wealthy, of capitalism in general and ruling-class domination through the Republican and Democratic Parties.

We interviewed Jeff Mackler, National Secretary and presidential candidate for Socialist Action.

How did you become a part of the socialist movement?

As a participant in the early civil rights movement in the late fifties and early sixties, where I was arrested some nine times in various sit-ins and mass marches and as an opponent of the McCarthy era witchhunt, where I was arrested again in a protest inside a hearing of the House Committee on Un-American Activities, I came in contact with the Trotskyist Socialist Workers Party and its youth group, the Young Socialist Alliance. These groups introduced me to the fundamentals of working class politics and, in the process, convinced me that society’s social and political evils were inherent in the capitalist system. From there it was easy to conclude that the “system” had to be changed in all its manifestations and this required the organization of the vast majority to fight for socialism.

Why have you decided to run in the 2016 presidential election? What do you hope to accomplish through your campaign?

The worldwide economic crisis that began with the 2008 crash ushered in an era of concerted attacks on the broad working class and, indeed, on the oppressed and exploited everywhere on earth. Capitalism has proven to unprecedented millions that all its evils –racism, sexism, homophobia, union busting, destruction of social services, mass incarceration of Blacks, Latinos and Native Americans and global warming-environmental destruction that threaten life on earth itself – are inherent in the system itself. Thus, we are witness to fundamental changes in political consciousness and a massive new interest in socialist ideas. Every poll demonstrates that youth especially, as well as the broad population, are open to socialist ideas more than ever. In fact, the Bernie Sanders candidacy was qualitatively more a carefully-orchestrated sheepherding decision of the Democrats themselves than it was a decision of a life-long capitalist politician to challenge the Democratic Party.

Socialist Action decided to enter the electoral arena with our presidential campaign to win the hearts, minds and ranks of this new layer of radicalizing youth and, above all, to channel their energy into the emerging social and political mass movements whose collective power is the prerequisite to challenging the system itself. Indeed, we will win this election if we help build the power of mass movements organized independently of and against the parties of capital, and, in the process build our revolutionary party of the working class.

What would you say is the biggest political difference between your campaign and that of the two mainstream capitalist parties? How does your electoral program and campaign differ from Bernie Sanders who claims to be a socialist?

Our campaign seeks to promote the interests of and to assist in the organization of the working class for abolition of capitalism. The twin parties of capitalism, Democrats and Republicans alike, including Sanders, are the key institutions to defend and advance the interest of the tiny ruling class elite. Bernie Sanders is nothing more than a conscious advocate of ruling class politics, assigned to use the language of social change to strengthen the Democratic Party. He is yet another “lesser evil” advanced and promoted by a crisis-ridden capitalism to once again channel massive social discontent into what we have always called the graveyard of all social movements, the Democratic Party.

Why are independent candidates, including socialists, left out of the debates and the mainstream media?

Capitalist elections have always been in the exclusive purview of the billionaire, if not trillionaire elite, who, every four years, allow the electorate to choose between one party of the ruling class or the other. Elections are exclusively in their domain, from the selection of candidates, to the laws that essentially exclude socialists from the ballot, to the corporate media that exercises a near total monopoly on what ideas are covered, to the counting of ballots. The elections today are increasingly limited to a tiny section of the population, with some 50 percent of eligible voters choosing not to participate and another 50 percent of registered voters, not voting. Additionally, various racist and related anti-democratic laws consciously exclude those most likely to support anti-capitalist, labor and socialist candidates.

In 2006, when I challenged a California law that excluded me from listing my party’s name on the ballot, I was fined $243,000 by a corrupt court system operates to protect the interests of the ruling class parties.

How does your campaign relate to the working class, the labor movement and social movements? What existing social movements are especially important and of interest to you and your organization?

Our campaign is consciously designed to reach the broadest layers of working people and the oppressed as possible. My Vice Presidential running mate Karen Schraufnagel and I have spoken across the country at innumerable public forums, debates and rallies to advance our socialist ideas and to promote the critical social movements of today. We seek to build and re-build a fighting labor movement constructed on the foundations of a massively expanded, democratic and class struggle trade unions. We seek to advance the struggles of Blacks, Latinos and other oppressed nationalities. We are for the formation of a mass Labor Party based a democratic, massively expanded and fighting trade union movement to compliment labor’s struggles at the point of production. We are champions of and active participants and leaders of the climate crisis and antiwar movement and fighters for class struggle policies in the union in contrast to the largely class collaborationist policies of the present trade union mis-leaders. Our comrades across the country have always been active participants in all these struggles and all others where the oppressed and exploited move to organize independently of and against the policies and institutions of capitalism. Capitalist elections are merely a limited tactic to reach new layers of radicalizing workers and youth.

How would you build/encourage unity-in-action among socialist groups and working class organizations around common demands? What possibility do you see for common electoral activity on the left in the future?

Socialist Action’s middle name is the united front, where we can achieve unity in action, in independent mass actions, based on principled demands, including the defense of working people on the picket line, to mass antiwar and environmental mobilizations. We are active fighters in the struggles initiated by Black Lives Matter who demand an end to police murder, mass incarceration and the racist, slave labor prison-industrial system. In the electoral arena, on the other hand, we are harsh critics of all socialist organizations that support in any form the candidates and parties of capitalism. Tragically, today, we are witness to a broad capitulation of most all of the socialist left to capitalist lesser evil politics, ether in the form of support to Sanders or to “lesser evil” Hillary Clinton or to the middle class Green Party of Jill Stein that advocated that lifelong capitalist politician Sanders run as a Green Party candidate for president. For Socialist Action, the class line in elections is the principled issue in all our politics. We reject any form of unity in the electoral arena with any party on the other side of this class line. We reject any electoral support to capitalist or pro-capitalist parties, Greens included. Sadly, today’s efforts at seeking a “socialist convergence” are promoted by almost all of the “socialist” left that advocate support to Sanders, the Greens and/or the Democrats. This single and tragic fact makes any serious convergence in the electoral arena impossible.

