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Enda Resigning…. May 17, 2017

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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So he’s finally announced that he’s resigning at midnight. New FG leader elected on June 2nd.
Could be an interesting few weeks…. Will FF support a new leader?

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1. Aengus Millen - May 17, 2017

I don’t think so. From what I hear I think there are a couple scenarios in which this government collapses. If Simon wins Micheal doesn’t like having the Taoiseach as a constituency colleague and pulls it down. If Leo wins he either calls a snap election or is so arrogant that FF brings it down. Anyway soundings from Willie O’Dea and John Mcguiness suggest that FF is already thinking of using this as a chance to trigger an election. We’ll have to see if their cowardice and poll watching prevents them.

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WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2017

And a June election. Be interesting. A government just over, what a year or so old. FF might be unwise to do so though given those same polls.

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Dermot O Connor - May 17, 2017

FF would be mad to try. Remember Charlie running to the electorate on the back of a couple of good opinion polls? Blew up in his face.

FF tend to slide down during a campaign; this scenario would be seen as self-serving, and likely damage them. And again, for what? To return with the same setup, or with them held by the short-hairs?

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WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2017

Very true, that’s what I think will stay their hand. Then again, it is FF!

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EWI - May 17, 2017

They should have gone to the country on Irish Water.

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Aengus Millen - May 17, 2017

It force Charlie into coalition maybe it will finally force FG and FF into coalition

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Aengus Millen - May 17, 2017

I actually think we give FF too much credit if we think they are looking at this purely rationally. They would like the polls to be consistently in their favor but there seems to be a lot of anger on the FF backbench. Especially because this configuration means that the FF back bench is everyone who isn’t Micheal Martin.

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WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2017

Fair point. It could be that pressure pushes MM towards an election.And realistically what FF TD is likely to lose a seat if they go now? Pretty much zero of them.

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Tawdy - May 17, 2017

Willie O’Dea has already been canvassing here in Limerick since last week. He is usually ahead of the game like that.

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Tawdy - May 18, 2017

Now that the slug Noonan is stepping down and is to retire at the next election, oh happy days indeed. It’s going to make a very interesting election, when it happens, here in Limerick.

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2. Alibaba - May 17, 2017

‘Two weeks ago Mr Martin first claimed Mr Varadkar’s campaign on welfare fraud overstated savings by more than 1,000 per cent.
And he said Mr Coveney “has been promoting his record on the basis of a claim on new builds which inflates the true figure by 100 per cent”.

The Cork South-Central TD, a constituency colleague of Mr Coveney, referred to the two Ministers’ ambitions for the leadership of Fine Gael and said “clearly those Ministers are actively trying to promote their images and enhance their profiles”.

He said: “One can only conclude that Ministers are deliberately using misleading and untrue statistics, or they are failing to check their figures before issuing their various press releases.”‘

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/varadkar-accused-of-peddling-fake-news-on-welfare-fraud-claims-1.3086349

Fianna Fáil will always try to have it both ways. That’s why there was abject criticism of Frances Fitzgerald and Nóirín O’Sullivan over the massive scale of Garda scandals, but Martin bashed away any attempt to support a motion of no confidence. There is no FF appetite for an election yet, just game playing.

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3. ivorthorne - May 17, 2017

FG will, effectively, bring it down themselves I suspect. The two candidates want to make campaign promises without the constraints of their current confidence and supply arrangement.

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irishelectionliterature - May 17, 2017

Suspect Richard Bruton could end up as Taoiseach. A compromise candidate.
On a practical level Coveney as Taoiseach would surely put Martin’s seat at risk as Cork love their Taoiseach!
On the other hand FF absolutely hate Varadkar, and he’d surely manage to rile them.

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4. Ed - May 17, 2017

I haven’t been following Irish politics as closely as I usually would over the last while because British politics has been enough to keep track of (mostly for the wrong reasons, alas …), so take this with that in mind, but—is there really much reason for either FF or FG to want an election at this point? I just did some quick sums based on the 10 opinion polls so far this year. On average FF is 4% ahead of FG (28.8% to 24.8%); the biggest lead they’ve enjoyed is 9%, in a couple of polls they’ve been 1% behind. If there was going to be a snap election, they’d have good reason to think they could leapfrog FG, but not by a crushing majority. And they have the cautionary lesson of FG’s poll lead almost disappearing in the course of last year’s election campaign to think of as well.

I would have thought FF would want to be consistently polling well ahead of FG to make it worth their while triggering an early election; they would want to be absolutely sure of being top dog after the vote, and not by a narrow margin either. And even at their best, FF have been well short of the kind of numbers you’d need to ditch the whole ‘grand coalition’ arrangement (they got around 40% in elections from 1997 to 2007; FG got 36% in 2011). The average combined scored for FF-FG is 52.8%; 3% higher than last year, but neither of them looks like being in a position to do without the other (on a very good day, maybe FF would be able to strike a deal with SF and some of the smaller parties and indies, but have they really cleared the ground for that yet? Martin’s anti-SF rhetoric recently suggests not).

Martin went to a lot of trouble last year to get this ‘I can’t believe it’s not a coalition!’ thing off the ground; he knows there’s bigger things at stake here than advantage for FF or FG, the whole point of this arrangement is to keep left-wing, anti-austerity politics locked out of government without giving it a free run on the opposition benches either. If they’re going to have to work together anyway after a fresh election, does it really make sense to disrupt the current lash-up? Of course there might be an issue or a scandal that pushes them over the edge, but after they’ve got past Irish Water and the stuff with the Guards in the last couple of months, will a change of personnel in FG really make that much of a difference?

(I’m interested to know whether that all makes as much sense to other people as it seems to make to me—I don’t have my ear to the ground, I haven’t been home since Xmas, so there could well be angles on this that I’m not seeing.)

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irishelectionliterature - May 18, 2017

You summed it up well there Ed. The election will be when FF decides to pull the plug. I also think they will honour the agreement with FG which is for another while yet. Otherwise if FF are in the same position they wouldn’t like FG to pull the plug.
I don’t think the business of being opposition and supporting FG at the same time is working out well for FF.

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RosencrantzisDead - May 18, 2017

This accords with my feelings also. An election campaign would also force FF to address questions they are keen to avoid: will the go into coalition with FG? Would they go in with SF? Would they have FG give confidence-and-supply?

These are existential questions for Fianna Fail. Dealing with them requires they accept the unlikelihood of returning to the glory years. There is no response that will not anger some part of the parliamentary party or membership. I think Martin knows this. He will not want to call an election until there is the prospect of an acceptable, alternative government.

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5. irishelectionliterature - May 18, 2017

I see Michael Noonan will be stepping down too. So thats two Cabinet positions at least that can be promised by the contenders.
Richard Bruton not running either.

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