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A small thing, but another aspect of Brexit… and some polling. February 9, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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British tourists will have to pay mobile phone operators’ roaming charges when they travel in the EU after Brexit, according to the European parliament committee that helped pioneer the legislation.Despite a ban on the practice, holidaymakers and business travellers will face hefty bills if they use their phone within the EU from 2019, unless the British government strikes a favourable deal with the union.

How could it be otherwise? The UK is placing itself outside the EU – therefore the benefits of same are restricted.

Meanwhile this reported on the BBC is useful, a further breakdown of the Brexit vote which has a range of broad conclusions:

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:
• The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters – populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)
• The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census
• The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave
• Ethnicity was crucial in some places, with ethnic minority areas generally more likely to back Remain. However this varied, and in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave
• The combination of education, age and ethnicity accounts for the large majority of the variation in votes between different places
• Across the country and in many council districts we can point out stark contrasts between localities which most favoured Leave or Remain
• There was a broad pattern in several urban areas of deprived, predominantly white, housing estates towards the urban periphery voting Leave, while inner cities with high numbers of ethnic minorities and/or students voted Remain
• Around 270 locations can be identified where the local outcome was in the opposite direction to the broader official counting area, including parts of Scotland which backed Leave and a Cornwall constituency which voted Remain
• Postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station

Just on educational attainment that may, indeed obviously it will, function as will all axis in a number of ways. For example the report suggests that:

This powerful link to educational attainment could stem from the lower qualified tending to feel less confident about their prospects and ability to compete for work in a competitive globalised economy with high levels of migration.
On the other hand some commentators see it as primarily reflecting a “culture war” or “values conflict”, rather than issues of economics and inequality. Research shows that non-graduates tend to take less liberal positions than graduates on a range of social issues from immigration and multi-culturalism to the death penalty.

And crucially:

Of course this assessment does not imply that Leave voters were almost all poorly educated and old, and Remain voters well educated and young. The Leave side obviously attracted support from many middle class professionals, graduates and younger people. Otherwise it couldn’t have won.

And equally crucially to see this simply in terms of class is problematic too:

But the association between education and the voting results is stronger than the association between social or occupational class and the results. This is still true after taking the age of the local population into account.

And it is possible to see race as partly indicative:

Ealing and Hounslow are neighbouring multi-ethnic boroughs in the west of London with large Asian populations, where – in contrast to the national picture – non-white ethnicity was associated with voting Leave, particularly in Ealing. Both boroughs shared a varied internal pattern of prosperous largely white areas voting strongly Remain, poorer largely white areas preferring Leave, and the Asian areas tending to be more evenly split.

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Comments»

1. shea - February 9, 2017

that roaming thing on the phones used to be a bit of a bollox up around the border. Think it was an issue for locals in a few elections.

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GW - February 9, 2017

And an absolute PITA for (forced) emigrants visiting both parts of Ireland.

Unfortunately it looks like it will continue to be so in NI and in parts of the border.

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2. benmadigan - February 9, 2017

apart from roaming charges – UK holidaymakers in the EU will no longer have the benefits of reciprocal Health Services so they will have to buy temporary health travel insurance to cover accidents, illnesses etc. Nice big windfall for Insurance companies!!!

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3. Phil - February 9, 2017

I was furious about the way that story interpreted the “educational level” data – maybe it’s because less educated people tend to be lower-skilled, maybe it’s because they’re more likely to buy into culture-war stories, who knows? Not featured: the possibility that people with higher levels of education may tend* to be educated to a higher level – wider frame of reference, more comfortable with complex explanations, greater tolerance of challenges to their initial assumptions… Put it this way, if that tendency *didn’t* exist, higher education would be failing to do what it’s supposed to. But the BBC fought shy of making this obvious point, presumably because it would sound ‘elitist’.

*This is a tendency, not a universal law – some self-taught people are formidably bright and plenty of graduates are dolts. (Although not from my university, obviously.)

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4. makedoanmend - February 10, 2017

[Not saying the post or even the quotes are implying what follows…]

Correlation* has nothing to do with causation. 0, nil, nada – nothing. You can have 80% correlation between the independent and dependent variable and 0% causation induced by the measured variable.

Correlation is a factor one can consider in anaylsis (as done above), but it proves nothing. When a sytem is very complex with multiple inputs and feedback loops and yadda…yadda…yadda…proving cause is difficult.

If one devises a probability and statistical model, it is only good when it can be used to realiably to predict outcomes. Correlation may give you some clues to formulate new models, but even this is a tenditious exercise requiring the utmost caution and application.

Given that a particular referendum occurs infrequently (usually only once) and is embedded in just one time event and within a particular socio-economic context, trying to extrapolate why any one person or randomly-identified group voted as they did reveals nothing about how they may have voted a year earlier and certainly nothing about how they would vote on the very same issue 5-10 years from now.

I remember reading about the referendum from a very savvy poster who polled his extended family members and was just astounded about how wrong he was about how they would vote. His expectations were turned upside down, and the reasons they gave for voting in a particular manner were far from what he’d have considered rational given what he knew about them – or how they tourtured rationality in such convulated ways to arrive at their decisions.

And how many people, not trusting anything or anyone anymore, say one thing in public and do another in private?

*associated is often an implied “code” word for correlation in MSM

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5. FergusD - February 10, 2017

RE: the above from makedoandmend, agreed, and wouldn’t there be a correlation between age and education level? In the UK now about 45% attend higher education, when I was at uni in the early 70s it was about 10-15% so much higher proportion of those over 60 will lack higher education than those in younger age groups. Doesn’t this confound the analysis as we know there is an age correlation? Don’t you have to remove the age factor to see if educational level still correlates with Remain aftrer allowing for age? HAs that been done? Even if education still correlates the correlation may be much weaker.

Let’s not forget that the majority of Tory voters (58%) voted Leave, all those Daily Mail/Express readers in the shires. Winning sections of the pissed off but largely apolitical working class won Leave the referendum, but as a top up to the Tory vote. Bit like Trump.

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