There are a handful of socialists running independently from Republicans and Democrats. How would you convince the readers of Left Voice to vote for you?

To our knowledge virtually all other socialist groups have called for of a vote for either Sanders, the Greens or the Democratic Party. The Workers World and the Party for Socialism and Liberation called for a Sanders vote in the Democratic Party primaries. The International Socialist Organization regularly supports the pro-capitalist reformist Green Party, as does Solidarity. Socialist Alternative tragically abandoned its socialist perspectives when it spent the electoral cycle promoting Democrat Sanders, who, they incredibility posed as the candidate leading a “political revolution” inside the nation ‘s leading capitalist party. They initiated the “Movement 4 Bernie” campaign where they collected 120,000 signatures urging Sanders to run as Green while in the same petition urging those who were reluctant to do so, to vote for Sanders in “safe states” only, impliedly urging a vote for Democrat Clinton in all the others. The only exception worth noting today is the campaign of the Socialist Party, which has rejected support to capitalist candidates in all their variations. We urge a vote for the SP as well as for Socialist Action. Were it possible today to run a serious campaign with a number of socialist groups that would fundamentally pose the question of independent working class power, we would be the first to do so. Unfortunately, the state of the socialist left in the U.S. and more often than not worldwide, is at a low ebb and thus incapable of posing a fighting working class alternative in the electoral arena. There is a great gap or contradiction between the unprecedented anger and hatred of working people for the massive austerity measures imposed on them in the crystallization of this discontent in fighting formations in the broad political and electoral domain. This limits U.S. socialists to largely propaganda electoral political efforts coupled with steady work in all social movements. Preparing today for that moment, soon, we believe, when the present relative passivity turns to massive social struggles is our primary focus.

Can you share some comments on the history and origins of your organization?

Socialist Action is 33 years old. Our origins are in the Socialist Workers Party, founded by James P. Cannon when the Trotskyist-led Left Opposition was expelled from the Stalinized Communist Parties in the U.S. and worldwide in 1928. We consider ourselves to be continuity with the best traditions of the SWP before the tragic abandonment of its historic revolutionary socialist program and working class traditions.

Why is voting for independent socialist candidates important? Should socialists consider supporting the Green Party’s Jill Stein?

As I mentioned, we do not consider Jill Stein or her Green Party either independent, socialist or based on the perspective of organizing for working class for power. The Greens are a middle class reformist party that since its formation, and today, has practiced an “inside-outside” the Democratic Party policy. Stein urged a vote for Sanders in the California Democratic Party primaries and urged a spot for Sanders on her Green Party ticket as if Sanders’ lifelong record in ruling class politics and parties could be transformed by a ballot switch. A vote for Socialist Action is a vote for the independent organization of working class power, for a definitive break with the capitalist system, for the construction of powerful social movements that are aimed at challenging capitalism at its roots.

US imperialism continues to kill abroad, whether under a Democratic or Republican President. What are your proposals for US foreign policy – what does it mean to be anti-imperialist in the U.S.?

Socialist Action stands for the immediate and total withdrawal of all U.S. troops everywhere in the world. We oppose any and all U.S. wars. We are for the immediate abolition of the entire trillion dollar military budget, for the closing of all 1,100 foreign U.S. military base and the thousand bases inside this country. U.S. imperialism is nothing less that the international expression of the interests of the U.S. ruling class. We stand against all U.S. wars, whether they be wars of intervention and occupation, so-called humanitarian wars, drone wars, privatized death squad wars or sanction and embargo wars. We are unconditional supporters of the right of oppressed nations to self-determination, regardless of the leaderships of these nations – dictatorships, nationalist regimes, etc. This historic right to self-determination of poor nations means in essence that the responsibility of the masses of oppressed nations to decide their future rests only with the people themselves and never with the U.S. or any other imperialist would-be cops of the world. In all these poor and oppressed nations we are for the defeat of all U.S. and U.S- backed forces and for the immediate and total withdrawal of U.S. troops and an end to all forms of related U.S. intervention.

[Jeff Mackler is the Socialist Action candidate for the U.S. presidency. He will be speaking at “The Solution is Socialism” conference on Oct. 22 at Central Connecticut State University in New Britain, CT, 9am to 5 pm, sponsored by Youth for Socialist Action. See SocialistAction.org for details].

Interviewed by Moisés Delgado

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Alibaba - November 2, 2016

Thumbs up.

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CMK - November 2, 2016

Pretty silly digs at Socialist Alternative who, ya know, have actually made a real world off-campus electoral advance in the US. SA are actually building and consolidating a fighting electoral force, admittedly limited to Seattle for now. If Socialist Action had matched that I’d take this seriously but, no, they seem pretty detached from reality.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

I’m guessing this is about competing tiny Leninist parties.

Life’s too short.

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oconnorlysaght - November 3, 2016

Yes, this is about competing Leninist parties. At this point in time, the international currents to which they belong should be discussing their differences rather than grandstanding.
And, yes life is short, but unless that is done, and common action is agreed, life will be shorter still.

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oconnorlysaght - November 3, 2016

In the meantime, I would advise to anyone listening: vote socialist, preferably socialist action, but alternatively socialist alternative. It is necessary to keep the word alive, if nothing else.

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Joe - November 3, 2016

I’m confused now. There’s four choices am I right?
Socialist Action
Preferably Socialist Action
Socialist Alternative and
Alternatively Socialist Alternative.

Where’s the Irish Bolshevik Tendency when we need him to sort out this mess? 🙂

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

An honest answer to a slightly facetious question. Thank you.

Just for the record and to increase my score in Leftist Trivial Pursuits – which international currents are they?

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CMK - November 3, 2016

Socialist Alternative are CWI. Not sure about the others.

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Ed - November 4, 2016

Socialist Action is USFI, ISO used to be IST but they know have their own kind-of international tendency (the DEA in Greece are the most notable ones I guess).

