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Corbyn’s LP is (slightly) more popular than Miliband’s LP May 14, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Hardly the socialist dawn but this is a striking statistic.

The Tories hold a 15-point lead over Labour with less than four weeks to go to the general election on 8 June, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

Despite the substantial gap, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn now has a larger share of the vote than that enjoyed by Ed Miliband in 2015.

The Conservatives are on 47% (up 1 point on a week ago), with Labour on 32% (up 2 points).

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1. simonjkyte - May 14, 2017

We, yes and no… Cetainy it’s a fascinating situation because Labour in terms of vote share is +1 or +2 ahead of where it was in 2015 and +3 ahead of 2010. The Tory share of the vote is absolutely consistent with their share in 2010 and 2015 but +10, most of which is down to be 50% of the UKIP vote. It’s now clear that UKIP’s vote is completely disintegrating so May has the potential to gain a couple of points more. Labour could still gain share though and if Corbyn gets to 35% voteshare any case to get rid of him will be a weak one – he would have the same share of the vote that Labour got in 2005 … and election that it won.

What I think it means is places where UKIP had / little no base may behave very much more like a ‘normal’ election. That massive Tory lead is simply not going to exist. Of course, it also means where it was concentrated, May is going to have huge majorities – but some wastefully huge majorities. And there is something that should have been pointed out in the article (which may have been obvious to you). Polls are GB, election is UK, which makes for about a 1% share difference – Labour got about 31.2% of UK vote last time.

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2017

I wouldn’t disagree with any of that. Of course it all means that the Tories wind up with a substantial majority.

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simonjkyte - May 14, 2017

But perhaps not as big as many think. Because some of their vote is coming from the collapse of UKIP in constituencies where they already win. All teh signs are that UKIP is shedding 70% of its vote, 50% of that to the Tories. But in 2015 at least (since is a different matter as UKIP did aim for Labour voters) the UKIP vote was rather correlated with the Tory vote. So the Tories may be gaining vote share in places they already win

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2017

Obviously not the last word on the matter but the projections still seem to point to a lot of seats for the Tories…

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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simonjkyte - May 14, 2017

No, I agree but could I just ask you to do something on E Calc.? Build your own prediction in which the 2015 result is exactly replicated. i.e. everyone gets exactly the same share of teh vote as in 2015, even in Scotland. What’s the result? If it doesn’t look like a majority of around 17 give or take you know you have got to take all this with a pinch of salt.

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WorldbyStorm - May 14, 2017

Yes, definitely. The specific is problematic. That said the flip side of that is how much the broad trends are reflected in the models. So it could be still a strong Tory showing.

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2. oconnorlysaght - May 14, 2017

That will still leave the Parliamentary Party stuffed (literally) with Blairites.
I am reminded of the old 1960s joke: Q; What can we do to ensure the victory of socialism? A: Lets all go to Belper* and vote Tory.
* Belper was the constituency of George Brown, Labour’s deputy leader and spokesman of ‘reason’ as against dangerous reds like Harold Wilson.

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3. SMC - May 14, 2017

I hope the creep of 1-2 percentage points a week continues. If Labour was to get above 35 % it would be significant. However this is really about getting the vote out. It is such a boring election campaign, I think it will be won on the core vote. Will Corbyn get that youth vote bounce. Will all those new LP party members actually deliver themselves plus friends in votes. The uncertainty about the last two would still give me a glimmer of hope.

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4. Dermot O Connor - May 15, 2017
5. SMC - May 15, 2017

The ever so tiny gains continue. An interesting note in paragraph four
“they base it on their demographics – estimating respondent’s likelihood to vote based on their age and social grade – the assumption being that younger people and working class people will remain less likely than older, more middle class people to vote.”

Tiny glimmers of hope if that vote does comeout on the day

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9882

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6. Paddy Healy - May 22, 2017

Failure of Corbyn to Condemn IRA Outrageous-Tory Spokesperson Yesterday
But Socialist Party Criticised Corbyn Support for Irish Unity
Irish Sovereignty and the Left http://wp.me/pKzXa-ps
On September 14, 2015, the statement below was carried on the Socialist Party Website in a piece on the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party.
“Supporters of Militant said at that time(70,80s) that many like Corbyn and Ken Livingstone had “abandoned the policy of the right in favour of a no less disastrous policy of their own.”
The statement goes on to include the IRA, the British Army, extreme right wing loyalist allies of the British Army, as common enemies against which workers should unite when it advocates workers unity “against the barbarism of paramilitarism, repression and sectarianism around a socialist programme”
To describe the policy of Corbyn and Livingstone as “no less disastrous” than the policy of the British Imperial warmongers is perfectly outrageous and pro-imperialist

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