Given the UK election… April 19, 2017Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
Here’s a key point:
As the polls currently stand (and, obviously, there are seven weeks to go) a Conservative majority looks very, very likely. The size of it is a different matter – the twenty-one point lead in the recent YouGov, ICM and ComRes polls would produce a majority in excess of a hundred, a nine point lead like in the Opinium poll at the weekend would only see a small increase in the Tory majority.
But obviously the almost overwhelming certainty is a Tory government one way or another.
And this alone is worth considering. The boundary changes aren’t going to be ready for this election… but these are changes which will benefit the Tories. So the election is actually being played out on an electoral terrain that somewhat favours the BLP.
The boundary changes obviously won’t go ahead in time for the general election. However, it does not mean they won’t happen. The legislation governing the boundary reviews doesn’t say they happen each Parliament, but that they happen each five years. Hence unless the government change the rules to bring them back into line with the election cycle the review will continue to happen, will still report in 2018, but will now first be used in the next general election in 2022. If the election results in an increased Tory majority it probably makes it more likely that the boundary changes will go ahead – getting changes through Parliament always looked slightly dodgy with a small majority.
By the way, any suggestion for sites with useful/robust/even halfway credible seat numbers projections? This from the Mirror isn’t exactly comforting. Though interestingly, or not, the LDs wouldn’t make any gains.