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Wales yesterday, Scotland now and a further retreat in the polls for the BLP April 25, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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From the Guardian…

A Survation poll for the Sunday Post put the Tories at 28%, against 43% for the SNP, with Sturgeon’s party seven points lower than its vote in 2015. At that level, the Conservatives would win up to eight seats.

For the Sunday Times, a Panelbase survey put Tory support at its highest since the 1970s, at 33% against 44% for the SNP. In theory, that would give the Tories 12 Westminster seats – a total the party privately regards as fanciful.

And a basic point:

Yet such polls offer fresh evidence that the EU referendum result has disrupted politics in the same way the independence referendum did in 2014: this time the Tories appear to be the beneficiaries.

Indeed they do, but in such a way as to decouple the BLP from its base. And so Brexit wends its way through the British polity. If one had sought to design something that would functionally prove utterly divisive to left politics there it is difficult to think of a better way.

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1. An Cathaoirleach - April 25, 2017

Here is a link to a short note from Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University & a leading expert on Welsh Elections. http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/

Also Stephen Bush’s analysis in the New Statesman http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2017/04/shock-wales-yougov-poll-shows-labours-ukip-nightmare-coming-true

As he puts it,

“The word from Welsh Labour is that these figures “look about right” at least as far as the drop in the Labour vote, though of course they have no idea what is going on with their opponents’ vote share. As for the Conservatives, their early experiences on the doorstep do show the Ukip vote collapsing to their benefit.

One Labour MP said to me a few days again that they knew their vote was holding up – what they didn’t know was what was happening to their opponents. That’s particularly significant if you have a “safe seat” but less than 50 per cent of the vote.”

Voting UKIP as the first step to voting Conservative? Wales had a higher UKIP vote last time than England.

This piece by Peter Donaghy has put the BLP’s problems very graphically https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/24/labour-facing-real-risk-of-wipeout-as-their-polling-slump-continues/

The Conservatives appear to be moving in the direction of 400 plus seats, possibly as high as 450.

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bjg - April 26, 2017

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