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CL - November 4, 2016

Where do they stand on whether the Soviet Union was a deformed workers state or state capitalist?

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CMK - November 4, 2016

Ah, jaysis, CL, this was about to die a natural death…….

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Gewerkschaftler - November 4, 2016

A massive online inheritance diagram like the excellent one produced for the Irish left, except on a world-wide basis would be interesting.

I don’t know how you represent the international and national affiliation dimensions. I’m sure the CIA has such a thing, but I doubt that they’ll be sharing it.

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7. Michael Carley - November 2, 2016

One more for the file marked `Post-imperial delusion that the world does whatever we demand’:

Prime Minister Theresa May says Fifa’s apparent refusal to allow England and Scotland players to wear armbands featuring poppies is “outrageous”.

The two teams will meet at Wembley on 11 November, the day when the United Kingdom remembers its war dead.

World governing body Fifa reiterated its ban on political, religious or commercial messages on shirts.

“Before they start telling us what to do, they jolly well ought to sort their own house out,” said Mrs May.

“Our football players want to recognise and respect those who have given their lives for our safety and security – I think it is absolutely right they should be able to do so.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37848413

Presumably, she’ll defend the FAI’s right to have 1916 jerseys.

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sonofstan - November 2, 2016

Sort of connected, the Mail today: “as polish truck driver is jailed for killing child while driving using his mobile, the Mail sees 17 foreign truckers using their phones while driving” – and no british drivers? Seriously?

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WorldbyStorm - November 2, 2016

It’s overstating it to say it is like fascism. But you know, in a way it’s like fascism. Always the “other”. Never one’s “own” bar the enemies within.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

The very same Daily Mail who outed one of the High Court judges frustrating their long-term Brexit campaign as a “gay ex-Olympic fencer”.

A fencer, I tell you!

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sonofstan - November 7, 2016

Just spotted they also described one as being ‘fluent in several foreign languages’ – you know what that means….

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Liberius - November 4, 2016

…defend the FAI’s right to have 1916 jerseys.

And on that note, this;

FIFA has charged the Irish Football Association (FAI) over a shirt logo worn in March to commemorate the 100th anniversary of an uprising against British rule.

“We can confirm that disciplinary proceedings have been opened on this matter,” a spokeswoman for world soccer’s governing body, whose rules forbid players from wearing anything that can be perceived as a political statement, said on Friday.

“We cannot comment further at this stage nor speculate on any outcome.”

There was no immediate reaction from the FAI.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-ireland-fifa-idUKKBN12Z1LX

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8. roddy - November 2, 2016

BBC AND ITV force their employees to wear poppys up here and integrated schools sell them.

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WorldbyStorm - November 3, 2016

Yeah. Never approved of that.

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Joe - November 3, 2016

Is there a difference there though – between being forced to wear one and having the option of buying one?
BBC and ITV force their employees to wear them.
Integrated schools sell them – how does that work? Is it that parents or others calling to the school can buy poppies there if they want? Or are pupils sent out on the street to sell them? Integrated schools would have pupils from different backgrounds – some families might be poppy-wearers by tradition, others not. So if it’s a voluntary thing – buy a poppy, wear a poppy if you like, is that not sort of ok?

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WorldbyStorm - November 3, 2016

Didn’t we discuss this last year and unless I’m mistaken part of the problem is that the Easter Lily and other republican and nationalist symbols aren’t allowed to be worn in such establishments. So the voluntary aspect is undercut by the broader censoring of other symbols.

Identity and the north…

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Joe - November 3, 2016

Thanks WBS. A good debate was had. But the definition of my madness is to go over the old ground again and again and again…

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6to5against - November 7, 2016

we did discuss this last year WBS, and we’ll be discussing it next year too….

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9. CMK - November 3, 2016
sonofstan - November 3, 2016

Imagine the intimidation that MPs will experience in the lead up to such a vote.

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Michael Carley - November 3, 2016

Imagine how some people will respond when they discover they live in a monarchy and the people aren’t sovereign.

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CMK - November 3, 2016

I’m always amazed to hear the term ‘citizen’ used in British political discourse. I don’t think you can be a citizen of the UK only a subject of the crown? Anyway, there’s that point about the crown in parliament. Let’s see what happens.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

Full blown crisis of a pseudo-constitution then?

Excellent.

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WorldbyStorm - November 3, 2016

+1 excellent stuff, time to get the popcorn in. What is so telling is that it underscores how the Tories are winging this. Brexit will still take place but at least it is run past the Parliament and some sort of analysis and input beyond the Tories is possible. Mind you what a shambles this all is. Genuinely its not even a Tory B team but a C team or worse!

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

And now the devolved “Regions” are demanding a vote – at least Wales and Scotland.

It gets better.

This is going to drive English nationalists wild.

Anything from NI yet?

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WorldbyStorm - November 3, 2016

I’m in transit so haven’t seen anything yet

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

The judgement of the high court got to the core of the issue:

The high court’s key reasoning is that the government “cannot without the intervention of parliament confer rights on individuals or deprive individuals of rights”

And deprivation of rights what what it was about.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 3, 2016

This is classic from “Leave means leave”:

Our democracy is being damaged by an elite band of people in the legal system.

Who needs an independent judiciary?

It’s virtually a word-for-word translation from the nasty little man at the head of Poland’s PiSers. Which has destroyed the independence of the judiciary there.

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sonofstan - November 5, 2016

Awful,stuff, obviously, but the idea that the British judiciary are entirely above politics will ring false to those of us who remember Lord denning and his ‘appalling vista’

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10. Gewerkschaftler - November 4, 2016

Another grave step on the road to elective dictatorship in Turkey.

Erdogan’s thugs have arrested both of the HDP leaders and 9 other MPs

This is what can happen to ‘Enemies of the People’ – I’m channeling yesterdays Daily Nazi-Mail.

Large parts of the judiciary are in jail, and the main opposition newspaper has been closed down.

