Are We heading for an election ? February 10, 2017
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.trackback
Yesterday morning an election didn’t seem possible but so much has happened since around the Garda Commissioner , Maurice McCabe, Tusla, various Ministers and there’s probably something new emerging at the moment.
Michael Cliffords piece in The Irish Examiner laid out everything that we knew this morning (Friday Morning). Things have escalated somewhat since…..
So what happens now? Will we see Ministers , The Garda Commissioner or someone else resigning?
Will FF pull the plug? Will some of the Indos pull the plug in an effort to save their seats?
It’s fairly plain that this Government are plodding along and doing little or nothing as they are constrained slightly by “New Politics”.
The danger for FF and to a lesser extent Labour is that it becomes an election over standards in public office or Whistleblowers and God knows what could come out against all the parties that have been in Government in the past 10 years.
It’s going to be an eventful couple of days.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
It’s suddenly got very very volatile. No question about it.
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No, Zappone has already said that she didn’t thinks discussion re TORs were over :/, other minsiter might be a little pissed off at the vagueness of her first statement but she corrected it now and she take some heat Monday, but there is no reason to think they will be an election. The commisioner got off very lightly on the news today, she may still have to step aside. Its confusing not volatile.
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Couldn’t come at a worse time for Labour (biggest single losers, if AK’s projections for the last couple of polls are accurate). I.E., 1 seat.
No wonder Howlin’s putting on a show, election footing.
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Howlin’s comments distracted people from reading the Commission TOR which could be read to include TULSA as Fitzgerald asserts http://justice.ie/en/JELR/Pages/Press-releases-Garda-and-policing and Zappone must have presumed.
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I tend not to think so (in terms of whether there will be another election) there have been any number of things which have seemed to bring this government to the edge but they’ve danced back every time. As I heard someone say recently you would have to overestimate the levels of accountably and underestimate the levels of brazenness at the top to believe the government will face immediate consequences for this unless something is proved against Fine Gael specifically. But as always it comes down not to morality or ideology but to what Fianna Fail will do and I just bet they won’t have the guts to use this as their excuse to bring the down the government for fear it will backfire. I guess there some chance it could fall apart within over the conflict between Zappone and FG but as we’ve all heard they have people to replace anyone who leaves the government and I feel like Zappone is likely to remain quiescent anyway.
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I think you’re right re FF not having the stomach to use this.
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Any possibility that, if the governments falls apart, FF might, in the national interest of course, decide to go into coalition with the enemy?
Easy case to make with brexit looming.
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I don’t think they will – they’ll see it as absolutely crucial to keep water between them.
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Guess so. It’s funny even in this hyper-connected world, it’s impossible to truly know how something like this is playing out if you’re not actually there.
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Finally caught up a bit by listening to the Claire Byrne show online. A truly frightening vista, if the prima facie aspect turns out to be the case.
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It is genuinely beyond belief (in a sense). And given the age we live in that’s something.
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I grew increasingly frustrated listening to the news yesterday, as the focus turned more and more to the political manoeuvres and statement-tennis. If I have this right, we not only have credible allegations of pretty awful garda malpractice here, but also real questions over Tusla.
Tulsa have extraordinary power. They can quite literally make or break a family. They can do so with little judicial oversight. And they can do so on the basis of evidence that would not convict anybody in court. I think most people accept that they should have such powers because of the sometimes awful problems that develop in families.
Given the world we live in, even having a Tesla investigation attached to your name can bring shame, and ignominy. I don’t think they’re unaware of that, and that brings more power to them again.
If their powers have been deliberately misused, it is pretty chilling stuff. That devalues all of their work, and carries with it a real injustice to any victims of abuse as well as to the McCabes.
The fact that the focus turned to Zappone yesterday seems bizarre to me in that context. But it probably reflects that we have more political journalists than we need, and less journalists doing anything else.
Though Mick Clifford seems an honourable exception in this instance.
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Political games are being played with the Maurice McCabe controversy and Tusla revelations. Fianna Fail’s John McGuinness has, contrary to FF’s position, called for Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan to “stand aside” and suggested a criminal investigation. This is the ‘outspoken’ deputy who Micheál Martin removed from the frontbench …. ahem.
There is real disgust in the public mind about the shocking treatment of McCabe. And there is a hunger for answers to so many questions: from where did the ‘cut and paste’ error arise, who was told what, who disseminated information to whom, what action followed this and so on.
