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That last poll, no, the one before yesterday’s poll! March 3, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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In all the acres of coverage about the RedC/SBP poll perhaps one key aspect of the figures on offer was ignored. The MOE on these polls according to RedC on its site is c.3%. Only two movements within the poll figures exceed that, SF going up 5% to 19% and Independents dropping 4% to 10%. After that all else is 2% or under (AAA-PBP increases 2%, FF, Labour, SDs drop 1% apiece). And while it doesn’t have to be a straight pull of votes from Ind to SF, it is suggestive. I’ve long given up looking at specific events to account for these shifts. The SBP argues that perhaps SF’s stance on a vote of confidence in the government over the McCabe controversy. Perhaps so, but then how to account for other recent polls?

I’m still inclined to the view that matters are stuck within broad bands of support and the parties will rise or fall within them but rarely above or below them. This – of course – spells terrible news for FF and FG because it suggests that gaining significant numbers (at least for the former) may still be a considerable task for them. Though if SF made up the numbers…

Mind you Adrian Kavanagh’s projection on foot of the most recent SBP poll must be terrifying for Labour. No seats (and perhaps just one or two on the day).

The 29th January 2017 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27% (up 3% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Fine Gael 24% (down 1%), Independents and Others 30% (NC) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 4%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 4%, Renua 1%, Independents 14%, Independent Alliance 3% – Sinn Fein 14% (down 2%), Labour Party 5% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 56, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 24, Labour Party 1, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 5, Social Democrats 4, Green Party 4, Independents 21.

80 is, as always the key figure. And look there, FF and SF would have, just 80 seats. Nice. Of course who knows what will happen in the next while before an election. But one thing seems clear – there remains no appetite, none at all, for one this side of the Summer. For a temporary little affair this government – leadership contests not with standing, seems curiously unmoving.

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