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Joe - November 4, 2016

Not good. Not good at all. Heading for dictatorship alright.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 6, 2016

There was a lively demo called at short notice in Berlin on Friday evening. A couple of thousand Kurds and supporters were there.

The Kurdish resistance will see out Sultan Erdoğan. And the likely betrayal by the US and Europe after they defeat ISIS.

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11. Aonrud ⚘ - November 4, 2016

Eamonn Ryan is answering questions over on Reddit at the moment. Might interest some here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/5b341n/eamon_ryan_leader_of_the_green_party_and_td_for/

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Joe - November 4, 2016

He’s proposing a Bank Holiday for February 1st, St Bridget’s Day or the Celtic New Year Day or whatever you’re having yourself. First proposal from the Greens that I can 100% support.

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12. Starkadder - November 4, 2016

This is actually somewhat old, but may be of interest to some readers here. UFO Guru Erich von Däniken wrote an anti-communist letter to Gerald Ford:

“Western Europe seems to be penetrated nowadays by leftist blockheads. The press of the countries surrounding my neutral native country Switzerland is dominated by socialist dreamers. The big masses do not realize the ins and outs of our today’s situation and are blindly falling to the big deception…what is there that we can set over against the cummunist/socialist [sic] ideology?”

http://www.jasoncolavito.com/the-von-daniken-letter.html

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WorldbyStorm - November 5, 2016

Hmmm ‘blockhead’ says he?

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13. sonofstan - November 4, 2016

“The names of League of Ireland clubs are the shipping forecast of Irish sport. Bohemians, Sligo Rovers, Shamrock Rovers, Cork City, Finn Harps – they drop like rain into the consciousness of the average listener, but feel as remote as Viking, Forties or Dogger Bank”

From Ronan McGreevy’s rather good piece in the IT about Dundalk

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Dr.Nightdub - November 5, 2016

I think the subtext is that Bohs, Sligo, Rovers, Cork and Harps are all mere shipwrecks, while Dundalk are a veritable Titanic.

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14. roddy - November 5, 2016

Donegal would be my nearest free state county but I think I was in my thirties before I knew Finn Harps were based in Stranorlar!

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sonofstan - November 5, 2016

Ballybofey *cough*

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CMK - November 5, 2016

Partitionism, no known cure, sadly.

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15. roddy - November 5, 2016

A new stadium just over the bridge in Stranorlar has been in stop start mode since 05.A sign for nearly a decade says “welcome to Stranorlar -home of Finn Harps” ! Don’t blame me for Free State incompetance!

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sonofstan - November 5, 2016

🙂

Fair point, well made. I haven’t been up there in a while and I remember that sign.

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16. roddy - November 5, 2016

Don’t worry about it.We’re talking about literally a few yards of a bridge which seperate both metropoli..(Is metropoli a real word?!)

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Joe - November 7, 2016

Whether metropoli is a word or not, neither Ballybofey nor Stranorlar is one. Bellaghy, on the other hand…

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

Ah Bellaghy – no finer urban conurbation.

The proximity of the peasants from Charlestown is unfortunate, however.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Build a wall and make them pay for it.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

I think we can safely assume that the Bellaghy referred to hear is the real Bellaghy, not the pale imitation further north.

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17. oconnorlysaght - November 6, 2016

I think the correct term is metropoles (pronounced, if necessary. ‘metropolees’). Certainly, I have used it.

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18. eamonncork - November 6, 2016

The ethics of whether to send a child into a secondary school which says it’s opening as usual tomorrow. Please advise.

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Joe - November 6, 2016

Sit them down. Talk to them about the struggle of labour vs capital. Talk to them about the ASTI strike. Suggest to them that they should make the journey to the school gate – if there’s a picket on it, they should go home (or into a field with a few cans or a spliff or whatever); if no picket, they should go in and start a discussion on morning break about what the kids should be doing re the strike. Topics for discussion might include mass exodus and picket the gate with the teachers; 24 hour occupation with alternative curriculum developed by the boys and girls; or carry on going to classes as usual and let the ‘grown-ups’ sort it out.

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yourcousin - November 6, 2016

Have them walk the picket. Don’t cross the line.

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eamonncork - November 6, 2016

I’ve done all this. And they know not to pass a picket anywhere, never mind at their own school. But apparently the teachers will be in the classrooms tomorrow, just not supervising, as distinct from Tuesday which is the actual strike. So there won’t be a picket tomorrow.
I’d have thought the supervision ban would have meant the school was closed but apparently not. Just wondered what people thought about this situation which to be honest most of us didn’t think would arise. I thought the school would be closed till the thing was resolved so this strikes me as a grey area. My own feeling would be that pupils going in undercut the ASTI’s tactics and allow the portrayal of a ‘parents rally against the teachers’ scenario. Yet this is a difficult one to argue when the teachers are actually going in themselves.

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yourcousin - November 6, 2016

Talk to the steward or business agent. I’m guessing it’s contractural thing so they met tell you to have your child attend.

It is a grey area so my thoughts are as follows.
1) Pull your kid.
2) If you choose to have them attend, have them wear pro union shirts and/buttons.
3) I would agree with your instinct that this is designed to drive a wedge between the teachers and the community.

You have my sympathy as this is a tough one.

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eamonncork - November 6, 2016

Good luck Tuesday YC.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 6, 2016

It’s a hard one Eamonn, but I think I’d err on the side of keeping them away.

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6to5against - November 7, 2016

I’m just heading into work now and expect to face an empty school. I would love it if pupils turned up.
The ASTI is not trying to close schools today. It is trying to keep them open.

We are withdrawing from supervision work because the govt refuse to pay us for it. They say they’ll pay others and – for the moment at least – we’re happy enough to see them to do so. But they have also failed to organise our replacements – despite having 3 months warning that this was coming down the tracks.

The closing of schools to day is an attempt to lock teachers out. Forcing the schools to open would be helpful to our cause, and would not be resented.

On the other hand (just to add to the confusion) tomorrow is a strike day, and obviously there will be pickets.

