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An FG leadership poll? January 4, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Well make of it what you will:

A new opinion poll suggests that Fine Gael could make significant gains if Leo Varadkar was leader in a general election.

The poll indicates that compared to Enda Kenny’s leadership and two other contenders, Simon Coveney and Frances Fitzgerald, Mr Varadkar could generate a big bounce in support, and this might come largely at the expense of Fianna Fáil.

This comes on foot of another poll by the same crew, Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail, which saw party support at:

A new poll in the Irish Daily Mail says support for his party Fianna Fáil is at 31% – up 7 points since last spring’s vote.

When people were asked who they would back, Fine Gael and Enda Kenny got just 28% support.
Sinn Féin remain unchanged at 16%, Labour were down 1 to 6%, while the AAA-PBP were up 1 to 4%.

Full figures:

FF 31%
FG 28%
SF 16%
Ind 10%
Lab 6%
Green 3%
SD 2%

Still the pollsters then went and:

…split the 1,000 voters into three separate groups, of one third each. One group was asked how they would vote if Ms Fitzgerald was leader, the next group were asked how they would vote if Mr Coveney was leader and the last group if Mr Varadkar was leader.

Using this kind of split sample for a party leadership question based on a general election intention to vote is believed to be a new departure in Irish polling. It does, however, have an impact on the margin of error, which rises to 5.4% because the sample base is around 343.

And so with Fitzgerald as leader FG would get 29% but FF would be slightly ahead. With Coveney as leader FG would be on 31% and 2% ahead of FF. With Varadkar….

this poll sees Fine Gael rising to 36% with Fianna Fáil dropping to 24%.

Really? Though as RTÉ notes all sorts of caveats apply…

firstly, the sample size is small and the margin of error is therefore higher than on a standard national poll.

Entertaining to see the pot being stirred at this moment in regard to FG and its leadership. The Dáil doesn’t return until the 17th of January so presumably there’s no end of mischief making to be had. Meanwhile who are Ireland Thanks?

… a new polling company set up by Ed Brophy and Dr Kevin Cunningham. Both were involved with the Labour Party prior to the general election. Mr Brophy was senior adviser to the then leader and tánaiste Joan Bruton. Dr Cunningham conducted polling for the Labour Party and he also worked with the UK Labour Party.


1. lcox - January 4, 2017

The founders of “Ireland Thinks” clearly have a stellar track record in knowing what the Plain People of Ireland think, well suited to the august pages of the Daily Mail.

Perhaps comparable with Ireland’s greatest contribution to sociological research, the Dev Method (“When I want to know what the people of Ireland are thinking, I look into my heart”).


sonofstan - January 4, 2017

‘vascular oracularity’ as Tim Pat called it.

Liked by 1 person

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