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Peak poll – SF ahead of FG. March 11, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Another one, this time from the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes stable. There’s too many of them, to my mind. Anyhow, here’s the results:

The poll shows small gains for the Government with Fine Gael rising one point to 22% and the Independent Alliance also gaining a point to stand at 6%.

However, the biggest moves are on the opposition benches where Sinn Féin rose four points to 23% and overtakes Fine Gael in second place.

Fianna Fáil remains in top spot on 28% but drops four points compared to last month’s poll.

And:

The non-aligned Independents are unchanged on 8% while the Labour Party is also unchanged on 6%.

The group surveyed in the poll as AAA-PBP, but who are now named Solidarity-PBP, are down one point to stand at 2%.

The Social Democrats and the Workers’ Party are both at 1%. The Green Party is on 2% support.

With an MOE of 3.3% a lot of the movement, such as it is, is well within it. But SF are genuinely moving – and FG won’t be happy. I await with interest Adrian Kavanagh’s latest projection.

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1. Paddy Healy - March 11, 2017

The fact that Sinn Fein is around the same as FG given the MoE is a huge development. This is particularly so since the SF score has een edging upward in the other most recent polls. Lehane, the RTE commentator, failed to mention the surge to SF in the recent election in the six counties as a probable factor in this development.
I would e very surprised if there wasn’t a significant movement from FF and others to SF in counties near the border.

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Jemmyhope - March 12, 2017

The increase in de SF support is strongest in Dublin..So there’s a surprise for you Paddy.

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Paddy Healy - March 13, 2017

It is not at all a surprise to me that that is what the poll should show. I contributed to support for repulicanism in Dublin in modern times as chief strike organiser for the H-block prisoners and as a H-block candidate. In the poll the highest scores for SF are in Dublin and Leinster as it has been for some time. These polls do not reveal the support for SF in border counties where SF has the highest density of TDs. This is because Donegal and Cavan/Monaghan are drowned in Connaught-Ulster, with Connaught showing the lowest support for Sinn Fein. Louth where SF has two TDs is drowned in Leinster where Sinn Féin has the highest score. The margin of error in regional polls is at least 6% due to the small sample size.
It would be necessary to have figures for each county to compute SF support in border counties

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Paddy Healy - March 13, 2017

Just to illustrate the above: The raw score for SF in Connaught/Ulster went down from 16 to 14% from Feruary to March 2017! But the sample size was 164 giving a margin of error of almost 8%
The raw scorefor SF in Dublin rose from 16 to 20%. The sample size was 271 giving a margin of error of 6% which is more than the increase!
Leinster which had the highest score at 23% in February still has the highest score at 22% in March. The margin of error is slightly higher than that for Dublin because the sample size for Leinster was slightly lower than that for Dublin.
Regional figures in national opinion polls of approximately 1000 samples are extremely unreliable because of the very high margin of error.

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2. Jim Monaghan - March 12, 2017

The crunch, predicted by Paddy, is being open to coalition. Will SF be the new Labour or Clann na Phoblachta ? Settling for patronage and clientilism.

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shea - March 12, 2017

they said a few weeks ago that they want into government.

Guessing jammy provo luck will strike, no one will do a deal with them and they keep climbing.

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3. roddy - March 13, 2017

“Jammy provo luck” never stops! We’re interviewing ex blanketmen for the post of president of Ireland as we speak.! A complicated points system with bonuses for years on the blanket and attempted / successful escapes has been devised! The Aras is being relocatedto the bogside and renamed McGuinness house.Roll on 2025!

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4. GW - March 13, 2017

Sorry to slip this in here but I couldn’t find What you want so Say.

Polls related and about an election that’s about to happen.

The real story in the Dutch election is not the meeja’s obsession – Gert Wilderbeest & the PVV – but the growth of Green Left and the solid vote for the Socialist Party.

For what polls are worth Green Left have increased their vote five-fold, and the Socialist Party is holding it’s ground. Giving left parties 35 seats – half what’s needed to form a government.

What’s happened is that support for the former Social Democrats (PvdA) is down to a quarter of what it was at the last election, due to that parties participation in an Austerian ‘Grand Coalition’.

Now that is relevant to SF’s decisions regarding coalition. Go into an a pro-austerity government in RoI and they will see their support evaporate.

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GW - March 13, 2017

party’s

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