The only cause the ASTI is campaigning on at the moment is equal pay scales for all teachers.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Thanks 65. It is a confusing one but if the ASTI would prefer the schools open, that’s good enough for me. What you said mirrors what I heard from a teacher last night when we checked. I gather TUI members are doing the supervision today in our case. Best wishes today.

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19. roddy - November 6, 2016

Me and my classmates over 40 years ago would never have went near the school gates if there had been even a hint of a strike, would have labelled the teachers sell out merchants for even hinting at compromise and when all was over would have stayed home a couple of extra days just to make sure!

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20. Gewerkschaftler - November 6, 2016

I’m sure that WBS will post something, but is now the time for the US readers of this blog to give some of their predictions for Tuesday?

I, frankly, daren’t.

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CL - November 6, 2016

Comey again:

“FBI Director James Comey said in a letter to members of Congress on Sunday that the bureau reviewed all emails to and from Hillary Clinton that were recovered on Anthony Weiner’s laptop, and found nothing in them that changes his conclusion in July that Clinton did not commit a crime.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/06/fbi-director-james-comey-clears-hillary-clinton-on-new-emails.html

” betting markets show Clinton’s probability of winning the election improving by about 3 percentage points on the news.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-comey-hurt-clintons-chances/

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WorldbyStorm - November 6, 2016

Gewerkschaftler, I thought about it, and then came to the conclusion that I don’t dare either.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

He has however probably given the Republican campaign enough of a boost to enable them to go very close to winning the senate.
The candidate of Perpetual War to beat the straight talking foe of Political Correctness by a slender 288 to 250. A surprise 51-49 win for the republicans in the Senate

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Though if I’m being faithful to the tried and tested system rather than my dark imaginings the odds are indeed moving significantly in Clinton’s favour and indicate something more like 315-223.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

Paddy Power giving 4/1 for the Trumpster. Is a bet worth it at those odds?

I see that that a repeat of Ireland-NZ on 19th is now at evens. Remarkable.

I thought I’d slip that in, given the disdain for that kind of running around after an odd-shaped ball in this parish.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

I think it might be. But they’re also going evens for him in North Carolina, 13/8 in Florida and 10/3 in Nevada which seem even better value. He can win those three and still not win the election and the first would strike me as a dead cert for him. A decent sum on North Carolina will enable a worry free punt on the rest of them.
Usual disclaimers apply.

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irishelectionliterature - November 7, 2016

Despite the polls, I just have a feeling Trump is going to sneak it.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

I have myself though I’m really not sure how much that has do with a congenital morbidity of the mind. It’s certainly far from done and dusted. New Hampshire is the one to watch, it’s the one where it could all come unstuck for both Clinton and the Senate. And I do have this odd feeling about Pennsylvania.
If he does win it will of course be entirely the fault of anyone on the CLR who disagreed with me about the election. Digital seppuku will obviously be their only honourable course.

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RosencrantzisDead - November 7, 2016

I am going with the polls and calling it for Clinton. Her popular vote lead will be slight but she will comfortably beat Trump in electoral college vote.

Although, I predicted a slight win for remain before the Brexit vote…

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

Me too about Brexit. Which is why I’m not making any predictions. Don’t underestimate the anti-establishment vote even when it’s manipulated by a member of the establishment like Mr. T.

The point SoS makes about motivation is important.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

I think she’ll actually do better in the popular vote than in the college. It’s possible she could win the first by 3% and still lose the second.

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sonofstan - November 7, 2016

I think people going to vote for Trump will be excited about it, whereas people voting Clinton will be resigned/ fearful – much as with Brexit.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

Exactly – and that effects whether people are willing to make the effort. Remarkable that it isn’t a public holiday, as Sanders suggested.

Of course the Democrat hierarchy are blaming Sanders for the lack of enthusiasm. Shoe on precisely the wrong foot.

I’m guessing Sanders would be looking at a solid 10-point lead over Trump. But that’s in the world of counter-factuals and I can’t be proved wrong!

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

You could argue that a narrow Clinton victory coupled with a poor senate result makes it more likely than not that the door will be wide open for a Sanders, or Sanders style, candidate to win the nomination next time.
Speaking of counterfactuals, I’ve always felt that Warren would have beaten Clinton if she’d gone for it. She lacked Sanders’ courage. It’s like all the high profile democrats chickening out in 1992 because George Bush was unbeatable and handing it to Bill Clinton.
Be very interesting to see who the Republicans go for in 2020. If Trump doesn’t win he will certainly come close enough for them to feel that the problem isn’t the lurch to the far right but the personality of the candidate. So you could end up with young hard right darling Tom Cotton from Arkansas getting the nomination.
He’s worth watching over the next four years. The more centrist choice, by Republican standards, would be Ben Sasse of Nebraska but I’ve a hunch that if the lose they’ll spend the next four years in ‘mad as hell’ mode at having the election decided by the votes of lesser breeds without the law.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity.
If there was ever a rough slouching beast it’s Donald.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016
Joe - November 7, 2016

I’m predicting a Clinton win. From my limited reading of things, she seems to have been ahead in the polls for most of the campaign. Her lead spiked after Trump’s tape boasting about sexual assault. But it inevitably narrowed again in the last few weeks as the election day got closer – that was people who’d gone off Trump after the tape came out, going back to him as the reality of election day got closer. But Clinton maintained her earlier narrow lead which will see her over the line.
PS I predicted Mayo to win the football final replay.

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RosencrantzisDead - November 7, 2016

This site has the probability of a Clinton at 99% and has a pretty good explanation of their data.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016
21. roddy - November 7, 2016

Have you your sheepskin coat and hipflask ready?

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

Always. Especially when I’m in Bellaghy.

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22. irishelectionliterature - November 7, 2016
CMK - November 7, 2016

Coming here soon.

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23. Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

John Pilger on the chance of a hot Cold War Mk. II and the rest of the world’s fears about the next US president.

