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That SBP/RedC poll November 29, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I’ve got to admit I’ve got near nothing on it. Nothing I tell you. The latest poll from the SBP and RedC points to the essentially static picture we have seen since the election. There’s some slight variation as there has been at the edges, but the fundamentals remain largely the same as they have for months across this year. Indeed striking indeed is the lack of change. Next to nothing on the right side of the fence. And little enough on the left.

Fine Gael 25% (no change)

Fianna Fáil 24% (-2)

Sinn Féin 16 % (+3)

Independents 12% (+2)

AAA-PBP 5% (-4)

Independent Alliance 4% (-2)

Labour 5% (no change)

Social Democrats 4% (+1)

Green Party 3% (no change)

And Others including Renua 1% (+1).

Perhaps the most useful way of looking at this is by considering how matters has changed since the Election.

Fine Gael 25.5 %

Fianna Fáil 24.3 %

Sinn Féin 13.8 %

Independents 11 %

AAA-PBP 3.9 %

Independent Alliance 4.2 %

Labour 6.6 %

Social Democrats 3 %

Green Party 2.7 %

And Others including Renua 3.5 % +

Hardly any change at all. An election run tomorrow would have – likely – similar outcomes, not identical but similar. Sinn Féin might do a bit better. General Independents a bit worse. Labour likewise. Perhaps.

Who is going to go to the state on foot of this poll? Hardly anyone.

Michael Taft has a good post here (noted by An Cathaoirleach) which argues that there’s a consolidation on the right, and that is certainly possible even on these figures. If there’s a shy FF vote then it is possible that they might do better than the current headline figure in the polls. But even so, we’re probably talking at most three to five per cent. Not to be sniffed at and FF would be happy indeed to leapfrog ahead of FG and in such a way. But the other side of Michael’s argument is well worth considering. That the left hasn’t taken off. I think that’s a fair assumption too.

What’s interesting as well though is that left arguments have to some degree defined the post election space. Not just on water charges – but, as evidence in the attitudes to public sector pay at the weekend, in terms of support for pay restoration. That’s no mean feat. Of course if actual political heft can be added to that, well that would be a significant step forward.

Comments»

1. Dermot O Connor - December 2, 2016

Bit late, but FYI, seat projections from AK:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/11/28/back-to-the-feb-ture-constituency-level-analysis-of-sunday-business-post-red-c-opinion-poll-27th-november-2016/

Fianna Fail 47
Fine Gael 49
Sinn Fein 28
AAAPBP 7
Labour Party 1
Green Party 2
Social Democrats 4
Independents 20

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