jump to navigation

Given the UK election… April 19, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
trackback

…this from the ever useful UKPollingReport has an overview about the situation and polls. 

Here’s a key point:

 

As the polls currently stand (and, obviously, there are seven weeks to go) a Conservative majority looks very, very likely. The size of it is a different matter – the twenty-one point lead in the recent YouGov, ICM and ComRes polls would produce a majority in excess of a hundred, a nine point lead like in the Opinium poll at the weekend would only see a small increase in the Tory majority.

But obviously the almost overwhelming certainty is a Tory government one way or another.

And this alone is worth considering. The boundary changes aren’t going to be ready for this election… but these are changes which will benefit the Tories. So the election is actually being played out on an electoral terrain that somewhat favours the BLP.

The boundary changes obviously won’t go ahead in time for the general election. However, it does not mean they won’t happen. The legislation governing the boundary reviews doesn’t say they happen each Parliament, but that they happen each five years. Hence unless the government change the rules to bring them back into line with the election cycle the review will continue to happen, will still report in 2018, but will now first be used in the next general election in 2022. If the election results in an increased Tory majority it probably makes it more likely that the boundary changes will go ahead – getting changes through Parliament always looked slightly dodgy with a small majority.

By the way, any suggestion for sites with useful/robust/even halfway credible seat numbers projections? This from the Mirror isn’t exactly comforting.  Though interestingly, or not, the LDs wouldn’t make any gains.

Advertisements

Comments»

1. simonjkyte - April 19, 2017

yeah, Google ‘electoral calculus’

Like

An Cathaoirleach - April 19, 2017

From memory, electoral calculus was very accurate last time. Matt Singh had https://www.ncpolitics.uk, I am not sure if it is still running, but you can follow him @MattSingh_

Liked by 2 people

simonjkyte - April 20, 2017

Nobody was really accurate last time because people did not vote they way they said they would

Like

2. CL - April 19, 2017

“But May’s move isn’t risk free…Polls in the U.K. have a history of inaccurate performance, with average errors that more than double the ones in American presidential elections.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/

Like

3. EWI - April 19, 2017

Run on saving the NHS from the Tories, and re-nationalising the railways. Cash for raising soldiers’ wages, rather than nukes.

Like

4. An Cathaoirleach - April 19, 2017

Looking at the polls, there has been a significant move to Conservatives & UKIP combined, since the last election. At that stage, they obtained 49.5%, polls are consistently showing them at 54/55% now for some months. Substantial extra gains should be possible, particularly if former UKIP voters vote tactically.

Just look at what the SNP did with their share of the vote!

As the Conservatives run a very professional campaign, carefully targeting their resources where it will produce the maximum result in seats, rather than as Labour did last time, increasing their vote in core areas.

Liberals appear more organised, definitely more united & clear on a core issue, the EU. If the polls are underestimating their support, which I believe to be true, the position of the BLP is perhaps worse than the polls look. Lib-Dems are a home for all those who see the EU as the key issue.

Looking at the polls & assuming a marginal improvement in the Con/Ukip share, say 52%, but a split 46/6, LibDems on say 16%, the UKNI parties/PC/SNP 8%, Greens 4%, leaves just 20% for Labour, Monster Raving Loonies etc.

20% of 650 = 130 seats, however assuming a bit of regional concentration, say 150. Lib Dems around 30, UKNI/PC/SNP 80 odd, GP 1, leaves around 390 seats to the Conservatives, a comfortable working majority of around 130, which is in line with the way spreadbetting is going. However, Harry Spencer suggests caution in this blog http://politicalbetting.com

Because 300 plus of those seats will probably have massive majorities, the Conservatives can expect to be around for at least two elections.

Of course this is what happens, when you have a leader is not just an idiot, but an incompetent one.

Like

EWI - April 19, 2017

Of course this is what happens, when you have a leader is not just an idiot, but an incompetent one.

Well, yes, but how are the remaining sane Tories supposed to get rid of her before she does permanent damage to the UK?