These issues have not been addressed and I don’t think there’s any doubt that Clinton who has very unusually named a cabinet already in a sense and a very good article by one of the independent journalists in Washington, Gareth Porter, listed these people and they’re all war hawks. And she said it in the last debate. I’m going to have a no-fly zone in Syria. That means attacking Russian planes.

Well I can’t find the list, and wouldn’t be able to judge whether they are war-mongers or not. Anyone?

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dublinstreams - November 7, 2016

well tbf i think she a negotiated no-fly zone with the agreement of Russia atleast

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Vote Donald for peace then obviously.

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dublinstreams - November 7, 2016

criticism of Clinton is not support of Trump

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Here we go again. It’s a joke son.
US Presidential stuff apart, Pilger’s attitude towards Syria seems to be that it’s the Spanish Civil War and Assad is the Republic. Criticism of Assad is not support of jihad.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

That’s should be ‘Vote Donald for hairpiece’ shouldn’t it?

Pilger may be a bit gung-ho but the basic thrust that the US will be likely to ramp up the tension with and paranoia among other nuclear armed super-powers under Clinton sounds to me fairly plausible.

Hey ho and whoops apocalypse.

But it will be an apocalypse where the ‘free world’ is ‘led’ by a woman. So that’s all right then.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

If I may continue to spoil your day – these days the chances of a nuclear accident is increased by the increasingly aggressive equipping for so called ‘cyberwar’ by penetration and sabotage of the enemies IT infrastructure. That such an attack might not contribute to a false positive on early warning system is not inconceivable. That risk wasn’t there in the 1980s when we last woke up to the madness of MAD.

That and the propensity to hand over decisions (for example, about which human beings in the Middle East to wipe out by means of drones) to dodgy algorithms flogged to the military security complex by some huckster on the West Coast or in Israel does not make me feel any safer.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

I agree entirely with both of your above posts G.
But more importantly; Which of us gets to be the House Sligoman?

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Gewerkschaftler - November 7, 2016

It depends on on the jollies that go with that honorific, Eamonn.

If there free bus trips to Bellaghy and Onion Badjhis from the Taste of India, we’ll rotate. You can have the leap years.

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yourcousin - November 7, 2016

G,
I would point out that many folks have already felt cyber attacks, Estonia 2007, Georgia 2008, Poland 2014, Ukraine this year which actually took down the power grid. The DNC hack. So yes cyber war is happening. And the overwhelming majority of them are taking place against those who draw the Kremlin’s ire. This idea that Russia has a sphere of influence and has a right to veto another countries decision on foreign policy is mistaken. It wasn’t right when the US was doing it in Central America during the Cold War and it isn’t right when Russia does it today.

I would also reiterate that major tension in Asia right now is the South China Sea issue. The main issue is China just doing a massive sea grab and telling everyone to fuck off.

I would also draw attention to the Hong Kong democracy protests but that’s just because I have a soft spot for democracy.

Russia is not the Soviet Union. There are many problems with US foreign policy, but it doesn’t take two to tango. Billy Idol showed us all that when it comes to ratcheting up tensions they can most definitely be dancing by themselves.

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dublinstreams - November 7, 2016

the majority cyber warfare is being carried out by Russia, not the country that dominates the internet, the USA? see the NBC story on US threats to attack Russia if it attacks the election http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hackers-ready-hit-back-if-russia-disrupts-election-n677936 your are left with the impression that both side do that same stuff

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yourcousin - November 7, 2016

D,
I’m aware of Biden’s threats. But do you not differentiate between threats and attacks that have actually been carried out?

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dublinstreams - November 7, 2016

you saying the USA has never electonically attacked anyone, or perhaps everyone?

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yourcousin - November 7, 2016

Stuxnet off the top of my head. But it hardly seems fair to have me make both sides of the argument now does it?

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yourcousin - November 7, 2016

So many factual errors in that article that I don’t even know where to begin…

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CL - November 8, 2016
24. Deadon@hell.com - November 7, 2016

Please begin, our house yank.

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eamonncork - November 7, 2016

Brave post.

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WorldbyStorm - November 7, 2016

That’s a contemptible comment “Deadon”, and pretty pathetic too.

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yourcousin - November 7, 2016

I’ve got to review specs for an upcoming job at a city hospital. I’ll try to type something up tonight. Though I need to buy and install a new dishwasher before I head out of town on Friday so we’ll see.

Off the top of my head though I would point out that:
Chinese reclaimation efforts in the South China Sea are offensive in nature.
Obama did do a deal with Iran, not just refrain from attacking them.
The US did not finance the Maidan
Putin does not see Russia’s future in Europe hence the Eurasian Economic Union.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 8, 2016

OK YC – there are other viewpoints:

Maidan – we don’t know who financed it. It’s unlikely that the CIA & state department were uninvolved in giving internal forces a helping hand, at the very least. It’s not always a question of simply financing regime change from null – although that has been a technique of the US for decades. They certainly bankrolled enough ‘civil society’ NGOs in the Ukraine.

The Chinese could be seen to be responding the Obama’s ‘Pivot to the East’ – which involves asserting US military dominance over international waters. Is it that surprising that the Chinese reacted?

Agree on Iran – one of the few achievements of Obama’s presidency.

Putin attempted to come to a deal with Europe in his earlier, possibly saner, incarnation but was rebuffed. The Brezinski Doctrine of encirclement and dismemberment of Russia is alive and well in the US. Had NATO stuck to the agreement made with Gorbachev to not expand east we would be in the current dangerous predicament.

As you say it takes two to tango. It also takes two to make peace. The US doesn’t seem interested in that wrt. to Russia and China and will continue along that road under Clinton. There’s just too much profit to made in wars and the preparation for war.

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WorldbyStorm - November 8, 2016

One other positive – the opening to Cuba

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yourcousin - November 8, 2016

South China Sea- China has been claiming it since the 40s and has in the past prior to “the pivot” fought skirmishes with other southeast Asian nations. But I’ve got to say I love how Americans get the stance of “original sin” versus the “state of nature” given to “the other”.

