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Opinion polling on Brexit… January 16, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Fascinating piece on UKPollingReport that examines polling on Brexit. It appears that public opinion in the UK remains pretty much as it has since the referendum.

All except the Gallup International poll are within the margin of error of the referendum result (I think the contrast is because the Gallup poll has a very large proportion of university educated respondents, which correlates with support for EU membership). On average they show only a small movement towards Remain and – looking closer – even that may be illusionary. Looking at the actual tables for the polls none of them show any real net movement between Remain and Leave voters, the small move to Remain is only because people who didn’t vote last time claim they are more likely to vote Remain this time. I would treat that with some degree of scepticism – of course, it could be those people took the result for granted and would be spurred into action in a second referendum… or it could be those who couldn’t be bothered last time probably wouldn’t be bothered in a second referendum either.

Still the thought strikes that that is a very thin comfort zone for those supporting Brexit given the broad consensus amongst commentators, economists and so forth both in the UK and outside it, that Brexit is going to seriously and negatively impact upon that state as time moves on. As UKPR notes:

….the majority of people think the government have a duty to implement the results of the referendum and and the majority of people are opposed to revisiting the question. However, given the vote was only 52-48 it wouldn’t take much to tip opinion in favour of staying once the consequences become a bit more visible. It remains to be seen if the negotiations or economic developments do change things.

And moreover – and this I think is telling – unlike the consolidation of support politically for the Tories since Brexit, it suggests that there’s been no ‘bounce’ of opinion towards Brexit. We see that sort of bounce time and again in polls after elections where the winning party gets a boost in their poll rating. It never lasts but it is hardly unwelcome. But if it’s not there to begin with.

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Comments»

1. sonofstan - January 16, 2017

Unless you’re a furriner there’s been no real impact yet, or even a sense of impending impact.

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charlie cairns - January 16, 2017

Well my home heating oil – to take one example, 600Litres, has risen from £170 last summer, to £245 now – that’s a “real impact”

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2. FergusD - January 17, 2017

I think there are quite a few who think Brexit has more or less happened and are thinking “well that doesn’t seem so bad, what was the fuss about?”. If they realsie Brexit hasn’t happened they will think invoking Article 50 is, and that won’t seem so bad. It is all going to take some time to see the effects, some things years down the road.

Alas I think many Brits just think the country (England or UK? Not sure) is so important things will just have to be better, how dare themuns make it worse, and how can they anyway!

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sonofstan - January 17, 2017

It can be strange sometimes moving from a country that is hyper-aware of how it appears to the world to one that thinks ‘world? there’s a world?’

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Michael Carley - January 17, 2017

May is promising Parliament a vote on the final deal, which is welcome to some. They don’t seem to have thought about what will happen if the UK rejects the final deal and the EU says “take it or leave it”. They really believe they’re that important.

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3. GW - January 17, 2017

So I think it’s now clearer after May’s speech.

The border that runs through Ireland will be a customs border and an immigration border.

This has enormous impact on both parts of Ireland.

There are three possibilities that I can see.

a) The maintenance of the border restrictions are outsourced to the RoI with free movement between the two juristictions.
b) NI is made an exceptional case within the ‘UK’, with free movement between the two parts of the island and borders policed by the UK in NI Airports and Ferryports.
c) A hard border is set up again with police, immigration and customs controls.

The position for EU citizens (including Irish nationals) living in the UK is less clear but it’s certain their rights to work and stay there will be reduced.

And England is on collision course with Scotland on the relationship with EU.

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Ed - January 17, 2017

Chances of Scottish independence just went up alright. The polls since the referendum haven’t been showing a solid majority for breaking with London, a lot of Scots seem reluctant to make that leap into the dark, but if it’s made crystal-clear to them that staying in the UK means being dragged down into the mire with Trump and Netanyahu as your only international allies, I could see the vote hardening up pretty fast.

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CL - January 17, 2017

‘Britain is seeking to shift the frontline of immigration controls to Ireland’s ports and airports to avoid having to introduce a “hard border” between north and south after the UK leaves the European Union….
London and Dublin will work to strengthen Ireland’s external borders in order to combat illegal migration into the UK once it leaves the European Union….
The joint Anglo-Irish border procedures will not be able to stem the arrival of EU nationals, as they will retain the right to free movement to live and work in the Irish Republic’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/09/britain-to-push-post-brexit-uk-immigration-controls-back-to-irish-border

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4. oconnorlysaght - January 17, 2017

Not just Trump & Netanyahu; Putin is also a possibility. Perhaps this year, too, Downing Street will be welcoming Wilders and Le Pen.
Anyone for Axis?

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Liberius - January 17, 2017

I believe most of the parties, if not all (I’m unsure about the SGP), currently represented in the Tweede Kamer have ruled out coalition with the PVV, so Wilders’ potential to wield power is limited. Le Pen is trailing in all polls to Fillion and Macron, her two most likely challengers, by a long distance; the gaps are in the order of two-to-one.

Their growing support is problematic, however it’s important to keep them in perspective.

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WorldbyStorm - January 17, 2017

Very important point. OCL is spot on that there are problems, but as you say the picture in Europe in particular is not as bad as might be thought – or indeed as some like Farage (and Trump) would like to portray it. It suits their purposes to suggest there’s an unstoppable tide to their political positions, but that’s not the case, at least not yet.

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Liberius - January 18, 2017

Although there is scepticism about whether the VVD are honest about ruling out coalition with PVV; and the 50+ party haven’t ruled it out, so there is a theoretical path for Wilders to some sort of power; although a VVD-PVV-50+ coalition would still be short according to the most recent Maurice de Hond poll (which is generally the best pollster for Wilders). I can’t see any coalition with Wilders as PM as any path to government is too contingent on the VVD who will inevitably want to keep Rutte in the post.

Veel partijen zetten vraagtekens bij de uitspraak van VVD-leider Rutte over samenwerking met de PVV. Rutte zei zondag dat de kans dat de VVD gaat regeren met de PVV nul is, maar wilde de partij niet expliciet uitsluiten. Ook fractievoorzitter Zijlstra herhaalde vandaag dat de VVD niet meedoet aan een kabinet met de PVV.

http://nos.nl/artikel/2153490-veel-scepsis-over-uitspraken-rutte-over-pvv.html

https://home.noties.nl/peil/

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5. yourcousin - January 17, 2017

Don’t forget Orban

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WorldbyStorm - January 17, 2017

I find him almost the most curious of the bunch. What the hell happened to Fidesz? A salutary example of how youthful enthusiasm can go very rancid.

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CL - January 17, 2017

‘The daughter of the late Hungarian-born US congressman Tom Lantos said on Sunday she is returning a distinguished state award to Hungary. Katrina Lantos Swett is protesting against the giving of the same award to journalist and writer Zsolt Bayer, who has made antisemitic and racist references in his articles.’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/katrina-lantos-swett-hungary-award

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yourcousin - January 17, 2017

One has to give to him, he led Fidesz into illiberal territory long before it was in fashion.

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WorldbyStorm - January 17, 2017

An early adopter, unfortunately.

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