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Is the coalition likely to survive longer than people have expected it to? May 2, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Actually, that’s not a great question. The fact it has made it to a year seemed highly unlikely within a few months of its formation. But what of the latest news from yesterday? Reports that the ‘rotating’ Ministers arrangement in the current coalition has been delayed. I wonder is that in part – who knows how large or small a part – a function of a broader sense that this government may see out another year or so?

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1. Aengus Millen - May 2, 2017

Maybe and maybe all the back and forth between fg and ff is for show. On the other hand John Mcguiness recently said he didn’t think the agreement would last much past the election of a new fg leader. It’s notable that the happiest the parties have been is when the are scoring points against each other Coveney besting Cowan on rent control went over well with in fg. Similarly ff thought it was getting its own back when it briefly took the left wing parties side on water charges. So many big egos conflicting eventually they’ll be pushed too far.

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2. dublinstreams - May 2, 2017

presumbly they are waiting for a new Taoiseach to reshuffle the cabinet.

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3. Joe - May 2, 2017

No this FG-led capitalist lackey, neo-liberal, coalition for the rich will not last. It will be swept from power and consigned to the dustbin of history by the Irish people in a general election within the next 12 months. The people will replace it with an FF-led capitalist lackey, neo-liberal, coalition for the rich

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4. Dermot O Connor - May 2, 2017

FF thought they had wriggled off the coalition hook with this supply and demand mullarkey. Maybe so, but not guaranteed by a long shot.

When St. Leo the Likable or St. Simon the Smooth leads FG into the next election, be it 1 or 2 years out, it’s easy to imagine the current numbers returned (even FG numbers increased absent Enda’s HAL 9000 leadership dragging them down). In which case, FF are looking at facing ANOTHER 2 or 3 years in ‘opposition’ (gritting teeth until 2021 or 2022 (in other words, halfway through Trump’s second term). That’s a potential very long wait for them, and they’ve already been out in the cold for 6 years.

Wild card for FF slightly further out is Gerry retiring as SF leader sometime between the next election or the one following, allowing SF to eat more FF support without a beard from 1974 scaring the electorate. That alone should be good for another 2 or 3%.

So FF will have to sit back and watch a series of FG ministers enjoy the plum jobs and the pensions (if none of the power). All those pensions, sure, if ye can’t get a pension out of it, what’s the point?

Best case scenario is FF to swap positions with FG in the “in office but not in power” position. Not a pretty picture for them.

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