Opinion polling on Brexit… January 16, 2017Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
All except the Gallup International poll are within the margin of error of the referendum result (I think the contrast is because the Gallup poll has a very large proportion of university educated respondents, which correlates with support for EU membership). On average they show only a small movement towards Remain and – looking closer – even that may be illusionary. Looking at the actual tables for the polls none of them show any real net movement between Remain and Leave voters, the small move to Remain is only because people who didn’t vote last time claim they are more likely to vote Remain this time. I would treat that with some degree of scepticism – of course, it could be those people took the result for granted and would be spurred into action in a second referendum… or it could be those who couldn’t be bothered last time probably wouldn’t be bothered in a second referendum either.
Still the thought strikes that that is a very thin comfort zone for those supporting Brexit given the broad consensus amongst commentators, economists and so forth both in the UK and outside it, that Brexit is going to seriously and negatively impact upon that state as time moves on. As UKPR notes:
….the majority of people think the government have a duty to implement the results of the referendum and and the majority of people are opposed to revisiting the question. However, given the vote was only 52-48 it wouldn’t take much to tip opinion in favour of staying once the consequences become a bit more visible. It remains to be seen if the negotiations or economic developments do change things.
And moreover – and this I think is telling – unlike the consolidation of support politically for the Tories since Brexit, it suggests that there’s been no ‘bounce’ of opinion towards Brexit. We see that sort of bounce time and again in polls after elections where the winning party gets a boost in their poll rating. It never lasts but it is hardly unwelcome. But if it’s not there to begin with.