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UK GE polling… May 1, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Some indications of change since the beginning of the election. The Labour vote appears to have firmed up marginally. The Tories are still polling in the mid to high 40s but the LP has firmed up a little. So polls appear to be showing it nudging 30. UKPollingReport suggests this may be a function of LP voters deciding to go for the LP. That’s good, this is an election where win or lose the LP needs every vote it can get to stem the Tory tide.

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1. Gerryboy - May 1, 2017

It looks like a Tory-led pro-Brexit tsunami, and Labour will be washed far out to sea.

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2. Gerryboy - May 1, 2017

* Tory-led pro-Brexit tsunami…

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3. Occasional lurker - May 2, 2017

Unfortunately the Tories got help today from Diane Abbot who drove the omnishambles bus off the motorway on TV.

Ranged from recruiting an extra 25 k police to then say 250k and stated the extra cost would be 300k for 100,000 thousand officers ie 30 per officer before finally hitting on 80 million.

It’s excruciating to listen to.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-interview-lbc-police-cost-numbers-awkward-excrutiating-a7712916.html

The BBC reporting on the ridicule she has earned.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-39779338

Labour cannot afford to look amateur even once on this election so looking down right incompetent isn’t good.

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4. An Cathaoirleach - May 3, 2017

As you say, there does appear to be a degree of “firming up” of voters’ intentions. Previously wavering supporters of the Labour Party, seem for the present, making a decision to stay.

There is of course a clear sign of solidity on the other side, with the decline of the UKIP vote, the Conservative Party are also substantially stronger than in 2015. Polls show them consistently between 7 & 10% ahead of their 2015 vote. There is also a sameness to all of the results showing Conservative/UKIP support in the order of 55%

The “firming up” of the LP appears to be a minor re-arrangement of the deckchairs on the political Titanic, offering, little reason not to bet
on a massive Conservative majority, well over 100 seats.

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5. fergal - May 3, 2017

Paraphrasing here
Andrew Marr- Nurses in this country used food banks to get by- are you happy with this kind of society
Theresa Ma Food banks are a complex issue and then blah , blah , blah
There’s labour’s opening there- an extreme English nationalist using Marie Antoinette language.
Being hungry is complex…in global Britain.

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An Cathaoirleach - May 3, 2017

Winning elections is about building coalitions. Mrs. May seems to be successfully doing that around a completely different narrative.

The BBC Newsnight piece last night (02/05/17) with the Labour & Co-op MP Gavin Shuker was revealing for a number of reasons.

1) The non-participation in electoral activity of the new Corbynist members.
2) The campaign is about shoring up the existing vote.
3)The best hope he has of holding his seat, is ironically, if Labour are not seen as a threat.

Mr Shuker achieved one of the largest increases in the Labour vote in 2015 & accepts he is in deep trouble. The depth of the problem is reflected by Stephen Bush’s list of the 50 most vulnerable Lab seats, http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/are-general-election-2017-polls-correct – Luton South is not on it, yet is now in play.

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