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Brexit and after: workers on these islands November 7, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Two important straws in the wind in relation to the above this morning. First from the UK this in the Guardian, perhaps little surprise that:

Theresa May’s commitment to protect workers’ rights after Brexit has come into question before a House of Commons debate on the impact leaving the EU will have on employment laws.

The prime minister made a pledge to stick to EU protections such as guarantees of paid holiday, maternity and paternity rights and time off in between shifts. But an examination of her past statements on workers’ rights reveals that she repeatedly attacked the then Labour government’s decision to sign up to the EU’s social chapter when the Conservatives were in opposition.

Meanwhile, this side of the Irish Sea and in this state, in the Irish Times:

The long-term impact of Brexit on Ireland is likely to be “severe” with the economy shrinking by up to 4 per cent, a study by the Department of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has warned.

And:

Under a “hard Brexit” scenario, with the UK leaving the single market altogether, Irish gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 3.5 per cent lower than it might have been within five years, equating to nearly €10 billion in lost output. Over a ten-year period, the potential contraction in GDP is projected to be 3.8 per cent.
The “hard Brexit” scenario, which assumes the reintroduction of trade tariffs, is also predicted to push unemployment 1.9 points higher than it might have been, while reducing average wages by up to 3.6 per cent.

Or alternatively ‘under a more benign scenario’ where the UK joined the EEA… well, it’s not that much more benign, with GDP down 2.3%, unemployment up 1.2% and wages 2.2% lower.

Comments»

1. makedoanmend - November 7, 2016

If the various numerical projections are correct (and this is always a big ‘if’), what does this say about the notion that we are a small “open” economy? The notion implies that we are open to all means of capital flows and production possibilities – it sort of implies we are a varied and complex economy. Should we not then relatively easily chart a course through these troubled waters?

Clearly Brexit implies this is not so.

[…maybe we are just open to all forms of exploitation and not much else?]

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WorldbyStorm - November 7, 2016

I’ve never regarded the idea of us as a small open economy as anything less than problematic although I’m not sure we’ve any great choice in it. Were like the living accentuated embodiment of the line if the US sneezes the world catches a cold economically. Also it underscores how connected all modern economies are.

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makedoanmend - November 7, 2016

“…although I’m not sure we’ve any great choice in it.”

TINA?

LOL, I know what you mean and share the sentiment – but it’s telling how impacted and “lodged” certain tropes become.

But I do wonder how connected we are — or is it dependent?

best

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