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New Red C / Sunday Business Post Poll February 25, 2017

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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How they stand:

Fianna Fáil: 26 per cent (-1)

Fine Gael: 24 per cent (n/c)

Sinn Féin: 19 per cent (+5)

Independents: 10 per cent (-4)

AAA-PBP: 6 per cent (+2)

Green Party: 4 per cent (n/c)

Labour: 4 per cent (-1)

Independent Alliance: 3 per cent (n/c)

Social Democrats: 3 per cent (-1)

Renua: 1 per cent (n/c)

I wonder did Sinn Feins vote of confidence in the Government over the McCabe affair help them. FF down too (abliet in the margin of error). I wonder did FF not really doing anything over McCabe , not even getting a Ministerial head backfire on them slightly. AAAPBP back up ahead of Labour again.

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1. paulculloty82 - February 25, 2017

Are we getting to the point where the smaller left parties need to discuss a formal alliance to gain electoral traction, similar to Portugal and Spain? Greens and SDs could work together, but presumably not with Howlin, and AAA-PBP seem at odds with all three.

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Jolly Red Giant - February 26, 2017

Come on Paul – the Greens were cheerleaders for austerity when I government with FF – and one of the prime movers of water charges under the nonsensical guise of ‘water preservation’.

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2. Dermot O Connor - February 25, 2017

Lab at parity with Greens!

Even on 4, Greens not likely to break the 2 seat barrier, but Lab could fall to 2 or 1 on that poll. Very real chance they’ll be smaller than Rabbitte’s ‘micro parties of the left’.

Whither the Unions then?

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3. Enzo - February 25, 2017

Do they just ask Lucinda every month to get that 1% for Renua?

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Dermot O Connor - February 26, 2017

Renua’s new leader is Chairman MOE

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irishelectionliterature - February 26, 2017

It’s only the public funding that Renua got that is keeping them going. Another election and they will be truly gone.

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4. lamentreat - February 26, 2017

Tough question, I know, but any idea of how that might roughly translate into seats?

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 26, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh has done his usual projections here: https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/02/02/happy-new-year-for-fianna-fail-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-business-post-red-c-opion-poll-29th-january-2017/

With the following (presumably Labour omitted in error, and not as an indication of their current relevance…):

Fianna Fail 50, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 34, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 7, Social Democrats 3,Green Party 2, Independents 18.

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Paddy Healy - February 26, 2017

It is far easier to omit Laour “in error” in this poll (The numbers add up to the full 158 seats). Adrian Kavanagh allocated Laour 2 seats on the basis of another recent poll in which Labour scored 6%!!!!

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 26, 2017

Oops – didn’t think to check the total! I was assuming Labour would be projected for 1 or 2 as per similar polls.

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CMK - February 26, 2017

What’s interesting in Kavangh’s analysis of the percentage support for the parties by constituency is that in only one Dublin constituency (Dun Laoghaire) does combined FF/FG support exceed 50%. Next highest, Fingal at 45% (home to the richest town in Ireland, Malahide) down to the sensible denizens of Dublin Central where combined support is 23% which means no Dáil seat for either.

In 19 of the 40 constituencies their combined support is below 50% meaning that any ‘surge’ in Fianna Fáil’s support is overwhelmingly rural in nature. In a further 11 constituencies their support in at 60% of less.

That’s positive in my view. Both FG and FF are relying on huge support in some rural constituencies to buoy modest support in Dublin and areas such as Louth.

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5. Paddy Healy - February 26, 2017

RED C POLL Feb 26 2017
%
FF 26
FG 24
SF 19
IND 10
AAA-PBP 6 6 TDs
Green 4 2 TDs
Lab 4 7 Tds
SD 3 2 TDs
Ind Alliance 3 6 TDs
Renua 1 0 TDs

Perhaps, the most striking result of this Red C poll is the fact that Labour languishes at 4% in RED C, following B&A Feb 19, Labour Party 6%; Millward Brown Feb 19, Lab 6%.
By far the biggest trade union in Ireland, SIPTU, is affiliated to this party. SIPTU condoned the enactment by Burton/Howlin of FEMPI anti-union laws, cuts in means-tested heating allowances and worsening of supports for lone parents.
UNITE disaffiliated from the Labour Party in this period.
We must not forget the responsibility of the current Siptu leadership. They must not be allowed to wash their hands of this debacle while pretending to be a new broom!
Remember the David Begg and Dick Spring “renewal” operation!

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Paddy Healy - February 26, 2017

The seats mentioned here are seats currently held by minor parties, including Labour in the current Dáil

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6. Paddy Healy - February 26, 2017

RATS AND SINKING SHIPS – – —

Two senior former Tipp Labour Party members join FF-THE TIPPERARY STAR (THURLES)
“The Labour Party in North Tipperary has suffered the second of two high profile losses with the defection of the party’s former Munster regional organiser, Adrian Gleeson, to Fianna Fail.
The move will be a particularly hard one for Labour to swallow, and especially for Deputy Alan Kelly, as Mr Gleeson is his cousin and is credited with getting another cousin, Cllr Fiona Bonfield, elected to the council in 2014 at the first time of asking.
Mr Gleeson, from Newport, is the second high ranking Labour member to leave the party in the past six months, with former Nenagh Mayor Sandra Farrell joining the same party late last year.
Mr Gleeson told the Tipperary Star that he came from a big Fianna Fail family and that after the last election he felt there was no drive in Labour locally.”

Any chance Alan Kelly and Howlin/Burton might follow?

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