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That French election April 4, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

A clear polling dynamic taking root, at least so far…

Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck on the first round. Mélenchon has gained 5%, apparently from the SP. Fillon is becalmed. So, in total it is Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Mélenchon and Hamon who are commanding support in double digits and all others are really not at the races. Notably Lutte Ouvrière are hardly registering.

The graphical summary is useful too. Macron staggered up into joint first place across the last three months. As he did so Fillon fell, Hamon likewise and Mélenchon has rallied – clearly pulling support from the SP.

So. First round is 23rd of April. And


1. GW - April 4, 2017

The graph to watch is the one for the second round. Here there’s a good deal of uncertainty and I normally factor in perhaps a possible additional 10 percentage points for Le Pen because fascist-spectrum voters get out and vote and le Pen attracts former non-voters or people who have given up voting for more than a decade.

Some models based on relative voter turnout give a considerably closer prediction for the second round.

With Macron the possibility of a Le Pen win is relatively remote – but then who trusts opinion polls any more.

Had Fillon got into the second round the fact that people on the left couldn’t vote for him and the factor above then I’d be very wary about predicting a defeat for Le Pen.

Brexit & Trump seem to have boosted neither Le Pen or the AfD’s prospects, contrary to the hopes of the Brexiteers. I would cautiously argue the reverse has happened. Both parties have eased off on the anti-EU rhetoric for now.

The number of reportedly undecideds remains very high however.

Macron is running his campaign solely with volunteers, having no party infrastructure behind him. I don’t know whether that’s a plus of minus for his prospects.


Alibaba - April 4, 2017

‘Most observers doubt Le Pen can win more than 50% of the second-round vote. But there are caveats. Her support is more solid: in surveys, Le Pen’s voters mostly say they are certain to support their chosen candidate; Macron’s tend not to be so sure.

There is no precedent for a Macron victory: no centrist has ever occupied the Elysée palace, nor any candidate running without the political and logistical backing of one of the traditional left or rightwing parties.’

Perhaps we live in a time when popular pressure from the undecideds, the demoralised or the youth can force political change.



GW - April 4, 2017

I do feel the panic the meeja is trying to conjure up about Le Pen’s chances is a little overdone.

But I called both Trump and Brexit wrong, so what do I know?

One things for sure – the Socialist party seems to be going the way of Pasok and the Irish Labour party.


Alibaba - April 4, 2017

I didn’t express myself adequately because I think you are calling it right.


2. Jolly Red Giant - April 4, 2017

Apparently an opinion poll over the weekend had the following

Macron (EM-*): 25%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 24%
Mélenchon (FG-LEFT): 20%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 16%


Liberius - April 4, 2017

That’s from a firm called La Terrain, I’ve been following french polls for some time (several years) and never heard of them, and can’t find other polls they’ve done. In short, treat with extreme caution.



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