Yet another poll December 8, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
The Irish Times has a poll today, that yet again points to a fairly static picture of Irish politics. The larger so-called ‘centrist’ parties (copyright Pat Leahy) are in or around 27-30% each. Sinn Féin is on 17%, Ind/Others on 20% and Labour on 6%. Movement from the last IT/Ipsos MRBI poll is relatively small:
Fine Gael, 27 per cent (up one point compared with the result of the October poll); Fianna Fáil, 30 per cent (up four points); Labour, 6 per cent (up one point); Sinn Féin, 17 per cent (down two) and Independents/Others, 20 per cent (down four).
One knows one is in trouble with a poll when the photos of those representing parties and ind/others on graphics are perhaps the most interesting aspects. Is that really Shane Ross representing Ind/Other? Sure is.
With an MOE of 2.8% it’s difficult to get too exercised about this. By way of comparison here are the figures from the last RedC/SBP poll:
Fine Gael 25% (no change)
Fianna Fáil 24% (-2)
Sinn Féin 16 % (+3)
Independents 12% (+2)
AAA-PBP 5% (-4)
Independent Alliance 4% (-2)
Labour 5% (no change)
Social Democrats 4% (+1)
Green Party 3% (no change)
And Others including Renua 1% (+1).
Reading a bit into the articles one will find this sort of thing:
Sinn Féin’s drop of two points still leaves the party on a solid 17 per cent of the vote, but the decline in party support in Dublin to 13 per cent would be a concern if the trend was maintained in future polls.
The party may be losing some support to the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit group, which is on 6 per cent in the capital and 3 per cent nationally.
But apparently FF is ‘improving’ its support in Dublin.
And elsewhere one can read that:
Support for Independents/Others has fallen back four points. For the most part, the drop is among Independents who do not belong to one of the better known parties or groupings, the one exception being Shane Ross’s Independent Alliance which is marginally lower in this poll (down one point to 2 per cent). Other parties and groupings have held steady (Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit on 3 per cent; Green Party on 3 per cent; Social Democrats on 2 per cent; and Independents4Change on 2 per cent ).
Make of it what one will.