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Meanwhile in the North East of England December 4, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…there’s this. Which as Liberius notes is completely useless being an online self-selected poll.

In a massive turnaround from the EU referendum result, the North East now wants to remain in Europe.

That is the impression given by our poll which saw an emphatic 73% to 27% margin of victory for Remain.

This compares to June 23 when the North East came out conclusively for Brexit, the Leave campaign winning 58% of the popular support.

In our survey more than 1,500 people took part of who 1,114 voted for Remain and 412 for Leave.

It would be useful at some point for someone to do a proper poll.

More useful is this from UKPOLLINGReport from a while back which addresses some more substantive issues.

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Comments»

1. Liberius - December 4, 2016

An open access, self-selecting online voodoo poll; it’s as robust as an inflatable dart board.

Here’s the link to the original article invites the good folk of the North-East to participate.

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/how-would-you-vote-second-12245848

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WorldbyStorm - December 4, 2016

Ah, interesting, no use at all so.

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2. simonjkyte - December 4, 2016

absolutely rubbish. why are people still believing these ‘polls’. according to my company renzi has 70% chance of surviving – hahahaha its laughable. it’s like a deathwish

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WorldbyStorm - December 4, 2016

Are you saying polls in general or this one in particular? Polling in the general hasn’t lost its use as an indicative of opinion. The problem is when people assume that polling is so specific that it predicts the future without question. Or when a poll isn’t robust in the first place, a question that was asked by me of this one initially and answered by Liberius.

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simonjkyte - December 4, 2016

sorry but that is so naive. they serve the interests of the people who run them

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WorldbyStorm - December 4, 2016

I dislike the naive line. For a start what is it based on? A simplification on your part of what polls are and are not or what my view of them is.

I would never dispute that polls serve those who run them. But that isn’t the totality of them – otherwise they’d be dismissed out of hand by those who don’t run them, or rather, and this isn’t an unimportant distinction those who commission them.

But I know from first hand experience of political formations of various stripes that they do keep an eye on polling data – whatever the source as long as it is reasonably robust. Now perhaps they’re all naive too. It’s possible. But it makes sense to assess polls cautiously but carefully.

It’s overly simplistic to see tolls simply as lies propagated by those who commission them. They can certainly be used to influence outcomes – but that’s not all they are. They are also potentially useful to keep a sense of a broad public mood. Indeed they can also be indicative of how people want to alter the political weather. And – in broad outlines, as party polling in this state shows, they can be pretty much spot on for general trends even if inaccurate at a granular level. That’s why – for example, on this site I never make too much of shifts in support of 1-3%. It just doesn’t mean anything. And further more in multi-seat constituencies under PRSTV it’s not hugely useful in delivering final outcomes. But it is handy as a means of assessing broader levels of support – by way of another example, the dizzying fall of the Irish Labour Party across the last seven years and the potential for that fall to continue.

And it’s moot anyhow since they’ll be around for the foreseeable future. They exist. We use what we can from them, dismiss what we can’t and at all times keep a sceptical mind about their provenance.

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3. paschal - December 5, 2016

Was just up in the North East in Darlington today at a Christmas Party that supports children with a particular condition such as my son has and spoke with a couple of people re brexit. Its amazing just how liberating people seem to view the result. I voted to remain but all of the people in my immediate (drinking) circle in Leeds, and those that I spoke with today are all, or seemed to be on the evidence of today, on the left social democratic /labour/further left of the spectrum and all voted to leave. What they all have in common is enjoying nothing of the economic benefits of the past 20 years or so. In terms of my particular group of friends, a large percentage of whom are ex or soon to be ex printers, their instincts seem to be trumped by anger and even if it does not end up being beneficial to them there is a sense of having delivered a blow to the comfortable class.

It really is a dangerous time with little progressive options open to those whose support and votes were taken for granted in the past.

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