Ukraine-I know that it is hard to believe but it is quite possible that the primary motivating factor for those who participated in the Maidan was to have a better life in a rules based system rather than a corrupt patronage state. I mean look, I know they’re Slavs, but they too are capable of agency (maybe). I would point out that the US is still funding NGOs that in Ukraine and that they often do better work than the government. I don’t want a western friendly government that is up to its eyeballs in corruption (largely what there is now). I want a Ukraine that works for the people of Ukraine. Competency and a thriving civil society. It’s not the worker’s revolution, but it is certainly better than the alternative.

I wish bookmarked all the times I went into the rabbit hole and drug up these obscure dates and arguments. As I’ve already addressed the NATO expansion controversy before.

But to recap. NATO didn’t guarantee shit. It was discussed, but never finalized and those discussions largely centered on East Germany. Even by March 1990 both Hungary and Poland were lobbying for NATO presence in their countries. And that’s the crux of the matter. What many on the left see as a buffer between a hostile west and a chastened Russia left the former eastern bloc countries feeling vulnerableable. The countries and people who actually had Russia’s boot on their neck wanted protection, so they came to NATO. There is nothing wrong with that. Especially in line of the fact that Russia is now redrawing the map of Europe to their liking.

Remember, Russia is not the USSR no matter how they and some of their fellow travelers might wish it so. They have as much right to their sovereignty as the next guy. What they do not have the right to do is exercise a veto on states that they formerly occupied through the barrel of a gun.

Again, and sounding like broken record here. The Russians and China have sovereignty. They can make their own choices. They have both chosen the path that they are on. And they can choose to change paths as well.

Dude! You totally misconstrued my point and even my multi media presentation on international relations in pursuit of a multipolar world order (the Billy Idol video). No one forced Russia to bully their smaller neighbors, ditto with China. They’ve done that all on their own. American policy did not make Russia do anything. And if you want to see a society running on war as theatre then look to Russia, not the US. The prospect of war and conflict is not popular here. The real threat is that Putin will try to do Hillary like he did Merkel (thinking of the dog incident).

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yourcousin - November 8, 2016

And sorry in advance for the snark. I’m sick, I’m tired and I’m stuck eating oatmeal for breakfast and that has me annoyed. Not to mention electoralism, definitely one of my big pet peeves.

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Gewerkschaftler - November 8, 2016

Fair ’nuff, YC. We’ll leave it at that and agree to disagree. It’s definitely not the night for it.

But the Ukraine is a vastly complicated place, and is under-reported in any kind of necessary depth. I only discovered recently that Poland has a post-colonial relationship with it – yes much of the Western Ukraine had a Polish aristocracy and mercantile class!

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yourcousin - November 8, 2016

Yes, Galicia is an interesting place.

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yourcousin - November 8, 2016

And I got the dishwasher installed! Boom Done! Remember, that if women don’t find you handsome, make sure they find you handy.

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25. CL - November 7, 2016

After tomorrow:

-To members of the alt-right, Mr. Trump is a transformative figure. It has been a long time since a mainstream politician, let alone a presidential nominee, talked about the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and warned about “international banks” plotting “the destruction of U.S. sovereignty.” Mr. Trump has given them the legitimacy they long craved.

“Trump reaffirms what we say,” Mr. Heimbach said. “He has brought to the forefront the policies of nationalism and secure borders.”-

-Meet the “Populist International”: Whoever wins the U.S. election Tuesday, its influence is here to stay….
All the signs are that the movement is still growing. If Trump loses, the story isn’t over..-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-is-a-threat-to-the-west-as-we-know-it-even-if-he-loses/2016/11/04/a8dc9100-a2cc-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html

‘Whatever happens in the US on Tuesday, the policy establishment in western economies will need to figure out how to respond more effectively to the politics of insurrection.’
https://www.ft.com/content/dba252f8-a29c-11e6-82c3-4351ce86813f

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26. gendjinn - November 8, 2016

Poll closing times & States to watch on Election Night. If the polls likely voter models are accurate it should be a Clinton victory. If not Trump could win in a few ways: (FL && (MI || PA)) || (MI && PA && NH).

Campaigns are in MN/MI/WI/PA/NC. The changes in spending patterns show the campaigns believe the battleground state of two weeks ago OH/GA/NC have moved to PA/OH/MI/WI/NC. The former would be a victory for Clinton, the latter opens the door to Trump.

FL closes 11:00 PM DST – should go for Clinton, if it doesn’t time to really worry.
VA closes 12:00 AM DST – should go for Clinton, if it doesn’t or it is closer than polls start being concerned.
NC/OH close 12:30 AM DST – if either go for Clinton, she is winning. If both she has won. Trump needs both.
PA/MI/TX close 1:00 AM DST – if TX goes Clinton that is the ball game. If one of MI/PA goes Trump, Clinton is in trouble. If both go Trump, then Trump is going to win.

There really should not be anything surprising after that bar black swan events further west.

The MN campaigning and spending may be all about the senate but if that is really a presidential battleground then I’d be worried today.

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27. eamonncork - November 8, 2016

I see Pilger has an exclusive interview with Assange who reveals that Clinton and ISIS are funded by the same people (Wonder which ethnic/religious group he’s hinting at there?) and that Trump ‘won’t be allowed to win’ the election.
I’m not joking. He really does. There was a time when this kind of stuff was largely confined to the fringes of the Right and Alien Abduction fans. People of supposedly diametrically opposed political viewpoints can apparently agree on one thing, which is that George Soros is running the world.
Trump is apparently outpolling Clinton in three categories, the old, white people and men. Glad I don’t spend any time on some website where almost everyone belongs to this demographic.

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Ivorthorne - November 8, 2016

Who you calling old!?

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WorldbyStorm - November 8, 2016

Indeed! I was going to make the same point as you Gw re the intersection, but I have to add that it seems a bit of a stretch to blame the CLR and those who comment on it for the woes of the world, I mean it’d be nice to have some influence but…

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Gewerkschaftler - November 8, 2016

Now I think you’re tending towards the classic Cohen / “extremes of right and left are the same” line.

