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Probably best to put away the posters… February 14, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…for the moment. If Kenny can fend off questions about ‘giving the wrong information about his contacts with Minister for Children Katherine Zappone’ he will likely be fine. Embarrassing but vastly less so than the spectacle opening up ahead if he tried to brazen it out. Moreover from the moment a public tribunal was announced it seemed clear that the Government was comfortable with the process as is – that stories, as it were were straight, etc.

Pat Leahy has it just about right when he writes in the IT:

The currency of political scandal is the offering of heads. Decapitation is cathartic for everyone – politicians, media, public. But if neither of these two powerful women was offering their heads on a plate, then a bigger, more powerful one was not on the menu either.
The Taoiseach will not be resigning either. Nobody who matters to the maintenance of the Government – Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, the Independents – wants to cause a general election. Nobody is ready for it. Nobody has the money for it. Nobody has the stomach for it. But the events of the last week have been notice enough that this government lives increasingly precariously.

That is the size of it. There’s no appetite, let alone enthusiasm, for a change of government. I’d go further. I have sensed from talking to a wide range of people involved in Irish politics a remarkable weariness this last six to eight months. I do not know precisely why. Is it that Brexit and even Trump loom so large that they have sucked up some of the space? Is it the manner in which the government has attempted to park issues? The palpable unwillingness of FF to enter government at this point? Or is it the cumulative effect of a decade of huge effort, particularly on the part of the left(s) that has seen some progress but no real sight of anything that might be termed a complete win.

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1. dublinstreams - February 14, 2017

the lefties are calling for election…

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WorldbyStorm - February 14, 2017

Surely. But unless FF decide to go for it ain’t nothing going to happen.

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2. sonofstan - February 14, 2017

And meanwhile nothing gets done. Even with all the caveats about the ‘recovery’ this is exactly the time when a government should be investing, modernising and building. Not just sitting there. And i wonder if the FF strategy of waiting a year or so and the crown will fall onto the head might be tempting fate a little?

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WorldbyStorm - February 14, 2017

Yep. I wonder if they’ll just cut and run for it. I guess if Kenny begins to look like he’s about to go they might just.

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Dermot O Connor - February 14, 2017

They make look back on this a year from now, when they’re facing King Leo the Calm, with his +6% bounce and eerily soothing voice (on loan from Morgan Freeman) and rue the day.

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WorldbyStorm - February 15, 2017

+1

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3. CL - February 15, 2017

“Yesterday, political commentators wondered if the Government could withstand this controversy. A better question is, why should it?
Why, given everything we have learned in the past week, should this Government be maintained in office?
The only answer appears to be, because Fianna Fáil is not ready for an election…
As it stands, the Taoiseach, the Tánaiste and the Children’s Minister all now stand accused of mishandling and exacerbating this escalating crisis.
Having demonstrated nothing but ineptitude to date, should they really be left in office to clean up their own mess?”-Colette Browne.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/mishandling-of-the-whistleblower-row-shows-coalition-no-longer-fit-for-office-35449538.html

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Seedot - February 15, 2017

This was laid bare by Billy Kelleher on Morning Ireland today. The reason they would support the government – there is no prospect for a stable government out of an election. So confidence is determined by FF poll numbers and ability to win enough to govern, nothing else.

But FF will be damaged by how tightly they are bound when Kennys shoddiness and incoherence has to be admitted by everybody.

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4. irishelectionliterature - February 15, 2017

Ross and the gang may be getting cold feet…. It may well be the best opportunity to leave government and save their seats. Government won’t last long anyway, so they leave on their terms and possibly show FF up whilst doing so.
FF seem to be somehow trying to play some game that doesn’t associate themselves with the Government, which at the minute is backfiring. They just don’t want to be the ones causing an election.

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dublinstreams - February 15, 2017

don’t think the Inds want to be blamed for collapsing government just as much as FF, for some it would feed too much into the negative Indo narrative, its not quite walk away in disgust time yet, there much confusion and non-communication and some imaginary communication but more might come out about Kenny’s knowledge of this and then they might have to call it.

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6to5against - February 15, 2017

I think they might look for Kenny’s head before walking? Allows them to look effective without losing power.
Could Kenny say no? Leading to an election fought on the basis of protecting Kenny’s already doomed leadership.

And if the Indo’s laid down the line on this, wouldn’t they get at least tacit backing from many in FG.

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6to5against - February 15, 2017

But on that topic, are Varadkar and Coveney the only real contenders? Surely Bruton still has his fans. And I suspect Paschal OD sees himself as a leader.

I suppose I’m asking in the wrong place, but if there is anybody around who knows what’s happening with the grassroots, it would be interesting to hear.

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dublinstreams - February 15, 2017

a FG councillor Brian Murphy was on Liveline yesterday calling for Kenny to go now mainly because he’s been around too long, he said he would support Bruton as new leader.

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irishelectionliterature - February 15, 2017

I had thought Fitzgerald may have been a Temporary compromise candidate but thats gone. Richard Bruton is a busted flush, so its Varadkar, Coveney , O’Donohue or Regina Doherty.
Its an Electoral college. 65% for TDs/Sens/MEPs, 25% party members, 10% Councillors. Presume Varadkar and Coveney are favourites .

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dublinstreams - February 15, 2017

the thing Im not convinced of is that a change of FG leaders means an election, what with the polls as they are, what message would FG go to the country with? the new leader will have to reaffirm agreement with Martin..

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5. 6to5against - February 15, 2017

The Indo is certainly pushing the line that its down to Leo and Simon. But I really wonder how well Leo goes down around the country. He has been tamed to an extent, but he is very right wing and has no obvious connection to the rural heartlands. And Simon is so boring I wonder can he even listen to himself as he stumbles through long, loooong sentences that… say….. sort-of…….nothing.

I wonder to what extent their joint favourites tag is a creation of political journalists.

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dublinstreams - February 15, 2017

do we fear Heritage Foundation Leo or Bilderberg Coveney?

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6. Joe - February 15, 2017

Don’t put the posters too far away though, I’d say. Another fooking election before the summer is a fair bet.

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7. sonofstan - February 16, 2017

57-52 with 44 abstentions. Leo looking very taoiseach-y, last to speak with Simon C. looking up adoringly. Brown-Blair pact?

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sonofstan - February 16, 2017

And the way business speak is infecting everything: Patrick O’Donavan, baiting Adams referred to SF’s ‘partner organisation’. no doubt there were synergies involved, across the piste.

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CL - February 16, 2017

Gerry Adams said ” that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were responsible for “a culture of insiderism, strokes, cronyism, corruption, graft, cute hoorism, brown envelopes, digouts and whatever you’re having yourself’…

Paul Murphy ” this week… there was a glimpse of “the dark, rotten, sinister underbelly of the Irish State, with the black propaganda that has been alleged to come from the top of An Garda Síochána’’…

Eamon Ryan said that, historically, Fine Gael have been too close to An Garda Síochána.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-wins-confidence-motion-by-five-votes-1.2977019

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