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Latest SBP/RedC poll – little or no change January 28, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Kind of mirrors some of the trends apparent in the poll in the Sunday Times last week – not least a firming up of non-government Independents and a rise for FF. But no huge changes or surprises.

FF 27% (+3)

FG 24% (-1)

SF 14% (-2)

Non-aligned Independents 14% (+2)

Labour 5% (NC)

AAA/PBP 4% (-1)

GP 4% (+1)

SD 4% (NC)

Margin of Error 3%.

AAA/PBP will hardly be concerned by such minor movement. Interesting though isn’t it that in this poll SDs andthe GP are all in or around a certain level of support. I’ve long wondered are the GP well on the way to a sort of political rehabilitation? And will they prove transfer friendly? Their taking two seats was quite a coup last year. Holding them will be tricky, but not impossible, and does this suggest further gains? As to the SDs they seem to have good and bad days. I guess we can also throw in the LP into the mix. So just as FF vie for a vote in or around the mid to late 20s we’ve now four parties/alliances (excluding the IA) in or around 4% each.

And what of SF? Historically always weaker in SBP polls. I’d almost have thought the retirement of Martin McGuinness would have – given the general goodwill shown him, seen them get an uptick, but nope.

As always difficult to see FF willing to cut and run on all this. But with the cack-handed noises coming out of the governing party this last week about leadership, coalitions and so on perhaps events will speed the day.


1. Paddy Healy - January 29, 2017

“No Changes or surprises ” sums it up over all
But we now have a series of polls in which the Labour Party(5%) are polling the same vote as AAA-PBP, Social democrats,Green Party when margin of error o 3% is taken into account. This is disastrous for them.
Non-aligned Independents are at 14%-almost 3 times the Labour Vote

Sinn Fein is stalled. They have accepted the Fiscal Treaty though remain “Eu Critical” They have accepted that they can be a minority in coalition if the deal is right!! But the most important thing is WHAT THEY ARE NOT DOING
They are refusing to use their Dáil and local authority strength to mobilise tens of thousands against lack of housing, lack of hospital beds etc
Clearly SF is moving rapidly to the right. Come back Proinsias De Rossa-All is forgiven!!!


Aengus Millen - January 29, 2017

I think people exaggerated Mary Lou’s comments I still think them going in as a minority partner is unlikely given their singleminded purpose and the radicalism of their activists. I also think you’re slightly unfair on them in terms of activism. True they are not as practiced in this as AAAPBP but their activists are involved as are politicians like Eoin O’Broin


2. Paddy Healy - January 30, 2017

Not to Rule out going into Coalition with Fianna Fail and/or Fine Gael in any form is to concede sovereignty of Irish people to the Franco-German Alliance under the Fiscal Treaty. The Fiscal Treaty is preventing government from borrowing to build social houses. Remember “the Fiscal Treaty Flies in the Face of the 1916 Proclamation.” (Caoimhín O Caoláin SF Dail Record) Not to rule out entering a coalition with FF, FG with SF as a minority party has shocked many party supporters. Of course, taking FF, FG into government with Sinn Féin as a majorityis equally bad.In such an arrangement FF and or FG would have a veto. The Franco-German Alliance would continue through the Fiscal Treaty with the 26-county budget requiring prior approval by foreign powers.

Sinn Féin and left groups carry out a good deal of local activism, speaking on media, issuing statements etc
But what is required is a major mass mobilisation of the Irish People north and south on the streets against austerity linked to absence of sovereignty in Dublin and Belfast.The Water Charges Campaign points the way.
Sinn Fein is in a unique position to launch such a campaign because it is probably theparty with greates support in the 32-counties. Instead it is implementing British Cuts (elimination of 20,000 public service jobs despite condemnation by trade unions) in the north
Petty politicking and worse in two non-sovereign parliaments is to abandon the republican principles of Pearse, Connolly, Tone


Paddy Healy - January 30, 2017

The Public Service Strike in the north against the cuts in 2016 is another signpost pointing in the right direction. Processes such as these must be brought together on an All-Ireland basis


3. ivorthorne - January 30, 2017

As a matter of interest, do CLR readers feel that there is any merit to SF’s argument that they are not responsible for austerity in the North?

I understand that their power is limited by Westminster and by the nature of power-sharing but were there options they avoided?


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