Yes the hardly hidden real anti-Semitism of Trump and his cohorts of Sovereign-Independent type consipiracy theorists is certainly evident. This doesn’t mean that those critical of Clinton share that tendency.

Similarly it’s a non-sequitur to suggest that because the demographic sets you mentioned about poll well for Trump that the intersection set must necessarily share his views. Much of his support is coming from an alienated working class that hasn’t been offered a credible alterative from the left that they can vote for.

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Ed - November 8, 2016

I’d say the ethnic/religious group he’s hinting at is the Saudi-Wahhabi regime and its Gulf allies. No great mystery there; I mean he’s not really hinting at all, he’s saying so explicitly, so it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that he really means ‘the Jews’ when he says ‘the Saudis’. If somebody said there was a wealthy businessman in Ireland who had the whole political class under his thumb, you could assume they were talking about George Soros or one of the Rothschilds, and on some of the wilder shores of Freeman-ism you might be right, but in general it’s probably safer to assume they mean Denis O’Brien.

It’s true enough so far as it goes; they’ve given a lot of money to the Clinton Foundation and various Washington-based think-tanks, and they also gave money to ISIS and the Nusra Front, in their early days at least (according to Clinton’s own emails), along with various other jihadist movements around the world. ‘They’ in this case would be a fairly broad category, the ruling elite in those countries, who may not all be pushing in the same direction. I wouldn’t read all that much into it, I don’t think the Clintons are any more pro-Saudi than the average US politician, or their counterparts in other NATO countries. People used to make a great deal of the personal ties between the Bush family and the Saudis when W. was president but I don’t think that was very important either compared with the long-term alliance with the Saudis that everyone in the US foreign-policy elite agrees on. The Labour MPs who voted against their own party a couple of weeks ago and lined up to praise the Saudi war in Yemen in the most revolting manner probably haven’t got a penny from Riyadh (although they’ll probably be invited to a few expenses-paid junkets if they play their cards right). You don’t have to like Assange, you can think he’s a crank or an asshole and you might be right, but he hasn’t plucked this stuff out of his imagination.

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28. Ivorthorne - November 8, 2016

Apologies if I missed discussion elsewhere, but I have to say I’m impressed by Corbyns latest move re Brexit.

Labour are threatening to not support using article 50 until the Tories provide assurances regarding remaining part of the common market, workers rights etc.

They’re positioning themselves as not being against Brexit but against a Tory Brexit. If May does not agree, she may lose the vote, potentially triggering an election. If she agrees, the only deal she can get will involve freedom of movement and the backlash from the hard-Brexit folk and the UK press will be massive.

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WorldbyStorm - November 8, 2016

+1

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Ed - November 8, 2016

I agree, it’s a sensible move, although you wouldn’t believe the amount of wailing and moaning that’s been directed at the Labour leadership by British liberals who can’t understand why they won’t go on a suicide mission by trying to overturn the result of the referendum altogether. I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve heard people claim that Labour are ‘invisible’ or ‘irrelevant’ on this issue when what they really mean is ‘they won’t do what we tell them!’ The Guardian/New Statesman posse have been going like the clappers on this theme over the last few days. A rare bit of common sense here:

https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/abi-wilkinson-labour-mps-cant-afford-be-blocking-brexit

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WorldbyStorm - November 8, 2016

Good piece Ed. I think the idea of ignoring the referendum result is quite mad. Basic truth is the UK is exiting the EU. But arguing for x or y version of Brexit and x or y relationship with the EU outside the EU is perfectly reasonable and I’d worry about those who would put the BLP to the fire over this to fight a fight it is ill suited to fight and one they themselves lost. .

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Ed - November 8, 2016

Yes, there’s plenty of room to challenge the Tories over this, all their confusion and contradictions about whether it’s a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit or a half-assed, make-it-up-as-we-go-along Brexit, but that won’t happen if people are looking for ways to ignore the referendum result altogether. There seems to be a wildly unrealistic notion about that the court ruling last week offers a golden opportunity to wipe the slate clean and act as if the referendum never happened. In reality that ruling was a good thing, not because it means you can cancel the outcome, but because it stops the Tories from acting as if they have carte blanche to go off and negotiate whatever the hell they like.

BTW to give you a sense of how god-awful some of these liberals are, one of them cited as damning proof of Labour’s ‘incompetence’ the fact that defence of workers’ rights was on their list of red-line issues, when May had already promised there would be no attacks on those rights. Imagine that, not trusting a Tory politician when they promise to uphold workers’ rights! They’ll be accusing them of pandering to racism next.

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WorldbyStorm - November 8, 2016

Wow, that’s self-deception by that person you mention in your last paragraph on an epic scale. I can’t understand why they would find fault in the LP doing precisely what the LP should do. But then as you say really it’s because the LP doesn’t do precisely what they want it to do.

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29. Joe - November 8, 2016

All the vibes are Clinton to win. Or do I only get vibes that suit me?

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CL - November 8, 2016

“Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model….This reflects a meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Also look at the graph of RCP national average, it looks like the last minute swing is to Clinton.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

These are national of course and electoral votes in individual states determine the outcome. Florida and North Carolina might be early indicators.

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CL - November 8, 2016

“Mrs. Clinton will probably win the presidency if she can win Florida or North Carolina, states worth 29 and 15 votes in the Electoral College….
We will know very quickly whether Mrs. Clinton is poised to deliver a knockout blow in either state….
The polls close in most of Florida at 7 p.m., and early vote results — which could represent 65 percent of the final vote — will come in fast….
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 p.m., and the vote is counted quickly there as well.”

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30. Joe - November 8, 2016

“Trump is apparently outpolling Clinton in three categories, the old, white people and men. Glad I don’t spend any time on some website where almost everyone belongs to this demographic.”

Why yuh trollin me mon? Is it cos I is black?

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