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Another UK Poll April 23, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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This one from Observer/Opinium…

The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.

And:

The poll also shows support growing for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, who are up four points on 11%, and a dramatic fall in backing for Ukip, which is down five points to 9%, from 14% the week before. Backing for the Lib Dems suggests that the party’s clear anti-Brexit strategy is appealing to hardcore Remain voters.

It will be interesting to see if the UKIP poll figures do weaken substantially. Given the dominance of the Tories and a Tory-led Brexit one has to wonder what precisely is the point of a one-note right of right party like UKIP.

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Comments»

1. bjg - April 23, 2017

Sorry: this isn’t quite relevant to your post, but I don’t know where else to put it: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/an-english-foreign-policy-little-england-or-little-britain/

The site is an interesting one anyway.

bjg

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WorldbyStorm - April 23, 2017

That’s grand bjg, a good place to post it…. thanks.

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2. sonofstan - April 23, 2017

I don’t think the tories can lose this, and we may as well get used to it, but they can win badly. Couple of ways; given the vagaries of FPTP, they could increase their vote n the North and not take that many seats, because Labour majorities are big and UKIP will siphon off some of it. They could lose enough S/SW seats to the LDs to clearly spell out that the remainers ‘haven’t gone away’. If they fail to win any more seats in Scotland, it will look like a defeat. If it ends up a dead heat in NI, or even 10-8 to the Nats, then a border poll is firmly on the agenda.

Finally, I suspect May won’t be a great campaigner. Irritating as they all were, the Bullingdon boys had a swagger and a style that appealed to something mysterious in the English character. As, in their different ways did Blair and Thatcher. I suspect, over the course of 8 weeks, she may begin to bore people. And it’s not as if the cabinet is awash with charisma.

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sonofstan - April 23, 2017

And if she bores people, and everyone thinks they will win anyway, then a low turnout will hardly be the resounding mandate.

Plus, if, as has been persuasively argued, she is going to the country, not to deliver a ‘hard brexit’ but to give her scope to go soft, then a lot of voters, who might have thought they were voting for option a) may be disappointed

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3. An Cathaoirleach - April 23, 2017

The New Statesman has handily listed the 50 Labour seats with the smallest pluralities. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/election-2017-50-labour-mps-most-risk-losing-their-seats

You might also be interested in this by Prof Roger Scully on Wales.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/21/the-2017-general-election-some-first-thoughts-and-a-first-seat-projection/

A deal between the Greens & Lib Dems could make the position even worse. Such an arrangement, say giving all of the Bristol & Brighton constituencies to the Greens & they withdrawing their candidates in Lib Dem possibles, would play to the vagaries of the FPTP system & isolate Labour further. Modern parliamentary elections have become more presidential in style & with both the Conservatives & Labour keeping their leaders away from the media, lest they make a mistake.

The two Scottish polls suggest the Conservatives will win nine plus additional seats, as they are seen as the primary pro Union party. In the long-term, this may strengthen the SNP as the BLP disintegrates & Scottish politics becomes purely flag waving.

On a final point, the internal figures are suggesting the BLP is getting around 26-28% of the English vote. This is 3-5% below the vote obtained the last time. Add a serious move of UKIP voters to Conservatives, possibly up to half their vote in 2015, and the pins start to fall very quickly. All of the seats on a NS list fall, plus a fair few more. (Lab – 5, Cons + 7 = swing 12%).

It is very hard to see Labour back with much more than 150-160 seats. Assuming others at 70, Lib Dems 30, that gives the Conservatives 390-400, or a majority of 140-150

To change the scenario you would require, a) Corbyn to suddenly be seen as a credible alternative, or assassinated, neither very likely. b) A scandal involving Mrs May & other senior Conservatives, unlikely again. c) Events, again hard to see anything that would play to the opposition’s advantage. At least ten more years of Conservative then!

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4. dublinstreams - April 23, 2017

…to give the immpression of competition on the right

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An Cathaoirleach - April 23, 2017

The biggest danger to an incoming Conservative Government will be internal – from the UKIP wing of the party. An appalling prospect. The “centre” shifts.

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