Like

An Cathaoirleach - April 20, 2017

The clever General picks the time and place of battle, as Mrs. May has done. Had Corbyn one wit of sense, he would have deprived her of the opportunity, but he failed to do so.

Looking at the YouGov poll, the Conservatives are now clearly above 50% of the vote in England, up from 41% in 2015. (48% in the UK would suggest 52% plus in England) They obtained 319 of 533 or 60% of the seats on that vote. The LP obtained 38.6% of English seats on 31.6% of the vote. As they are now running at close to 20% in England, a drop of one third of their vote, it is hard to see them holding much more than 100 or possibly a few more of those, i.e. a loss of around 50% of their English seats.

It also looks possible for them to snatch a few SNP border seats on anti SNP tactical voting.

Mr. Corbyn can retire happily in the knowledge that he never compromised his principles by making a decision in political office..

Like

Dr. X - April 21, 2017

If the British Labour Party can’t be saved, it should be destroyed.

And no, I’m not being funny.

Like

sonofstan - April 21, 2017

Problem being that there is no tradition since the ’30s of any other left force. Labour and ‘labour values’ are synonymous in England and would be subsumed by right populists completely if the BLP were to disappear.

Like

Dr. X - April 21, 2017

The right populists have already won. Over the coming years, England (as distinct from the UK) is going to resemble the north of Ireland as it was under Stormont.

Like

RosencrantzisDead - April 21, 2017

For all the criticism of Corbyn and the reams of derision, I am hard-pressed to find alternatives proposed by the very, very grounded New Labour types.

What would the strategy be if they got rid of him tomorrow? Apart from point out May is crazy and the Tory manifesto promises that certainty on Brexit by June 2019.

Like

EWI - April 21, 2017

The clever General picks the time and place of battle, as Mrs. May has done.

May’s election looks certainto strengthen the hand of both the SNP and Sinn Féin. Is hurrying the end of the UK really the action of a ‘wise general’? (whatever that’s supposed to be)

Like

5. fergal - April 20, 2017

Let’s see how all of this plays out,hard to be optimistic at this stage. For all those convinced that the Tories are home and dry, here’s another election cliché- there’s many a slip between cup and lip 🙂

Like

An Cathaoirleach - April 20, 2017

Agreed, but funny the slip ups seem more likely from the bearded buffoon. His “Brexit means Brexit” statement today, is one more case in point.

I see his master, Big Len is at it too. His rival has been suspended for ‘bringing union into disrepute’. The show trial to be organised shortly. Stalin & Beria would be proud of him.

Like

Ed - April 21, 2017

Aye, that’s exactly what Stalin and Beria were notorious for – suspending people for gross misconduct after they broke data protection laws. I suppose when Labour suspended that MP for getting in a drunken punch-up in the House of Commons bar a few years ago, that was like the Night of the Long Knives. There’s certainly a buffoon in this conversation but it ain’t Corbyn. There’s a whole world of tedious McCarthyite drivel like this elsewhere in cyberspace – most of us prefer the CLR to be populated by grown-ups, thanks.

Like

RosencrantzisDead - April 21, 2017

This coat-trailing is pretty tiresome, An Cathaoirleach. Can you make a point without trying to be provocative?

Like

6. sonofstan - April 21, 2017

Labour can’t win this election – but they can win the next one, starting now. The key is young people, who by and large have been shafted by their parents’ and grandparents’ generations and are itching for revenge. Brexit was a mistake, university fees are unjust and usurious, unpaid internships should be outlawed, housing is a right, not soemthing you pay 70% of your derisory wage for. Labour doesn’t need the old racists who might vote UKIP – they need replacements and if they can show themselves to be honest and willing to stick it to the tories, they’ll get them. Much as the MSM would like to bury the fact, Corbyn, at least temporarily turned Labour into the biggest party in Europe – and many, many of those who joined are young.

I don’t agree with Dr.X further up; England won’t become NI c1950. At the moment, Brexit looks like the start of something scary, but it may be, like the 1983 referendum here, the last roar of a receding tide.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: