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And the latest projections on foot of the latest poll March 2, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Aengus Millen drew attention in comments to Adrian Kavanagh’s latest poll projections – all usual caveats apply. Kavanagh argues that this and other polls seem to suggest a three party system emerging with FG/FF and SF all in the 20s. Well, time will tell. But if SF can sustain its vote…

Meanwhile what about the projections?

The 2nd March Irish Times/Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 29% (down 1% relative to the previous Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll), Fine Gael 28% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 4%), Independents and Others 18% (down 2%) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3%, Social Democrats 1%, Green Party 3%, Independents 10% – Labour Party 4% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 54, Fine Gael 54, Sinn Fein 34, Labour Party 1, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3, Social Democrats 1, Green Party 2, Independents 6.

Not as bad for Labour as his last projection! But consolidation around FG/FF/SF does impact on the smaller parties and Independents. Yet those figures don’t quite add up to 158. By my reckoning they’re only 155. Who and where would the other seats go? On his constituency projections they go to Independents. So Ind 6, GP, 2, SD 1, AAA 3 and LP 1. That’s all of 16 seats. What do people think? Likely, or is incumbency and so on going to add momentum to Ind/Others to retain seats?


1. Dermot O Connor - March 2, 2017

The nightmare scenario for FFG is the 55/55 (or some equal distribution). Man, will that make it hard to keep the supply & demand shenanigans going!

Will they toss a coin to decide who plays the power-bottom?

Cripes, but a disaster is looming for Labour if the new Taoiseach does pull the plug! EVERY poll shows them static or falling. Two diff. polls now showing SF in high teens (and they’re best placed of all parties to make hay off of relatively small poll bumps; low to mid 30s should be very doable for them, push 40 on a good day).


WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2017

You know, I could see FG pulling the plug in the hope they’d get the LP liberal vote, though given how little vote is left for the LP perhaps it doesn’t even matter.


2. Paddy Healy - March 2, 2017

There is an error in the first paragraph of Adrian Kavanaghs Projection which leaves the total at 152 seats
In his “amended seats estimate” table further down , there is a full 158 seats as follows: STATE FF54 FG54 LAB1 SF34
IND 9 Others 6

Even if Laour do better than 1 seat(Howlin) due to personalities, the poll of 4% in the second of two opinion polls in less than aweek is disastrous. Howlin and SIPTU leader Jack O’Connor should resign.
Note that FF+SF are allocated 88 seats. Even if Sinn Féin do not achieve 34, the party should gain a significant number of seats.
Because of the plethora of very different kinds of independents and others available to the electorate there is bound to be considerable confusion. It would be unsafe to draw any inferences from the allocated 9 independent seats and 6 other seats


WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2017

I’d tend to agree. The dynamics though are striking. SF is clearly consolidating.


WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2017

And at a significantly higher level than the LPs standard level across the 90s and early 2000s.


irishelectionliterature - March 2, 2017

SF also have a far broader geographic spread than Labour ever did.


sonofstan - March 2, 2017

but much less transfer friendly – Labour could mop up preferences from everywhere. SF get no help


WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2017

Yes, that’s something that’s struck me recently too SoS. If it’s taken, what, four or so years for FF to be forgiven, how long will it be for the LP, at least by some of its vote? All they need are a couple of per cent. And that two per cent makes all the difference! They must be – ahem – praying that this government goes at least two years.


Aengus Millen - March 3, 2017

True and if Gerry goes sometime this year it could get even better. RTE loves to focus on cosmetics but they could be right when they say that Micheal will look less appealing and his baggage will become more apparent compared with Leo and Mary Lou


3. Aengus Millen - March 3, 2017

Interesting point about the consolidation around FF/FG/SF and how it squeezes out the smaller groups. If it gets rid of do nothing independents like shane ross and whiners like john halligan then fair enough but it seems to be having a negative effect on aaa-pbp too which is too bad especially for the likes of Brid Smith who scraped in ahead of FF but who is probably my favorite currently serving TD


sonofstan - March 3, 2017

Yeah, AK has SF taking two and FF one in Dublin SC, squeezing out both Smith and Collins


4. GW - March 3, 2017

NI Assembly post? Would that be a good idea?


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