My guess is that McGuinness has wedged open the door for more pressure on O’Sullivan and for the ‘smear campaign’ commission inquiry to cover Tusla. I think Martin will baulk at the prospect for an election. The Cabinet Independents will use the excuse of respecting ‘confidentiality’ and awaiting the outcome of investigations to sit tight.
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“The Cabinet Independents will use the excuse of respecting ‘confidentiality’ and awaiting the outcome of investigations to sit tight.”
This translates as, I really love my official Merc.
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Does Sinn Fein calling on Fianna Fail to withdraw its support for the government make an election more likely or less likely?
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Sinn Fein are the ony ones that are calling for election http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/gerry-adams-call-for-general-election-hse-apologises-unreservedly-to-mccabe-for-administrative-error-776593.html yesterday even after Zappone said she hadn’t told Fitzgerald about the error in the TULSA file, a number of SF’s rep MLD etc were still saying Fitzgerald mislesd the Dail and should correct herself or resign. IT only matters what FF thinks and FF don’t want to disturb the arrangement of the Gardai, they are busy calling for the people involved to get their jobs back!
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For clarification – SF are not the ‘only ones’ calling for a general election.
The Anti-Austerity Alliance has also stated that an immediate general election needs to be held.
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For clarification were – AAA calling for general election when I made my post?
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But it’s not that FF don’t have the guts to force an election. Not at all. It’s that FF are too canny to force an election now. It’s too soon for them. Their poll numbers are slowly but consistently creeping up. Scandals and cock-ups like the current one will undermine, divide and weaken the government – and reduce their public support. So FF will just wait and snipe and also look pained and propose ‘sensible’ policies and approaches – all designed to convince voters to put them back in. And it will work.
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This story goes back a long way though; no guarantee that FF people will escape being tarnished. By my calculation, 109 out of 158 deputies are members of parties that have been in government at some point in the last 11 years….
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Only a few years since FF’s ard-fheis gave Paul Williams a standing ovation for saying that Mick Wallace and Ming Flanagan were enemies of democracy for publicizing McCabe’s allegations about the Gardai; the same Williams who definitely didn’t mean to give his readers the impression that McCabe was a disgusting paedophile who should be locked up, no sir, not in the slightest.
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That should never be forgotten what both of you say SoS and Ed, but what’s astounding is that it kind of is amongst the public.
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An entirely trivial point, given the issue, but a practice seems to have developed recently of using ‘Minister’ as a title, as in ‘Minister Zappone/Harris/ whoever’ i don’t remember this being the case in the past, when the form would be to give the title of the office and then deputy blah, so; ‘Minister for finance, deputy Ahern’ or the like. Seems to be following the American practice of capitalising and personalising the office, as in ‘Secretary Clinton’ etc.
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B&A poll gives FF an eleven-point lead, so must be sorely tempted now?
https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/830521858277662720
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Enda stumbling badly on This Week. Apparently Fitzgerald not much better on telly earlier.
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My thoughts too, son….Zappone goes off to meet McCabe on Tuesday, tells Enda, she’s seeing him in a personal capacity..but Enda is told nothing about the contents of the meeting??! Just two private citizens talking about a meeting with another private citizen..Enda is not Taoiseach anymore in this parallel universe!!
How many of us have stories to tell about the boys in blue? Maybe, this is what’s happening here we all know what’s been going on for years but the McCabe story crystallises it.
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On RTE today Fitzgerald was adamant that she knew nothing about the sex allegations / Tusla issues until she watched the programme last Thursday. When queried time and again about why she didn’t ask Zappone for the details of the meeting with the McCabes, she responded: “I was respecting the whistleblower and the integrity of the meeting”.
Clare Daly declared herself “struck dumb”, but cut to the chase when she reminded Fitzgerald that what you know “officially” and what is known for years by key players is pertinent. In sum, she rubbished Fitzgerald’s defence. Daly also made recommendations about what needs to be done to address matters, including widening the terms of reference to embrace other whistleblowers, criminal investigation and GSOC reform.
When asked again today if Kenny knew about the details of Zappone’s McCabe meeting, he replied “No, as she was meeting him in a private capacity”. When asked about the prospects for a criminal investigation now, Kenny said, “I’m not ruling it out either.” Somebody is running scared.
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Sounds like Deputy Daly is doing what she was elected to do.
More power to her and people like her.
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