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A slightly more optimistic picture of an eventual Brexit deal on Ireland April 7, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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…from Michael McDowell. He argues in the SBP that:

As I have written here before, the CTA is not a huge or difficult issue. Britain simply does not propose any imposition of visa-based travel for EU citizens.

Its post-Brexit ‘border’ for EU citizens as I predicted will be based on post-arrival restrictions on remaining in Britain based on barriers in terms of access to welfare, housing, healthcare, social welfare, education and public services, such as permits and driving licenses for future would-be EU citizen immigrants.

And:

Organizing a formal system of over-staying EU visitors would be very complex and would probably entail the introduction of landing cards; that seems far too difficult o contemplate.

So our ‘mini-Schengen’ on these islands will probably continue indefinitely. Nothing very different will happen at our borders.

And he continues:

As far as personal travel and establishment within these islands is concerned there will be no noticeable change.

Does he include the border here? It’s difficult to tell because he immediately goes on to discuss trade restrictions and how it is necessary to have a negotiated free trade relationship with the EU… ‘the softer the border as far as experts and imports of goods between Britain and Ireland will be’.

And he asks if monitoring trans-Ireland movement in goods would require monitoring and if so could that be done on a desktop basis?

So some movement forward but still a lot of detail to be worked out.

Interestingly given his fears about moves towards a ‘federal’ EU he writes on foot of the decision this last week or so about a two-speed EU, that ‘if some member states are really serious about enchanted political, defence and final integration (which I very much doubt), I say let them go ahead.’

He hasn’t expressed that doubt previously that I recall. I’ve always been dubious. I’m against a federal EU and think it near unattainable at any point in the medium to quite long term. Still he is right that that is something that should be pushed back strongly against.

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