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Those last poll projections of the year and what of 2017? December 28, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Hats off to Adrian Kavanagh for a lonely job of providing projections on foot of polls across the year. It’s not that those are forensically accurate – how could they be? And he himself always says as much. But they are useful as offering a broad impression of where party strengths lie. And the last one earlier this month I find particularly interesting.

This was on foot of an Irish Times poll carried out then. The projections?

The 8th December Irish Times/Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 30% (up 4% relative to the previous Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll), Fine Gael 27% (up 1%), Independents and Others 20% (down 4%) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Social Democrats 2%, Green Party 3%, Independents 11%, Others 2% – Sinn Fein 17% (down 2%), Labour Party 6% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 55, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 27, Labour Party 3, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3, Social Democrats 2, Green Party 1, Independents 18.

A couple of thoughts. How accurate were the IT polls pre-2016? This page on wiki provides food for thought. Not bad is the answer. SF was overstated bu 1%, likewise FG by closer to 2.5%, others very slightly understated. This is no guarantee, but was considerably more accurate than the SBP/RedC poll (which I tend to think is better for determining the broader shifts in public opinion).

So assuming some drift it would seem that FF is consolidating some strength, FG there or thereabouts, smaller groups are remaining well within their usual bands of support, SF still stubbornly fixed in the mid-teens as usual.

Takeaways? SF should do slightly better on a good day, but might not. The LP is not going to be completely wiped out. AAA-PBP might be under pressure from an FF that pulls in a lot of transfers. The SDs are static. The GP may retain a foothold. Independents remain relatively strong.

None of this is guaranteed. All may change as the New Year develops. But given the aversion to decision making of this government, and the palpable aversion to pulling the plug on the part of FF as well as the limited scope for campaigns it is not difficult to envisage a continuation of the status quo albeit with FF gaining marginal levels of support.

I still think we’re not looking at an election any time soon – that being imminently. I’d almost put money on us reaching the Budget with the current government. But after that… well, we’ll see.


1. dublinstreams - December 28, 2016

Sarah Bardon IT boasted on their recent podast about how close the last Irish TImes poll published on the day of the election was to the results, well so f’ng what? what use is it?


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