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Latest poll April 15, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As noted by SoS, a Sunday Times/B&A poll out this evening:

Fine Gael are up 7% to 29%.

There is no change for Fianna Fáil at 28% while Sinn Féin are down five points to 18%.

Labour are down one point to 5% as is the Independent Alliance.

And…the Green Party 2%, Solidarity 3% (inc 1% for the SP), 2% SDs and 10% Inds. Thoughts?

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1. Aengus Millen - April 15, 2017

Hopefully this is an outlier but it’s throughly depressing. The government has had a horrible year so far so these numbers are inexplicable. Why is SF down, no one has accuses a member of murder recently? it’s all very bad. I never thought I would pine for the days when FF was ahead of FG. The left really needs to get it’s act together and coordinate its messaging. I was reminded of the debates around the citizens assembly recently. The greens, SF, and the AAA-PBP each offered amendments around things most of the left agrees on and yet all the parties voted against the amendments of the other parties. It’s a canard that everyone hates but these parties have to show that they can govern together.

https://www.kildarestreet.com/debates/?id=2016-07-13a.472

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Dermot O Connor - April 16, 2017

The Enda Kenny washington psyop no doubt behind the boost. A bit of media manip, queue the National Anthem of the bourgeoisie “Sure aren’t we a great little country, sure we are a great little country”.

Disgusting and depressing.

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WorldbyStorm - April 16, 2017

Yep

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WorldbyStorm - April 16, 2017

And even then how feasible is the idea of those parties working together?

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dublinstreams - April 16, 2017

The Greens proposed to look at climate change and it was agreed by all, so you are wrong there. Votes can be hard to read in the Dail because they are often flipped around but Clare Daly’s motion was supported by a range of the left as was Sinn Fein’s Although I question here premise that ICCL wanted politicians involved becuase it wasn’t in their blueprint http://hearourvoices.ie/the-blueprint SF didn’t support either of AAA-PBP’s amendments so they weren’t even put to vote but the parts dealing with eight amendment weren’t going to be changed I don’t why you expect everyone to agree on such fundamental issues just of outwards appearances sake.

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Aengus Millen - April 16, 2017

The Green’s motion passed with SF and AAA-PBP opposing.

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dublinstreams - April 16, 2017

Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party)

I move amendment No. 1:

To insert the following after “the manner in which referenda are held”:“(v) how the State can make Ireland a leader in tackling climate change;”

Amendment put and declared carried.

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Aengus Millen - April 17, 2017

Totally right I was looking at the passage of the whole bill sorry about that.

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2. Paddy Healy - April 16, 2017

I can’t find raw poll in Sunday Times or on B&A website
There was 23% undecided in March 11 poll
The MOE is 3.3% for 95% CERTAINTY. That means that there is a finite probability that any poll could be an “outlier”

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dublinstreams - April 16, 2017

full details here now http://banda.ie/sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-opinion-poll-april-2017/ Why are the polling Socalist Party they didn’t in their last poll http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-March-Report-2017.pdf They list Solidarity-People before Profit and with an unseacrchable Irish Oifiguil I havnt seen that AAA-PBP has applied to change its name yet.

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3. Paddy Healy - April 17, 2017

Based on a 3 month Rolling Average of B&A figures
Since General Election 2016, FF up 5.7%, FG down 2.3%, Labour down 2.1%, Sinn Féin up 9%, Others down 10.3%
Detailed Figures http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

Behaviour and Attitudes provides the actual polling figures in its tables including undecideds
B&A makes a number of adjustments in addition to eliminating undecideds to reach a final poll figure for each party. I believe that these adjustments may not be appropriate in a rapidly changing and confusing political situation. I have therefor taken the raw polling figures(core) and simply eliminated the undecideds.
A poll of around 1000 people has a margin of error of 3% for 95% certainty. This means that a particular poll may have a bigger margin of error than 3%. It may be an “outlier”
Accordingly I will be doing a 3 month rolling average. Such an approach will fail to detect sharp changes. On the other hand, it will reduce the effect of “outliers” which can mislead

B&A April 2017
Final Outcome Three Month Rolling Average Gen. Election 2016 in Brackets
FF FG Lab SF Other
30.0 (24.3) 22.8 (25.1) 4.5(6.6) 22.8(13.8) 19.9(30.2)

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4. Paddy Healy - April 17, 2017

The unadjusted figures in the B&A poll published yesterday are
FF28.1 FG 27.3 Lab 4.5 SF 21.3 Others 18.8
This is calculated by simply eliminating the undecideds and recalculating the percentages.
The adjusted figures provided by B&A are
FF 28 FG 29 Lab 5 Sinn Féin 18 Others 20
The main Loser from the adustments is Sinn Féin

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5. ivorthorne - April 17, 2017

Fascinating. Why on earth would support for FG go up and SF go down during such a period? It points, I suspect, to issues with the methodology rather than anything else.

The main points I’d take from recent polling is that FF and FG are quite close and one would edge out the other for the position of largest party based on their performance during the election campaign and vote management.

SF will be the third largest party and while they could be kingmakers, they will decline to do so. Coalition will also be ruled out with a dark horse chance that an arrangement with FF could be made on some sort of Brexit platform.

Labour are not recovering in any significant way while the further left can expect to more or less retain it’s current level of support.

By the looks of things, only FF would really have any chance of significantly improving on its status quo but they are probably happy enough to wait a little longer. If they pull out too soon, FG will return the favour when – as it seems from these figures – their positions are inevitably reversed.

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6. Paddy Healy - May 15, 2017

No Significant Change in May B&A Poll-Labour Drop Below 3% in Core Vote for First Time This Year
Discussion http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
B&A Poll May 14 Margin of Error c. 3%
FF FG Lab SF Other/GR Undecided
Core% 21.7 22.4 2.9 14.9 15.5 22.6
Sinn Féin Core Vote 5 times that of Labour!!!

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