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Another poll March 2, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

This one from the IT. Follows the broad trends evident in the most recent RedC/SBP poll. FF stalling, FG largely static, SF markedly up, Inds down somewhat. Note that only SF is outside the MOE.

When people were asked who they would vote for in a general election, party support, when undecided voters were excluded, was: Fine Gael, 28 per cent (up one point compared with the result of the December poll); Fianna Fáil, 29 per cent (down one point); Labour, 4 per cent (down two points); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (up four points) and Independents/Others, 18 per cent (down two points).

And for more detail regarding Inds/Others:

The biggest change since the election has been in support for the Independents and others, which have seen a drop in aggregate support from 30 per cent to 18 per cent today. Support is spread amongst a number of small groups, parties and individual TDs.
The Green Party and the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group are both on 3 per cent nationally, while the Social Democrats are on 1 per cent.
Independents, including groups of Independents, are on aggregate support of 10 per cent, which includes the Independent Alliance (2 per cent) and Independents for Change (2 per cent).

Meanwhile in the same paper Damian Loscher of Ipsos MRBI bemoans the frequency of polls and writes:

Balancing the appetite for more polls with the need for more accurate polls will be a struggle. Science and experience suggest good statistics do not always compensate for poor sampling.

Well, I can’t be alone in thinking there’s an answer to that. Less polls!


1. irishelectionliterature - March 2, 2017

It’s funny , the very time FF are seemingly pushing for an election that nobody wants… they stay static.


dublinstreams - March 2, 2017

FF are pushing for an election?


irishelectionliterature - March 2, 2017

Well Barry Cowen is anyway


dublinstreams - March 2, 2017

its not a negotiation tactic?


2. sonofstan - March 2, 2017

Quick look at the breakdown suggests a growing East/ West split in the country – FG are the biggest party in Dublin and Munster. FF up to 39% in Conn/Ulster


3. Aengus Millen - March 2, 2017

Noticed in the reporting around this poll this morning the rise for SF which has been the main change in the last few polls is only ever mentioned in passing.


WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2017

Yeah, the media seems to continually default to seeing everything in the context of FF/FG. But there’s SF now beginning to nudge up into the 20s which if it is sustained is a huge change.


4. Aengus Millen - March 2, 2017

Another interesting thing is that adrian Kavanagh predicts that FG and FF would both get around 54 seats on these numbers. If that were the case how would they decide who was in government and who did the propping up? Might mike coalition more likely

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