Corbyn and after? January 3, 2017Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
Talking to a range of people recently I was surprised to hear some disquiet expressed over the Corbyn leadership and how it wasn’t really catching fire. These weren’t people who would be anti-Corbyn, anything but. Nor were they of the further left of the BLP or in any sense Blairite or Labour right. But their analysis was that Corbyn was in some trouble and hadn’t managed to move beyond his core support area and that while deeply respected there was a growing sense he might not be the man for the long haul. Names offered included John McDonnell.
I wasn’t sceptical of these views, or the analysis – I like Corbyn, and like McDonnell even more, but clearly the project isn’t taking in the way that had been hoped for beyond the LP and those who have joined. And that’s no small thing. There may be an election this year or next. Not a lot of time to shift forward. And – clearly – Brexit has changed matters considerably. Depressing to read the number of Labour worthies, and not just those on the right of the party, openly discussing immigration controls and so on. Thankfully the leadership has, so far at least, fended those calls off.
Jeremy Corbyn should consider his position as Labour leader if the party’s opinion poll ratings do not improve in the run-up to the next general election, the leader of the Unite union has said.
Len McCluskey, who has been one of Corbyn’s strongest supporters, said the Labour leader and his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, were “not egomaniacs” and would not want to keep their roles if there was no hope of victory.
It certainly adds credence to the views I heard just before Christmas. And just on immigration, I see Gerard Coyne who is challenging McCluskey for leadership of Unite is making ‘immigration control’ noises, which McCluskey is sort of echoing albeit in a much less pointed way. Again, depressing to see this dynamic taking effect.
Meanwhile, here’s more stirs to keep the pot on the boil… Still, note this which is not unimportant… from the Fabians who have their own agenda, almost needless to say:
But using projections based on recent polls, it says that even if either Ukip or the Lib Dems could tie with Labour on 20%, the electoral system would mean neither would win more than 20 seats, with Labour remaining at 140 to 150.
And there’s this little problem.
The Fabians’ report identifies a coherent response to Brexit as one of the main obstacles facing Labour. Using YouGov data, it calculates that the party has lost a net 400,000 votes since the last election among pro-leave electors, and 100,000 among those who backed remain, making its backing more strongly pro-remain than before.
This poses a “Brexit dilemma”, the study says, pointing out that Labour needs to somehow appeal more to leave voters without alienating existing supporters who opposed Brexit.