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Irish Labour down, but not out? May 16, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The Phoenix has an interesting piece last week on Aodhán Ó Ríordáin which is well worth a read. Anyhow in the course of this it argues that despite Labour’s lamentable national standing, at just 6% with not an hint of a boost from its conference, this ‘hides the fact that in Dublin the party is around 9% or 10%’ and suggests that that might be enough to allow ‘energetic individuals’ to get elected in the city.

What is the feeling about that proposition?

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1. dublinstreams - May 16, 2017

It almost makes me regret voting to save the Seanad, with all of the former Labour TDs abusing it to stay relevent AOR is on the Industrial and Commerical panel when does he ever do anything related to that?

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2. Tawdy - May 16, 2017

Here in Limerick it`s hard to see them hold the seat. Cian Prendiville came within 300 votes of Jan O`Sullivan. Next time around I`m inclined to think he will take it.

Bear in mind that Maurice Quinlivan took a FG seat for SF and looks to hold that.

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3. irishelectionliterature - May 16, 2017

I have a funny feeling that AOR is at so many things voters may get even more sick of him.
I wouldn’t discount Kevin Humphreys getting back. The sooner an election is, the worse is is for Labour.
One other thing is that Repealing the 8th, separating Church and State etc are issues which would have had Labour people at the forefront of campaigns previously. In those particular areas, Labour have long been overtaken by the Left and various grassroots movements.
They also don’t have the resources or staff that they used to.

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Aengus Millen - May 16, 2017

Sorry didn’t see you’d made my point already but I agree timing is key.

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4. Aengus Millen - May 16, 2017

I tend to think it depends on when the next election is. If it’s soon say within the year I think it will be very bad for labour they’ll likely be dealt a death blow. If it’s in the longer term I could see a modest recuperation of support leading them to at least retain most of the seats they currently hold. Depends on multiple factors though. For example when Mary Lou takes over SF at the end of the year does that give labour voters the excuse they need to switch to SF or are they dead set against. As with all things we’ll see.

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5. Paddy Healy - May 16, 2017

In the B&A Poll published last Sunday the Labour Score in the Dublin Region was Core 2.5% + or – 6%, Final Outcome byEliminating Dont know/undecided 3.2% +or- 6% See Tabular Data on banda.ie
Because the sample in any region is so small Dublin was so small the error is very large +or- 6% in Dublin. Regioal polls as a subset of national samples of C.1000 are notoriously unreliable. Of course if a sample of 1000 were taken in Dublin as happens before Euro elections the MoE would be circa 3%
As can be seen below The Labour national Core vote is 2.9%-higher than in Dublin

If the Labour vote were evenly spread throughout Ireland, it would get no seats based on the B&A poll. But because Social Democracy as a movement has always been so weak in Ireland, it has been historically been dominated by personalities. So Labour could hold its existing seats even if polled less than the 6% it polled in the last election.
There is no reason to believe that Labour will do better in Dublin than in the rest of the country.
Phoenix is probably using the mos recent Red C poll

No Significant Change in May B&A Poll- But Labour Drop below 3% in Core Vote for First Time this Year

Further Details http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh

B&A Poll May 14 Margin of Error c. 3%
Total FF FG Lab SF Other/GR Undecided
921 200 206 27 137 143 208
Core% 21.7 22.4 2.9 14.9 15.5 22.6
B&A Poll April Margin of Error c. 3%
Total FF FG Lab SF Other/GR undecided
971 207 201 33 157 138 235
Core% 21.3 20.7 3.4 16.2 14.2 24.2

Note: Unlike Red C, B&A gives the actual unprocessed figures as a core vote

Red C discards all those who say on a scale of 1 to 10 that their likelihood to vote is less than 8
Consequently undecideds in Red C “core vote” are typically 12%
Undecideds in B&A core vote are typically greater than 20%

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6. roddy - May 16, 2017

If SF took a FG seat in Limerick,it certainly was’nt by taking FG votes! Any votes that left FG went to save O’Sullivan.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 16, 2017

Nope – it was by getting a huge transfer from Solidarity (AAA at the time). Indeed if Prendeville had got ahead of O’Sullivan (and there was less than 300 votes between them) then Solidarity and FG would have won the seats instead of SF and LP.

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SMC - May 16, 2017

Actually, if AAA had improved on their 18% transfers from Fianna Fail in Limerick City, they might have won.
Cian Prendiville was so popular with Willie O Dea voters that Willie transferred more to him than to the Labour, SF or either of the FG candidates.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 16, 2017

A large slice of O’Dea’s vote is not a FF vote by a personal vote for O’Dea – a lot of it based in working class areas – that he has spent several decades nurturing.

The fact that the AAA was able to pick up some of the surplus is a testament to the work of Solidarity in the constituency.

The whole court case stuff between O’Dea and Quinlivan would not have endeared SF to O’Dea’s personal vote.

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SMC - May 17, 2017

Of course O Dea has ‘personal’ vote. Getting over 18% of his number 2 s for AAA is notable though and worthy of scrutiny. Fianna Fail nationally in 2016 got 24.3, O Dea got just over 27 % so most of his vote was core FF. However PR elections always throw up those odd pairings. Over 15 % of Cian’s voters who gave another preference gave it to Fine Gael over SF and Labour. Not sure ‘working class areas’ can explain that one

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WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2017

Interesting re vote transfers…

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Jolly Red Giant - May 18, 2017

There really is little of interest in the transfers in Limerick

AAA got 660 votes from O’Dea’s surplus – SF got 631 votes.

AAA got 252 votes when a bunch of candidates were eliminated (including Nora Bennis and GP) – SF got 224 votes.

The big difference was when the SD candidate was eliminated – AAA got 1128 votes and SF got 374 votes. This left AAA 277 votes behind LP, 301 votes behind SF and 455 behind 2nd FG.

AAA were eliminated with 6,724 votes. SF got 3492 votes (52%) – FG got 726 votes – LP got 835 votes – 1671 votes were non-transferable (25%). So more than 3 out of every 4 votes went to SF or were non-transferable – and huge number of votes to go to a single other party candidate or being non-transferable – way higher than normal. The votes to FG/LP are roughly equivalent to the transfers AAA got from SD.

It was distinctly noticeable that most AAA first preferences were either No.1 for AAA and nothing or No.1 for AAA and No.2 for SF and nothing. Many of the FG/LP transfers were No.5. No.6 on the ballot paper (I saw one No.8 – they voted for everyone except FG/LP/SF and the No.8 was for Noonan).

The same transfer pattern existed with the SF vote – except not quite as pronounced as with the AAA No.1s and if SF had been eliminated the same number (and possibly more) would have drifted to FG/LP.

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WorldbyStorm - May 18, 2017

I love it when some I have never met tells me what I will find interesting or not.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 18, 2017

WbS – you shouldn’t be so concerned – my comments were in response to SMC – not to you.

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WorldbyStorm - May 18, 2017

Clarity avoids confusion JRG.

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Tawdy - May 17, 2017

Ya need to take the blinkers off Rodders.

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7. Paddy Healy - May 16, 2017

The Complete Dublin Core Vote in May B&A was (rounded up) %
FF 19, FG 25, Lab 3, Sinn Fein 13, Ind/other 17, Dont-know/undecided 23

MoE +or- 6%

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